Lithuran
Joined: Jun 01, 2007
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Feb 21, 2009 - 00:33 |
 
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In light of BWR being made public - http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=blackbox
This post was made.
I shall start with the quick answer then rant on with the explination.
How to Increase BWR?
The answer is - Have the lowest TR you can for your TS. Give your opponents handicaps.
(Incidently this means 0 RR teams suck at gaining BWR)
As many of you know my only blackbox team has over 1M cash meaning i get 5 handicaps every game like it or not. I've also won 65% of my games, you would think this would mean my BWR would be up? NO. BWR - 147.18
This mean 1 of 2 things, 1) The TR difference is used in calculating the BWR increase/decrease of a match.
2) Handicaps are not accounted for in the calculation of BWR.
How do I reach this conclusion, well for my BWR to be low and win most of my games then, when I win 2 of 3 gaims I gain less BWR then when I lose 1/3 games. The differences between out teams ate TR (Obviously because of my cash). And -10 to -35 TS because of my handicaps. If the formula included handicaps the TS match would be -15 to +15 TS, And TS would not be a factor in calculation of BWR.
What this means is to gain BWR you need the total oppsite of my team. I.E. The highest TS for the lowest TR. You need to give your opponent handicaps.
Then even a 50% win rate will give you BWR. -on average I'm ignoring the relative coach BWR here.
This means having 0RR, (-TS with no TR change) is exactly what you don't want.
On a more speculative note, higher TS teams should have higher BWR coaches, and wins should be worth more there.
(also pointing out that 0RR teams suck)
Fell free to question any part of this, it is only after all a theory. Looks like ill be needing another team though. |
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funnyfingers
Joined: Nov 13, 2005
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Feb 21, 2009 - 00:58 |
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You are matched based on TS after handicaps and the CR formula include TS after handis so I would think BWR is as well. I think this post is poppy cock. |
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SillySod
Joined: Oct 10, 2006
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Feb 21, 2009 - 01:05 |
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I'm guessing that the four game rule has had a significant impact on your BWR. Since your hobgoblins have played against relatively low TS opponents you wont have played many actual scoring games.... and most of the scoring games will have been the hardest you played so they are much more likely to be the games you lost.
The key isnt to optimise TS vs TR. The key is to optimise your TS vs the actual strength of your team. That might mean reducing the handicaps you suffer (although personally I think they are good to have) or it might mean not taking the +St or whatever... but thats they key (along with simply playing well). It usually pretty helpful to find a TR where you team excels and stick to that, I found that vampires hit the spot at TS150ish if they keep hiring wizards  |
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Putting the "eh?" back into Sexeh.
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funnyfingers
Joined: Nov 13, 2005
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Feb 21, 2009 - 01:14 |
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Bottom line you have to win against the stronger opponents to increase it and not lose to the weaker to keep it from decreasing. I assume weaker means TS with handicaps and BWR like the CR forumula:
http://fumbbl.com/help:Ranking |
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Lithuran
Joined: Jun 01, 2007
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Feb 21, 2009 - 01:36 |
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| SillySod wrote: | I'm guessing that the four game rule has had a significant impact on your BWR. Since your hobgoblins have played against relatively low TS opponents you wont have played many actual scoring games.... and most of the scoring games will have been the hardest you played so they are much more likely to be the games you lost.
The key isnt to optimise TS vs TR. The key is to optimise your TS vs the actual strength of your team. That might mean reducing the handicaps you suffer (although personally I think they are good to have) or it might mean not taking the +St or whatever... but thats they key (along with simply playing well). It usually pretty helpful to find a TR where you team excels and stick to that, I found that vampires hit the spot at TS150ish if they keep hiring wizards |
I have only played 11 games that counted. 5 wins 5 losses and a draw.
I think my orignal point still stands. |
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westerner
Joined: Jul 02, 2008
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Feb 22, 2009 - 00:50 |
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I think it very unlikely that the ranking formula utilitizes TR. It says in the documentation that it uses TS.
It's possible that the BWR ranking calculation ignores handicaps when calculating TS-weighting, however. In which case keeping lots of cash and giving away handicaps would be a bad strategy if you wanted to maximize your BWR.
I don't think 0RR is relevant to this discussion though, as that's more a question of optimizing win% for a given TS. |
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ultwe
Joined: Dec 25, 2004
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Feb 22, 2009 - 01:02 |
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A quick look at the top 10 tells me that 8 out 10 coaches have CR of 170+, the last 2 have 169.* and 167.* respectively.
