CircularLogic
Joined: Aug 22, 2003
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 Posted:
Nov 28, 2005 - 23:02 |
 
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| macike wrote: | | macike wrote: | I've made some probability calculations and here comes the outcome (in short):
- it is always worth to GFI once,
- it is always worth to GFI twice if you have a spare RR,
- it is worth to GFI twice if you have not a spare RR and your target roll is 5+ or 6+. |
I would like to add the update for a blizzard:
- it is always worth to GFI once if you have a spare RR,
- it is worth to GFI once without a spare RR if you need 6+,
- it is never worth to GFI twice if you have not a spare RR,
- it is worth to GFI twice without a spare RR if your target roll is 5+ or 6+.
Just to remind - target roll means the value you need to dice. So it doesn't matter whether pass has to be accurate or just not fumbbled. |
Passing on a 6+ in a Blizzard means the passer has AG1 or is in 1 or more TZ, which makes the whole point obsolete anyways - AG1-players needing to pass in a Blizzard will either make it for sure, no matter how many rolls, or won`t make it no matter how much is calculated. |
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macike
Joined: Jun 25, 2005
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| Posted:
Nov 29, 2005 - 09:33 |
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| CircularLogic wrote: |
Passing on a 6+ in a Blizzard means the passer has AG1 or is in 1 or more TZ, which makes the whole point obsolete anyways - AG1-players needing to pass in a Blizzard will either make it for sure, no matter how many rolls, or won`t make it no matter how much is calculated. |
Leaving TZ means dodge and this is not taken into consideration as it would strongly impact the calculations.
Just imagine that an AG1 player caught a scattering ball and he is your last hope for winning a game.  If you manage to have a spare RR for the pass the chance of successful 5+ roll is 5/9 (contrast - 11/36 for 6+). That's over 50% (contrast almost 33% for 6+). Quite a difference, isn't it?
I agree that everything collapses if you don't manage a 3+ GFI roll. But it means you would not manage an accurate pass neither.
EDIT: 'Treeman' substituted with 'AG1 player' |
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Last edited by macike on %b %29, %2005 - %10:%Nov; edited 1 time in total |
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Cloggy
Joined: Sep 23, 2004
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Nov 29, 2005 - 09:51 |
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I'm so jealous of people who have trees that can use rerolls.
I want one too....... |
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Proud owner of three completed Ranked grids, sadly lacking in having a life. |
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Curro
Joined: Jun 07, 2005
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Nov 29, 2005 - 09:58 |
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/me wants one too
/me is tired of seeing his trees in the ground because of those damned POW/SKULLS. *sigh* |
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macike
Joined: Jun 25, 2005
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 Posted:
Nov 29, 2005 - 10:03 |
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| Cloggy wrote: | I'm so jealous of people who have trees that can use rerolls.
I want one too....... |
ROTFL I still can't forget the old good times when BG could have General skills and use team RRs. 
/me blinks because of a tear |
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Hold him, thrill him, kick him, kill him!!! |
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MrMojo
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
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Nov 29, 2005 - 10:16 |
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Nobody's perfect. Not even you, Macike. |
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Jesus loves me this I know, 'cos my Bible tells me so. |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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Nov 29, 2005 - 10:24 |
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/me prefers +ST Ogres...
They don't take root, they move 5...
/me drools |
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macike
Joined: Jun 25, 2005
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| Posted:
Nov 29, 2005 - 10:26 |
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| MrMojo wrote: | | Nobody's perfect. Not even you, Macike. |
Wait a minute. I am Nobody. ;P |
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