PurpleChest
Joined: Oct 25, 2003
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I'm talking principally here to those, and you know who you are, who enjoy their numbers.
Personally I'm of a more creative, even artistic, bent. Beyond some mild Sodoku I leave numbers alone.
But you don't. Every few months one of you gets bored enough to write endlessly about the Random number generator. Others get drawn in and a vertible frenzy of logical thought ensues.
The problem is its all entirely pointless, repetitive and dull. Its like TV reports where 'scientists have proved that the perfect cup of tea is X degrees celcius', and the world thinks 'well I'll continue to make tea the way i like it, and WTF is a 'scientist' doing researching such tripe, where's the cure for cancer?'
What I'm saying is do something usefull and insightfull, please.
To wet your appetite here is an idea drawn from the RNG threads: One of the examples that caused the dullest debate was an AG3-AG3 short pass, and the probabilities of success using and not using a reroll. Why not math this out, show us the stats at various ranges. When does the reroll on the innacurate throw become not worth it with the probability of a fumble and of a caught innacurate pass. What about if diving catch is used. Here you have a complex probability tree and an interesting need to interpret and assign values to outcomes making the final math, once debated and settled on, STILL open to a variety of interpretations. As a bonus it would be interesting and valuable to the community. |
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XtremeXwing
Joined: Dec 03, 2004
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 Posted:
Jan 04, 2006 - 15:15 |
 
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| PurpleChest wrote: | | I'm talking principally here to those, and you know who you are, who enjoy their numbers. |
Not me then  |
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macike
Joined: Jun 25, 2005
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| Posted:
Jan 04, 2006 - 16:24 |
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| PurpleChest wrote: | | To wet your appetite here is an idea drawn from the RNG threads: One of the examples that caused the dullest debate was an AG3-AG3 short pass, and the probabilities of success using and not using a reroll. Why not math this out, show us the stats at various ranges. |
It has already been done. Check out the Passing Calculator in miscellanous downloads section.
No need for further dull debates. |
_________________
Hold him, thrill him, kick him, kill him!!! |
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Optihut
Joined: Dec 16, 2004
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| Posted:
Jan 04, 2006 - 16:43 |
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While I only remembered that it was already covered, macike could even provide a link. Marvellous!
And now it's back to finding that cure for cancer. |
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maxlongstreet
Joined: Oct 18, 2005
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Jan 04, 2006 - 20:01 |
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The only problem with the throwing calculator is that it doesn't include the possibility of a reroll. Here are a couple quick ones, assuming no pass/catch skills or tackle zones:
AG 3 to AG 3 short pass with reroll: 58%
AG 3 to AG 3 quick pass with reroll: 74%
AG 4 to AG 4 short pass with reroll: 83%
AG 4 to AG 4 quick pass with reroll: 93%
Rerolls are good... |
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PurpleChest
Joined: Oct 25, 2003
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Also doesnt answer my question. At what range/stage/point does it become a mistake to reroll an innacurate pass. I would always reroll a fumble. But when should i accept innacuracy, save the reroll for another day and hope it is caught by the intended reciepient anyway? |
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Idolen
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jan 04, 2006 - 20:39 |
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His chest may be Purple, but there's no wrong with his ideas for math-freaks out there...
Nice thread purple. |
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1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d |
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Cyco
Joined: Nov 30, 2003
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Jan 04, 2006 - 20:52 |
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Interesting. It would like to calculate it, but I too tired to do it now...  |
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Never drive faster then your angels can fly. |
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Meech
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
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Jan 04, 2006 - 20:58 |
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I thought this was a thread about horse racing... |
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Putting the FU in fumbbl since 9/2005 |
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Optihut
Joined: Dec 16, 2004
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Jan 04, 2006 - 21:02 |
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| PurpleChest wrote: | | Also doesnt answer my question. At what range/stage/point does it become a mistake to reroll an innacurate pass. I would always reroll a fumble. But when should i accept innacuracy, save the reroll for another day and hope it is caught by the intended reciepient anyway? |
That depends on the situation: If a fumble leaves you in a bad situation - e.g. your thrower is surrounded by opposing players - then you wouldn't reroll it. If on the other hand your catcher needs to make the touchdown and do it now, you should reroll.
Situational play, it's not really possible to cram it into formulas. If it were, programming a computer player would be easy. |
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vanGorn
Joined: Feb 24, 2004
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Jan 04, 2006 - 22:09 |
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At TTM I never use pro on a miss, only on fumbles. Though I haven't calculated the chances it's quite obvious that the risk of a fumble is bigger than the chance to hit the target square. And sometimes the deviation can become an advantage, too. |
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Gimme a pint of fungus beer!
Then we will climb the ladder.
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Stunke
Joined: Sep 20, 2005
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Jan 04, 2006 - 22:24 |
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I'll risk being totally stomped here, but doesn't the pass/catch skills allow rerolls?
I mean, if you got someone throwing the ball without the pass, all you have to do is click the pass skill button, and you got the new probabilty.
AFAIK you aren't able to reroll those rolls, which have already been rerolled due to skills, so it isn't that big an issue after all.
Or am I totally off track here? |
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vanGorn
Joined: Feb 24, 2004
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Jan 04, 2006 - 22:28 |
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| Stunke wrote: | I'll risk being totally stomped here, but doesn't the pass/catch skills allow rerolls?
I mean, if you got someone throwing the ball without the pass, all you have to do is click the pass skill button, and you got the new probabilty.
AFAIK you aren't able to reroll those rolls, which have already been rerolled due to skills, so it isn't that big an issue after all.
Or am I totally off track here? |
While the "catch"-reroll is rolled automatically the client asks you before using the "pass"-skill for the reroll. |
_________________
Gimme a pint of fungus beer!
Then we will climb the ladder.
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maxlongstreet
Joined: Oct 18, 2005
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| Posted:
Jan 04, 2006 - 22:40 |
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If the pass is inaccurate, you know that if you reroll, you have a 17% chance of fumbling. And your chances of completing it if inaccurate at first are obviously 0% if you don't reroll, and if you do reroll just use the % in the regular pass calculator, since you now don't have a reroll to back you pu. |
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zerkalo
Joined: Dec 12, 2005
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Jan 04, 2006 - 22:49 |
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The probabilities of fumbling are these for AG3 player:
long bomb - 50%
long pass - 33%
short pass - 16%
quick pass - 16%
I would only reroll short and quick passes. Longer passes only if I need a touchdown very badly. And I wouldnt reroll if there is a risk opponent scores if I fumble.
Mostly rerolling a throw is a 1-2 second decision...
Here one other "interesting" calculation - whether to dodge with AG 3 player, or take 2 GFI (to blitz for example):
without reroll:
2 GFI = 25/36
dodge = 2/3 = 24/36
with reroll:
2 GFI = 198/216
dodge = 8/9 = 192/216 |
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