My personal conclusion is therefore that to increase your BWR, you need to be moderately good at the game, above any maximisation of the TS, TR and whatever else |
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Yeah, Nuffle sucks... That's because I play crap
π is aproximately 3.142 times better than any other food |
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westerner
Joined: Jul 02, 2008
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Feb 23, 2009 - 19:29 |
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Additional evidence that the ranking formula may be ignoring handicaps:
Treborius posted that his BWR was very low, yet his TD differential is almost even. |
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SillySod
Joined: Oct 10, 2006
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Feb 23, 2009 - 19:44 |
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| Lithuran wrote: | | SillySod wrote: | I'm guessing that the four game rule has had a significant impact on your BWR. Since your hobgoblins have played against relatively low TS opponents you wont have played many actual scoring games.... and most of the scoring games will have been the hardest you played so they are much more likely to be the games you lost.
The key isnt to optimise TS vs TR. The key is to optimise your TS vs the actual strength of your team. That might mean reducing the handicaps you suffer (although personally I think they are good to have) or it might mean not taking the +St or whatever... but thats they key (along with simply playing well). It usually pretty helpful to find a TR where you team excels and stick to that, I found that vampires hit the spot at TS150ish if they keep hiring wizards |
I have only played 11 games that counted. 5 wins 5 losses and a draw.
I think my orignal point still stands. |
Actually, I think it does explain your BWR. If you have won roughly as much as you lost (in terms of games that count) then you would expect your BWR to be roughly 150ish. Yours is 147... not too far off of 150, thats a relatively standard outcome for your set of results. |
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Putting the "eh?" back into Sexeh.
"There are those to whom knowledge is a shield. There are those to whom it is a weapon. Neither view is balanced." |
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odi
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Feb 23, 2009 - 19:52 |
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Maybe it just means that the BWR formula doesnt really help coaches who try to maximize the amount of easy games for themselves (in this case, having as much cash as possible, since we know the handies arent worth 5TS). It's teams like that which kinda ruin B for the rest of us, since that drives away a lot of coaches from B 
And since the 5 first games dont count, your team record is 19/5/15. |
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westerner
Joined: Jul 02, 2008
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Feb 23, 2009 - 20:09 |
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SillySod, I think Lithuran has a point.
Only one of Lithuran's past or present [B] teams is over the threshold of 4 games required for it to count in the ranking. It's Hob Horde, which has a 24/5/15 record atm. It doesn't make sense that Lithuran's BWR would be 147 based on that record. The team's TR/TS is 310/167 so he is giving up a ton of handicaps.
Basically I am thinking that dT = Normalized difference in team strength in the ranking formula isn't taking handicaps into account. |
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westerner
Joined: Jul 02, 2008
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Feb 23, 2009 - 20:22 |
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| odi wrote: | | since we know the handies arent worth 5TS |
Odi, I wouldn't call this a fact. A majority of coaches polled felt they were worth 5TS or more. You might have a point for teams at the lower end of the TS spectrum. |
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SillySod
Joined: Oct 10, 2006
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Feb 23, 2009 - 23:36 |
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| westerner wrote: | | Only one of Lithuran's past or present [b} teams is over the threshold of 4 games required for it to count in the ranking. It's Hob Horde, which has a 24/5/15 record atm. It doesn't make sense that Lithuran's BWR would be 147 based on that record. |
Remember that the 4 game rule applies to both teams. That particular team has spent a large amount of time at a relatively low TS - hence he hasnt played very many games that have affected BWR. Actually according to him his BWR-counting record is 5/1/5 |
_________________
Putting the "eh?" back into Sexeh.
"There are those to whom knowledge is a shield. There are those to whom it is a weapon. Neither view is balanced." |
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westerner
Joined: Jul 02, 2008
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Feb 23, 2009 - 23:50 |
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Ok, assuming the 5/1/5 figures are accurate, I still think a drop from 150 to 147 BWR over just 11 games is quite surprising.
Treborius example is even more stark. Sub 140CR with a TD differential that is virtually even. |
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SillySod
Joined: Oct 10, 2006
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Feb 23, 2009 - 23:57 |
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3 ranking points is not alot I'm not sure about Treborius results because I havent looked at them.... however, TD differential is not the same as "scoring games won vs scoring games lost". |
_________________
Putting the "eh?" back into Sexeh.
"There are those to whom knowledge is a shield. There are those to whom it is a weapon. Neither view is balanced." |
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