Tarabaralla
Joined: Jul 24, 2010
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 Posted:
Apr 07, 2012 - 16:57 |
 
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| Emeric wrote: | Ok now that looks cool, many coaches will play halflings in box soon 
So...
My predictions:
.... |
Added to the main post 
Shame on anyone not doing his own predictions! |
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Enigma179
Joined: Sep 19, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 09, 2012 - 15:31 |
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The Very Rich Rats are OUT after just one round. It's something to do with underworld, got outbashed by the little buggers, same as at the Fumbbl Cup. Ahh well, next time we'll get 'em. Bonus points to them for now having caused the most casualties to my team in one game!
By the way, a bit of a bounty to put on someone's head; half of the profits from my betting stand goes to whoever kills this joker. Waltzing around the pitch without his S access and with his clawpomb anyway, with his av6 taunting my every move... he shouldn't be too hard a nut to crack guys, so anyone in the Slaneesh favoured quali, get 'im out for good! |
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. And like that, *poof*... he's gone |
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propuppetmaster
Joined: Feb 27, 2007
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Apr 09, 2012 - 23:55 |
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Well, there is a great 2nd round match up in the khorne Qualies that I hope I get to spec...
Malmir and Hitongashi are up vs each other!
I am going to go with the lizards here in a grueling 2-1 technical showdown |
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Tarabaralla
Joined: Jul 24, 2010
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Apr 10, 2012 - 15:58 |
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Principi will bite the pitch at 18.00 bbtime today! There are already rumours about a huge wager their coach made, throwing all his savings in for an orcish win... |
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Enigma179
Joined: Sep 19, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 10, 2012 - 16:17 |
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| Tarabaralla wrote: | | Principi will bite the pitch at 18.00 bbtime today! There are already rumours about a huge wager their coach made, throwing all his savings in for an orcish win... |
Hey, can't do that, conflict of interest. Revoking your winnings automatically now. Have a nice day. |
_________________
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. And like that, *poof*... he's gone |
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Tarabaralla
Joined: Jul 24, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 10, 2012 - 16:58 |
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| Enigma179 wrote: | | Tarabaralla wrote: | | Principi will bite the pitch at 18.00 bbtime today! There are already rumours about a huge wager their coach made, throwing all his savings in for an orcish win... |
Hey, can't do that, conflict of interest. Revoking your winnings automatically now. Have a nice day. |
Busted!
By the way, what is the algorithm you did use to calculate the odds for the bets? I wanna add Principi's bet ratio as one of their records  |
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Enigma179
Joined: Sep 19, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 10, 2012 - 17:18 |
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| Tarabaralla wrote: | | Enigma179 wrote: | | Tarabaralla wrote: | | Principi will bite the pitch at 18.00 bbtime today! There are already rumours about a huge wager their coach made, throwing all his savings in for an orcish win... |
Hey, can't do that, conflict of interest. Revoking your winnings automatically now. Have a nice day. |
Busted!
By the way, what is the algorithm you did use to calculate the odds for the bets? I wanna add Principi's bet ratio as one of their records |
Hehe. I actually have changed it a little bit, but you still should have similar odds to before with this one;
First, both teams start off with 50% chances. I have a copy of NAF's race table, which I can't find for some reason, but it essentially lists races and how good they are against each other, using the same 150 scale for CR. For every point above or below 150, a team gains or loses 0.5% chances, affecting the other appropriately (the way the chart is, works both ways).
Then, CR is taken into account (maybe not so reliable, but it gives you an idea of general skill, and current streaks with all teams); I find the difference between each coach's CR, and divide it by 2.5 for the percentage that it affects (again, adding to one side and subtracting from the other)
Finally, win percentages are put in too; I give one point for a win on the team's record, 0.5 for a tie, and 0 for a loss, sum it up, divide it by the total games, and from there I get a percentage wins. Find the difference between the two percentages, divide it all by 2.5, and again, put it into each percentage.
I then have two percentages that add up to a 100, and those are the ones I use to get betting odds (just a ratio of one to the other). HOWEVER, sometimes there's such an underdog that the percentage goes into negatives (hasn't happened yet though). If this happens, I take the amount that it is under 0 by, find the reciprocal (1/whatever), and that's their new percentage (less than 1%).
It's all automated in a spreadsheet of course, only thing that isn't automated is the race modifiers.
