Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 13:06 |
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humm yea i could do that, so games against those races don't count
in the lowest bracket 960-1210 there were 36414 games played, 1629 involving Ogres, Flings and Gobbos (4%)
so its not that big a deal, i doubt it would change the relative orders around anyway
biggest difference is wood elves, yea. and my results show strong leaning toward fast agile teams
i think maybe WE win almost all the time against certain races, but against most races they lose just below average?
that way, their win rate overall would be high (my approach) but their 'number races they win against' would be low (i think that was VM's approach?) |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 13:12 |
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what i'd really like is a fresh scrape of data. this set includes 107,000 games, but it was early in the adoption of the ruleset
more dataz would show out averages better, in some categories there's very few games played
newer dataz would show reaction to the ruleset stabilising, metagame stabilising, etc.
i've done all this in excel and it would be fairly easy to just drop new data in from the html style that hito first produced and update my charts |
Last edited by Sp00keh on %b %23, %2011 - %13:%Dec; edited 1 time in total |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 13:16 |
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is there a way of actually having images so they're shown on the site? or can i only link to them |
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Garion
Joined: Aug 19, 2009
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 13:20 |
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I think there is an interesting trend on show here which quite clearly (to me) points out the reason for all the CPOMB hate.
win percentage drop
Lizardmen -8.26
undead -10.44
Dwarf -9.67
Norse -11.36
Orc -9.78
Because this counts draws as losses you can see that these teams above really suffer at a high TV in terms of winning. I would suggest that these teams are possibly drawing alot of games or losing games against the CPOMB teams that seem to be very common at high TV. Its not that the CPOMB teams themselves win too often, it may be that they cause all but the ag4 teams to lose and draw more that is the big issue for people.
Sp00keh wrote: | is there a way of actually having images so they're shown on the site? or can i only link to them |
You need to upload them to your gallery, then put them in a thread like this- Code: | [img]file path here[/img] |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 13:32 |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 13:34 |
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Garion wrote: | I don't think Ogres, Flings and Gobbos were counted anywhere other than the first Tv bracket, they dont show on his reading, and in that TV bracket flings and goblins are okay really. Ogres are still pointless mind. |
i counted them in all the brackets. i didn't show them when doing the 3x bracketed rankings which were a comparison to your lists
win rates in depth for the 3 teams:
960-1210 TV
Halfling 20.9% 461 played
Goblin 20.3% 543 played
Ogre 17.1% 625 played
1210-1460 TV
Ogre 17.7% 269 played
Goblin 17.2% 257 played
Halfling 13.9% 176 played
1460-1710 TV
Ogre 15.9% 225 played
Halfling 10.4% 104 played
Goblin 10.1% 58 played
1710-1960 TV
Halfling 25.0% 4 played
Ogre 10.5% 120 played
Goblin 0.0% 5 played
1960-2210 TV
Ogre 16.7% 18 played
Goblin 0.0% 0 played
Halfling 0.0% 0 played
2210-2460 TV
Ogre 24.9% 8 played
Necromantic 22.2% 9 played
Lizardman 20.0% 5 played
Undead 14.3% 7 played
Slann 14.1% 7 played
Goblin 0.0% 1 played
Halfling 0.0% 0 played
at the end there, it shows the data really running out. the highest bracket, even the most active team (chaos) has only played 204 games
also its basically impossible to get gobs/flings over 2000TV
also at very high end, ogres have some results but this is probably just due to 1 coach, so not worth drawing any analysis from |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 13:42 |
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Garion wrote: | I think there is an interesting trend on show here which quite clearly (to me) points out the reason for all the CPOMB hate.
win percentage drop
Lizardmen -8.26
undead -10.44
Dwarf -9.67
Norse -11.36
Orc -9.78 |
that's what i was looking for as well
but on the other hand it could be due to these teams having a strong natural starting point.
maybe their str4, good basic skills, or whatever
and then by the time the other teams have also developed, this early advantage has faded, in other words loads of block for norse isn't amazing once everyone else has block.
the cpomb teams don't drastically climb once they reach the middle-high TV, where their players would have 3-4 skills like i was expecting to see as proof of cpomb's dominance:
mutation access teams - change as TV climbs:
Skaven -1.26%
Chaos Dwarf -3.65%
Chaos 4.83%
Nurgle 4.52%
Chaos Pact -8.52% |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 13:56 |
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still isn't working :/
file is in my gallery
Code: | [img]http://fumbbl.com/i/353014[/img] |
my previous links i'd used IMG tags on the uploads i did to tinypic and imageshack hosting sites, any ideas? |
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Garion
Joined: Aug 19, 2009
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 13:59 |
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While i agree in terms of undead and Norse who theoretically should be doing better at a low TV and possibly worse later on - Orcs, Dwarves and Lizardmen are all Av9 teams, who have traditionally done very well at all TVs, the only reason I can think of for them not doing so well anymore at a high TV is CPOMB.
Pact and Chaos Dwarves will struggle a bit more than usuall at a high TV because they have a lower average St than Nurgle and Chaos and will in all probabilty be getting battered by those other CPOMB teams, and there is also a good chance these CPOMB teams are messing up each others stats somewhat by drawing a lot of their games. While the Ag 4 teams are better at getting wins than any team. No suprise there really. |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 14:25 |
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yea, thinking about it a bit more,
claw players are generally slower than average, so although they can smash other team about (which will stick in people's minds), they still may not get the win and could often be held to a draw
in other words, you can crush your enemies, drive them before you, and hear the lamentations of the women - but unless you score more touchdowns than they did, it still goes down in hito's results as a loss |
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Garion
Joined: Aug 19, 2009
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 14:33 |
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Its working fine now, you just need to wait for an admin to approve the image before people can see it.
what would be interesting to me is if you get rid of all the ag4 teams and mirror matches and see how teams win ratio changes then, I would expect all the CPOMB teams to do a hell of a lot better then.
There is no doubt this rule set has without doubt benefited the Elf teams the greatest because of journeymen, wizards as inducements and the introduction of wrestle. I think if you did that test above it would show how much all the other teams suffer at the hands of cpomb more, which is a shame as it has limited diversity a lot and also stopped the teams that can hit elf teams the hardest from being more popular, by this i mean teams like humans, norse and undead etc... which i personally think are the hardest teams for elves to face. |
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dode74
Joined: Aug 14, 2009
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 14:36 |
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Just to be clear, this counts draws as losses? If so it's a new metric and I don't think particularly helpful. |
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Garion
Joined: Aug 19, 2009
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 14:43 |
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It is useful at seeing which teams win the most, as is its intention. You can also draw some other conclusions as well as discussed on this page, from how certain teams win alot less at higher TVs than lower TV. It is just as useful as any other stats really. |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 14:50 |
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yea, draws as losses. thats what hito's data says
it'd be possible to reconstruct draw rate because he shows both sides of the matchup
eg his format is of the style:
amazon vs chaos- games played 136 win rate 40%
chaos vs amazon- games played 136 win rate 45%
hence the draw rate would be 15%
i've not included, not sure how i'd add it in as my excel is all structured around just 'win rate'
27.7% of the games in the sample are draws, at most i'd expect it to vary only between 25-30% with the elf style teams probably draw less and the slow teams to draw more |
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Garion
Joined: Aug 19, 2009
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  Posted:
Dec 23, 2011 - 14:52 |
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