LeFrench
Joined: Oct 03, 2019
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 Posted:
Mar 16, 2023 - 03:23 |
 
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I'd really like the option to see my overall dice stats - for a team over their matches, for me as the coach overall or both!
for instance - I have a strong suspicion that skulls are attracted to my block dice - I'd really like to know if that's true or not!
Realise there is probably a niche set of players who'd want this info, but i don't think? it would be hard to aggregate since it's already there for each match? |
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Kinks
Joined: Feb 28, 2007
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Mar 16, 2023 - 03:55 |
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Hey if you enjoy looking at those stats great. But, I wouldn't recommend it. They are largely meaningless. So what if 25 out of 50 of you block dice are skulls? If you made 25 2 dice blocks and 1 was a skull and the other was a pow then you had perfect dice despite rolling 3 times the average number of skulls.
Likewise, what if you only roll 4 skulls in an entire game, but they happened all at once on a vital blitz that cost you the game. Was you lucky to roll below average skulls? |
_________________
Better lucky than good |
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Mnaisoa
Joined: Mar 16, 2023
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Mar 16, 2023 - 04:07 |
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HimalayaP1C7
Joined: Feb 03, 2021
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Mar 16, 2023 - 09:04 |
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If you click on the block dice they switch to show in percentages. So you could establish if your dice are unfair by going to 20 of your games and note down the % of skulls you rolled for each and analyse. Don’t bother though, it’s very common for people to think they have bad dice, they don’t.
If you already know that something is a ‘niche’ requirement it’s very unlikely to get picked up by the devs. It’s also advisable not to suggest that something should be easy to do, it’s notoriously difficult to estimate how much work is involved in these types of things. |
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Hovring
Joined: Oct 29, 2003
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Mar 16, 2023 - 10:51 |
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It would be a really boring statistics with 16-17% on each die roll, since after 10-20 games there will be close to no difference. As Himalaya say "it's common for people to think they have bad dice, they don't". This is called negativity bias.
Negativity bias is a cognitive tendency to give more weight to negative experiences than positive ones, often leading to an overestimation of the likelihood of negative outcomes. It is not a statistical reality, but rather a subjective perception influenced by personal beliefs and experiences.
If you don't believe it just try taking the average of your X recent games and stop once skull % is between 16 and 17. |
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Christer
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| HimalayaP1C7 wrote: | | It’s also advisable not to suggest that something should be easy to do, it’s notoriously difficult to estimate how much work is involved in these types of things. |
In this case, that absolutely holds true. The statistics aren't "already there" for each match. When you click on that link, a backend tool loads the replay, does a scan through it to find the dice rolls and compiles the statistics you get to see. That's why there's a little bit of hesitation when you click that stats link.
That being said, it would certainly be possible to automatically do that for each match played and store the data, and aggregate it by coach. However, I don't see the point of doing that considering it'll just average out to 16% as Hovring mentioned. |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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Mar 16, 2023 - 11:34 |
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Assuming you had bad dice, by playing lots of games you will get good dice eventually.
In the long run dice average out, so, better spending the time playing games rather than worrying too much about dice stats. 
The more games you play, the better the dice distribution will be. Try to get the closer you can to infinite number of games!  |
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Storr
Joined: Mar 25, 2020
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Mar 16, 2023 - 14:12 |
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You can now switch the team colours so that your team is blue, that should improve your dice significantly |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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Mar 16, 2023 - 14:14 |
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DaCoach
Joined: Jul 22, 2004
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Mar 16, 2023 - 15:22 |
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Wow, the display of turnovers, cas and KO over the game turns is awesome indeed. |
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Malmir
Joined: May 20, 2008
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Mar 16, 2023 - 18:28 |
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| Hovring wrote: | It would be a really boring statistics with 16-17% on each die roll, since after 10-20 games there will be close to no difference. As Himalaya say "it's common for people to think they have bad dice, they don't". This is called negativity bias.
Negativity bias is a cognitive tendency to give more weight to negative experiences than positive ones, often leading to an overestimation of the likelihood of negative outcomes. It is not a statistical reality, but rather a subjective perception influenced by personal beliefs and experiences.
If you don't believe it just try taking the average of your X recent games and stop once skull % is between 16 and 17. |
I'd beg to differ with this. Not about the overall percentage working out, but as someone mentioned earlier, matches can sometimes come down to one key roll. If those consistently fail over a series of games, you're unlikely to be winning and I would say are entitled to say you are on a bad dice run. I'll give you an example. Last night my Chaos played some Dwarves and had them penned in, in their own corner. We did quite a few cas in the match, to the point where my oppo commented how great my dice were (I didn't disagree at that point). But I was out of rr due to a flurry of skulls/both downs in the first two turns. I felt I had to rr them to stay in the drive early on and that worked. As I said, I had him pinned in the corner and he's on no rr too. His runner makes a dodge (no rr) and then manages to use his pass skill to rr and lauch the ball downfield (haven't checked but I assumer he rolled a five). My chance of scoring has gone. Fair enough - a 3+ 5+ with a rr for the latter has a reasonable chance of working. Because he didn't actually make the pass, it's now my turn. Luckily my wrestler is nicely in range for a 2d on the carrier. With any form of pow/both down I'm safe and even a push leaves him needing 4 gfi. Cue skulls and he makes the gfits to walk it in and now I'm 1-0 down. For me that's bad dice, though a glance at the match would probably look like I was lucky with all those cas. |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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Mar 16, 2023 - 18:53 |
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Also, it's important to know when the dice average out.
Dor example, if I suffer 3 CAS early in the game it won't make a difference for me if on turn 16 I will deal 3 CAS on turn 16.
Early bad dice can put you on the back foot and force you to risk more to make up for the bad start, and this higher risk can lead to more failures.
In my opinion, a big reason of frustration about bad dice in BB is that a match can last 1 hour.
Bad dice happen, but the icing on the cake is wasting 1 hour being unable to try something.
In case of shorter luck-based games, for example, a slot machine, you win or lose quickly and at least there is no "agony effect" of spending 1 hour stuck in a hopeless match. |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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Mar 16, 2023 - 19:42 |
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It could have an adverse effect on people's mental health to discover that yes, Nuffle really does hate them. They really are "unlucky". Everything of any value that they attempt is destined to fail.
It is much better to let them think that it will all even itself out in the end.
Assuming that they are fortunate enough to live that long.  |
_________________
O[L]C 2016 Swiss! - April ---- All Star Bowl - Teams of Stars - 2 more teams needed |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Mar 16, 2023 - 20:27 |
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yeah ideally i want to make an expected number of turns played (where a stun counts as 0, not 1) and an expected number of touchdowns per turns played. ideally we'd just take every game from crp and later (what.. 2010? ish?) and just do an estimate per team
in principle, you'd then want to try to calculate the effect that the most important skills have on this (block, dodge, mighty blow, guard, agility, movement) but trying to do so has resulted in too many controversial decisions, so I haven't got something useable. |
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