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Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 13:46 Reply with quote Back to top

Ok, I am really bad at probabilities.

Could someone tell me which is more likely to be removed from the pitch?

Av8 zombies or Av7 Thick Skull Skeletons?

How does that math change when claw comes into the picture?

How does that change vs MB?

How does it change vs Claw plus MB?

Thanks in advance to anyone who can help me with this.
Harad



Joined: May 11, 2014

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 14:08 Reply with quote Back to top

I think this is right but a) I didn't check the rules and b) I started to go cross eyed when doing it Smile but hopefully with it all set out you can easily correct for any slips I've made.

Normal - zombie = 9+ followed by 8+ = 10/36 * 15/36 = 150 / 1296
Normal - skeleton = 8+ followed by 9+ = 15/36 * 10/36 = 150 / 1296
Claw - zombie = 8+ followed by 8+ = 15/36 * 15/36 = 225 / 1296
Claw - skeleton = 8+ followed by 9+ = 15/36 * 10/36 = 150 / 1296
MB - zombie = 9+ followed by 7+ or 8 followed by 8+ = 10/36 * 21/36 + 5/36 * 15/36 = 285 / 1296
MB - skeleton = 8+ followed by 8+ or 7 followed by 9+ = 15/36 * 15/36 + 6/36 * 10/36 = 285 / 1296
Claw + MB - zombie = 8+ followed by 7+ or 7 followed by 8+ = 15/36 * 21/36 + 6/36 * 15/36 = 405 / 1296
Claw + MB - skeleton = 8+ followed by 8+ or 7 followed by 9+ = 15/36 * 15/36 + 6/36 * 10/36 = 285 / 1296
Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 14:17 Reply with quote Back to top

Harad wrote:
I think this is right but a) I didn't check the rules and b) I started to go cross eyed when doing it Smile but hopefully with it all set out you can easily correct for any slips I've made.

Normal - zombie = 9+ followed by 8+ = 10/36 * 15/36 = 150 / 1296
Normal - skeleton = 8+ followed by 9+ = 15/36 * 10/36 = 150 / 1296
Claw - zombie = 8+ followed by 8+ = 15/36 * 15/36 = 225 / 1296
Claw - skeleton = 8+ followed by 9+ = 15/36 * 10/36 = 150 / 1296
MB - zombie = 9+ followed by 7+ or 8 followed by 8+ = 10/36 * 21/36 + 5/36 * 15/36 = 285 / 1296
MB - skeleton = 8+ followed by 8+ or 7 followed by 9+ = 15/36 * 15/36 + 6/36 * 10/36 = 285 / 1296
Claw + MB - zombie = 8+ followed by 7+ or 7 followed by 8+ = 15/36 * 21/36 + 6/36 * 15/36 = 405 / 1296
Claw + MB - skeleton = 8+ followed by 8+ or 7 followed by 9+ = 15/36 * 15/36 + 6/36 * 10/36 = 285 / 1296


Am I reading this correctly?

Zombies and skeletons are equally likely to stay on the pitch until claw comes into the picture? Once that happens, the zombies are removed more quickly.

However, skeletons will be stunned more often than zombies because their armor will break more often.
ArrestedDevelopment



Joined: Sep 14, 2015

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 14:26 Reply with quote Back to top

I actually really like skellies on undead, the extra MA makes a lot of things much eaiser.

And just for fun - +AV on a skeleton is actually tv efficient compared to thick skull and +MA on a zombie Wink

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Harad



Joined: May 11, 2014

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 14:51 Reply with quote Back to top

And of course there is no differentiation between kos and casualties. And no allowance for regen so the game long picture is not complete.
Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 15:26 Reply with quote Back to top

So essentially you are picking up movement with skeletons at the price of being stunned more often. That may be worth the trade.

But in the end, lets not forget that both players suck.
FinnDiesel



Joined: Mar 07, 2018

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 16:09 Reply with quote Back to top

Kondor wrote:
So essentially you are picking up movement with skeletons at the price of being stunned more often. That may be worth the trade.

But in the end, lets not forget that both players suck.
Smile

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MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 16:10 Reply with quote Back to top

I think Zombies are better when facing no damage skills and when facing MB only, while vs Claw/ClawMB Skeletons are better.
And yes, even if a Skeleton is not removed from the pitch, he tends to be Stunned more often (you should consider the Stunned state as if he were temporarily out of the pitch) and although faster than a Zombie on paper, this hampers his actual Movement and removes his Tackle zone as well.

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Last edited by MattDakka on Nov 16, 2018 - 17:35; edited 1 time in total
PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 17:34 Reply with quote Back to top

With out worrying about the actual math between a zombie and skeleton and the preference of movement over stun/ko.

