FUMBBL :: Online Blood Bowl League

mrt1212

Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 04:19

Which is better and why?

Assume Beastman with Block and ST4. Marking ST3 AG3 player.

Last edited by mrt1212 on %b %07, %2016 - %04:%Sep; edited 1 time in total

MattDakka

Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 04:23

You should specify the escaping player's ST.

mrt1212

Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 04:23

ST3 player.

We will entertain other scenarios as we go along and solve the current question.

mrt1212

Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 04:33

Bonus points to whoever can write out the functions for each scenario where we can adjust the variables of Beastman ST, Marked Player ST, Marked Player AG and Dodge being present.

MattDakka

Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 04:40

Dodging away from Prehensile Tail with AG 3 has a 50% success chance (4+);
Escaping from ST 4 Tentacles with ST 3 has a 58.33% success chance (7+ required on 2d6, 21/36), but after breaking free there is a 3+ Dodge that lowers the success chance to 38.88%.

Last edited by MattDakka on %b %07, %2016 - %04:%Sep; edited 1 time in total

Rbthma

Joined: Jan 14, 2009

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 04:40

In that case, prehensile tail is better at stopping the dodge - they would fail 50% whereas tentacles is 58.3% chance of succeeding(7+). Difference is that failure to make the dodge vs. PT, you can get injured but not blocked next turn. Tentacles changes what you might try to do with the player though. You might not blitz with him/her but try to dodge earlier in the turn to assist, etc.

Rbthma

Joined: Jan 14, 2009

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 04:41

ah, right. forgot the dodge afterwards

Uedder

Joined: Aug 03, 2010

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 05:04

To me tentacles is best. You can have both tho.

Why tentacles is best?

1) Works on leap

2) Gives extra block when succeeded

3) Works against any agility

4) Psychological factor

The fourth point is maybe personal. But Tentacles is different from most dynamics in blood bowl. It has 2 dice rolled, which is rare. If failed doesn't cause a turnover, which is rare, too.

This means the reasoning you put your opponent into is different and more challenging. While PT is more straight forward. Leave the dodge at the end of the turn, try the dodge, fail/success. That kind of decision is made every game several times by each BB coach. If it's worth to reroll a 7+ with your star to avoid a block in the next turn or for positional advantage... that's not so common and may force mistakes.

mrt1212

Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 05:08

MattDakka wrote:

Dodging away from Prehensile Tail with AG 3 has a 50% success chance (4+);
Escaping from ST 4 Tentacles with ST 3 has a 58.33% success chance (7+ required on 2d6, 21/36), but after breaking free there is a 3+ Dodge that lowers the success chance to 38.88%.

The Slann Council thanks you for this message.

ahalfling

Joined: Aug 16, 2008

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 05:19

They do somewhat different things, no? Tentacles are more likely to prevent the opponent from dodging out, the tail is more likely to cause the opponent to suffer a TO/fall while trying.

So we start with this dodge, which (assuming a simple dodge into no tackle zones) is 66.7%, or 88.9% with a reroll. The tail cuts it to 50%/75%.

As for tentacles, it depends on whether the player is willing to reroll a failed escape. In the scenario listed above, you need a 7+ (21/36, or 58.3%) to escape, followed by the regular dodge roll.

So if the player has (or is willing to use) no rerolls, we have a 41.7% likelihood of the player being stuck, 38.9% of a successful escape, and 19.4% of a fall.

If the player will reroll the dodge but not the tentacle escape, those numbers switch to 41.7% held, 51.9% escaped, 6.5% down.

If the player is willing to reroll either roll, the chance of being stuck drops to 17.4%. On the 24.3% of occasions where the player escapes the tentacles but has to burn a reroll to do so, 16.2% will result in a successful dodge and 8.1% in a fall. The remaining 58.3% (an escape on the first try) is 51.9%/6.5%, the same as the above. So the end result here is 17.4% held, 68.0% escaped, 14.6% fall/TO.

To sum up:

Of course, this involves a LOT of assumptions: the beastman is +1 ST as compared to the dodger, the dodger has exactly 3 AG and no dodge (or pro) skill, etc. But this is basically the way it is. It also doesn't take into account the possibility of leap, the fact that tail stacks and tentacles don't, etc.

I'd also question whether either is a move worth considering here... if I have a +ST beastman with block, I don't think "make him slightly better at preventing dodges" comes into play when I'm considering a third skill. (I might consider tackle, which does have that effect among others.) My suspicion is that tentacles make more sense with a guy whose ST is 5+ (harder to budge, harder to escape from, and can potentially hold multiple opponents) than on a ST4 guy. I'm not sure the tail holds a lot of appeal for me here, except maybe as a late skill on a guy who already has tentacles (or diving tackle).

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mrt1212

Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 05:22

Uedder wrote:

To me tentacles is best. You can have both tho.

Why tentacles is best?

1) Works on leap

2) Gives extra block when succeeded

3) Works against any agility

4) Psychological factor

The fourth point is maybe personal. But Tentacles is different from most dynamics in blood bowl. It has 2 dice rolled, which is rare. If failed doesn't cause a turnover, which is rare, too.

This means the reasoning you put your opponent into is different and more challenging. While PT is more straight forward. Leave the dodge at the end of the turn, try the dodge, fail/success. That kind of decision is made every game several times by each BB coach. If it's worth to reroll a 7+ with your star to avoid a block in the next turn or for positional advantage... that's not so common and may force mistakes.

Psychological Strategery!

mrt1212

Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Posted: Sep 07, 2016 - 05:58

ahalfling, I owe you 100 Box Bucks for this.

The question may be reality at some point down the road for my Chaos, I'm think tents would be the skill at 51 or 76 spp if they live that long. Guard SF Tents. I have 2 ST4 Block Beastmen although one is AG1 so the likelihood he ever gets there is stupidly slim.

sheepycollins

Joined: Sep 21, 2015

Posted: Sep 08, 2016 - 20:56

Tents is great, but one great thing about PT is IT STACKS!

2 beastmen with PT, and even a vampire is thinking twice, vs str 4 ag4 would almost laugh at tents, and god forbid you get a DT PT Str 5 tents beastman :p no ball carier is safe!

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