EDIT: Oh right yeah, and TV plays a part too; any TV over 2000 becomes bloaty and of less usefulness, so I halve all TV that goes above 2000 by 50% (so big teams will need a larger difference for a larger effect). I find the difference, divide by 0.4, add the percentage, and that's all. That's my real problem actually, I think I may have weighted TV a tad too heavily in the algorithm, have to change it up for the next major. |
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. And like that, *poof*... he's gone |
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Niebling
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Apr 11, 2012 - 14:08 |
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I aprove of the nerd level in the above post! |
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Someone is wrong on the Internet and it is my sworn duty to correct them. |
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Malmir
Joined: May 20, 2008
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| Posted:
Apr 11, 2012 - 16:24 |
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This game is set for Friday at 21:30 bbtime and I agree with your view that lizards are favourites. Would have been nice to get a few more skills before the tourney started, but we'll have a go.
| propuppetmaster wrote: | Well, there is a great 2nd round match up in the khorne Qualies that I hope I get to spec...
Malmir and Hitongashi are up vs each other!
I am going to go with the lizards here in a grueling 2-1 technical showdown |
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Sigmar1
Joined: Aug 13, 2008
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Apr 11, 2012 - 20:14 |
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My vampires are out in the first round of another box major. Although used to getting crappy vampire dice and/ or getting clawpombed to oblivion, this match actually saw me get one-turned out by a 6spp skink when the match looked to be heading to OT where I think I might've had a slight advantage. |
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Badges? We don't need no stinkin' badges! |
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Azure
Joined: Jan 30, 2007
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Apr 17, 2012 - 19:38 |
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Update (since I was curious):
Khorne Qualifiers
Favoured Of Khorne: Four Spring Dwarf technique (S,A,E)
Champion Of Khorne:Stinky Evil (H,S), Tarot Arcana (T)
Tzeentch Qualifiers
Favoured Of Tzeentch:Wacky Racers Return!(H,A), Rutuscus (T), In Dark Places (E)
Champion Of Tzeentch:Armored Deficiencies (T,A)
Nurgle Qualifiers
Favoured Of Nurgle:Speyside [B]rewers (H,T)
Champion Of Nurgle:Pro Popes (H,A), Burn Notice (T,E)
Slaanesh Qualifiers
Favoured Of Slaanesh:{B} Jigers Death Squad (S,E)
Champion Of Slaanesh:Principi (H,A,E)
Hitonagashi's prediction - 5 Remain
Tarabaralla's prediction - 5 Remain
SvenS' prediction - 3 Remain
Azure's prediction - 5 Remain
Emeric's prediction - 5 Remain |
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SvenS
Joined: Jul 07, 2007
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| Posted:
Apr 17, 2012 - 19:48 |
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Ouch Im in trouble! |
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IL-S
SL |
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Tarabaralla
Joined: Jul 24, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 19, 2012 - 15:56 |
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So there's still no one winning but we already know who's losing |
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Enigma179
Joined: Sep 19, 2010
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Apr 19, 2012 - 16:36 |
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Alright, it's been a while, but here's a quick peek at my predictions for the current batch of Champion matches!
Champion of Khorne Finals
Stinky Evil, Nurgle, 2290k vs. Tarot Arcana, High Elves, 1840k
1.44 to 1 against Tarot Arcana
Champion of Tzeentch Finals
Planet Pain Decaying, Nurgle, 2040k vs. Armored Deficiencies, Dwarf, 2130k
1.52 to 1 against Planet Pain Decaying
Champion of Nurgle Semi-Finals
Pro Popes, Elf, 2080k vs. Bat Villains Return, Nurgle, 1940k
1.86 to 1 against Bat Villains Return
Armoured Amazons, Amazons vs. Burn Notice, Skaven
PREDICTION CANCELLED DUE TO SKILLS PENDING
Champion of Slaneesh Semi-Finals
Beverly Blacksons, Chaos vs. Sagome di Cartone, Chaos
PREDICTION CANCELLED DUE TO SKILLS PENDING
Battlefrogs, Slann, 1710k vs. Principi, Vampire, 2450k
1.93 to 1 against Battlefrogs
And now we wait... |
_________________
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. And like that, *poof*... he's gone |
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PeteW
Joined: Aug 05, 2005
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| Posted:
Apr 19, 2012 - 16:36 |
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Hmmm. There's an unplayed game in the Tzeentch Favoured. I guess the site maintenance caused a deadline extension? |
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"Jesus loves me this I know, 'cos my Bible tells me so." MrMojo - where did you go? |
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