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finsterface



Joined: Apr 29, 2012

Post   Posted: Jul 02, 2017 - 18:18 Reply with quote Back to top

Hi there,

I've played a match today, where I got surprised by a matchup I was expecting to be less favorable than other possible matchups according to my knowledge of the scheduler. So I'd like to understand the inner workings of the scheduler a bit better.

The match I played was...

a) My TV 1260k Khemri Tomb Kings (7) vs. TV 1400k Chaos Dwarf (11) @812

...the data can be found here.

At the same time, I had also activated my...

b) TV 1350 Orc (19 games) and my...
c) TV 1490 Nurgle (25 games)
d) other teams, which have an even larger TV-gap to the Chorfs

...so (some) of the possible matchups were:

a) Chorf vs. Khemri; TV-diff: 140 @812
b) Chorf vs. Orc; TV-diff: 50 @???
c) Chorf vs. Nurgle; TV-diff: -90 @???

...now, I know that racial-win-% plays a role in calculating the suitability-scores (which are unknown for b & c).

...looking at the Chorf vs. other races at TV=130..150 (TV of the Chorfs) in the BlackBox-division yields...

Code:

Home            Away    Played  Wins    Draws   Defeats   Win-%
Chaos Dwarf     Nurgle  624     257     154     213       53.53
Chaos Dwarf     Khemri  362     150     84      128       53.04
Chaos Dwarf     Orc     790     310     184     296       50.89


...now it seems to me, that the Chorf vs. Orc - matchup should've been much more suitable, because...

c) The win-% of Chorf vs. Orc is closer to 50% (still in favor of the Chorfs) and there's only a slight TV-advantage for the Chorfs.

a) The win-% of Chorf vs. Khemri is quite a bit better for the Chorfs and there's an additional TV-advantage for the Chorfs, which is quite a bit larger (~10%) than for the match-up c), as well.

Can anyone help at finding out, what I'm missing? Wink

Edited: For readability and correction of numbers...
Kryten



Joined: Sep 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Jul 02, 2017 - 21:46
FUMBBL Staff
Reply with quote Back to top

This is why:
Quote:
8. Calculate rookie protection factor:
r_games = ( Min(games_1, games_2) + 1 ) / 15, if either team has less than 15 games and the opponent 15 or more
r_games = 1, otherwise


Both your Khemri and his Chaos Dwarves were under rookie protection. There was a significant discount to the suitability versus any of the older teams in the draw.
finsterface



Joined: Apr 29, 2012

Post   Posted: Jul 02, 2017 - 22:28 Reply with quote Back to top

Kryten wrote:
This is why:
Quote:
8. Calculate rookie protection factor:
r_games = ( Min(games_1, games_2) + 1 ) / 15, if either team has less than 15 games and the opponent 15 or more
r_games = 1, otherwise


Both your Khemri and his Chaos Dwarves were under rookie protection. There was a significant discount to the suitability versus any of the older teams in the draw.


Ahh, ok, I guess I did take that factor (=1.0) into account for the match-up that was produced, but didn't consider it actually applies to my other 2 teams (<1.0). So when applying this to the Chorf vs. Orc - matchup (closest in TV), it would yield a factor: r_games = (Min(11,19)+1) / 15 = 12 / 15 = 0.8

So I guess, that means, the suitability for the Chorf vs. Orc - matchup would've have to be equal or better than the suitability of the actual matching (812) divided by 0.8 = 1015. Meaning they matched worse according to the scheduler (since perfect suitability without that factor could be 1000, max). I think I got it Cool

Well, guess it's time to make some fresh teams, then Razz

Thx alot, this cleared things up!
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