Skeletons look cooler, they seem to foul better and when they take a RIP against them their head flies into the upper deck to the fans delight. ZOmbies just crumble into a mound of dead flesh, which for some is fun but gets boring real fast. Now skeletal heads flying all over the pitch and into the stands....never gets boring.

So in the end Skeletons are better for the fans.

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Arktoris



Joined: Feb 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 17:41 Reply with quote Back to top

PainState wrote:
With out worrying about the actual math between a zombie and skeleton and the preference of movement over stun/ko.

Skeletons look cooler, they seem to foul better and when they take a RIP against them their head flies into the upper deck to the fans delight. ZOmbies just crumble into a mound of dead flesh, which for some is fun but gets boring real fast. Now skeletal heads flying all over the pitch and into the stands....never gets boring.

So in the end Skeletons are better for the fans.


You can also use their rib cages as xylophones as seen in Danse Macabre cartoons.


ArrestedDevelopment wrote:
And just for fun - +AV on a skeleton is actually tv efficient compared to thick skull and +MA on a zombie Wink


I accidentally took +AV over +MV on a skeleton. Looked at him and said "ok, now I have a +MV zombie with free thick skull" and was fine with the misclick.

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Endzone



Joined: Apr 01, 2008

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 19:05 Reply with quote Back to top

ArrestedDevelopment wrote:
I actually really like skellies on undead, the extra MA makes a lot of things much eaiser.

And just for fun - +AV on a skeleton is actually tv efficient compared to thick skull and +MA on a zombie Wink


Only AD would put +MA and thick skull on a zombie! Wink
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 19:31 Reply with quote Back to top

My basic view is that Skeletons are better players, but Zombies are better fodder, and both players are best used as fodder or foulers. I could see how format could matter: like in NBFL, where everybody's at insane TV and you always run a relatively full roster, you might want three or more Skeletons, but in Ranked or Box I tend to just run one or two. (Funny enough, whether it's 1 or 2 has less to do with strategy than economics, and is mostly a function of kill rate, attrition, and in BB2016, cash on hand.)

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Nov 16, 2018 - 19:54 Reply with quote Back to top

If we look only at stats and so forth.

Zombie has to choose between +AV or +MA you take +AV all day long. +AV balances out the "odds" that the skeleton has over the Zombie with his thick skull.

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Krogg



Joined: Nov 25, 2017

Post   Posted: Nov 17, 2018 - 17:36 Reply with quote Back to top

Here's how I think through this somewhat complicated mess.

Thick skull doesn't affect the casualty percentage, it just converts one of the possible KO injury rolls to stun. On a given knockdown without Mighty Blow where armor IS broken, a skeleton will be stunned 72% of the time, KO'd 11% and CAS'd 17%; and a zombie will be stunned 58% of the time, KO'd 25% and CAS'd 17% (calculations are old but I think accurate and numbers are rounded off). This explains why a skeleton will be stunned much more often and will be KO'd less.

A skeleton will be CAS'd more often than a zombie related to having its armor broken more often (AV7 vs AV8). In terms of numbers, on a knockdown without Mighty Blow, AV 7 armor breaks 42% of the time vs 28% for AV8. If we look at all knockdowns without Mighty Blow, an AV 7 skeleton with Thickskull will NOT have its armor broken 58% of the time; and WILL be stunned 30%, KO'd 5% and CAS'd 7% of the time. An AV 8 zombie will NOT have it's armor broken 72% of the time; and WILL be stunned 16%, KO'd 7% and CAS'd 5% of the time.

Versus Mightly Blow, AV7 breaks 58% of the time vs 42% for AV8. Mighty Blow also increases the relative CAS difference between the two as it will be modifying the injury roll more often vs AV7 than AV8. On a knockdown vs MB, an AV7 Skeleton with Thickskull will NOT have armor broken 42% of the time; and WILL be stunned 36%, KO'd 8% and CAS'd 14% of the time. On a knockdown vs MB, an AV 8 zombie will NOT have armor broken 58% of the time; and WILL be stunned 20%, KO'd 12% and CAS'd 10% of the time.

It's interesting (to me) to note that the KO + CAS %'s are equal in the above calculations, with or without MB, with zombies getting more KO's and skeletons more CAS's. Skeletons are also stunned way more often.

Claw obviously negates any AV advantage and would relatively benefit the skeletons.

Personally, I just prefer the extra durability of zombies and the slight advantage in maintaining numbers between drives over the movement advantage of skeletons. I find their movement advantage mitigated by being stunned so much 😊. And, the mummies are even slower.... To be fair regeneration would also mitigate the CAS advantage of zombies by 50%, in terms of players coming back for the next drive.

Anyway, sorry for the long post (it's my first). Have learned a lot lurking over the years...

Cheers.
pythrr



Joined: Mar 07, 2006

Post   Posted: Nov 17, 2018 - 19:21 Reply with quote Back to top

zombies is better

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