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Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 08, 2018 - 12:01 Reply with quote Back to top

So, name a few coaches who you believe foul effectively and foul often. I like Carlo with the Angry Newscasters.

Who else?
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Feb 08, 2018 - 16:01 Reply with quote Back to top

tmoila, with low TV wood elves in a recent big tournament, fumbbl cup last year I think
He took merc dirty players and just loller diced his way thru several rounds

https://fumbbl.com/p/team?team_id=887770
ArrestedDevelopment



Joined: Sep 14, 2015

Post   Posted: Feb 08, 2018 - 16:49 Reply with quote Back to top

Fouling has always been a part of Tmoila strategy Very Happy

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garyt1



Joined: Mar 12, 2011

Post   Posted: Feb 09, 2018 - 20:04 Reply with quote Back to top

Foad has the right answer on numbers regarding auto armour break. Spookeh and Keothi you don't just add all the armour and injury send off probabilities like that. Not sent off on first roll reduces chances of not being sent off overall. That is why it is just over 30% chance when a roll of 2+ breaks armour. Then also take away the argue the call chance which takes it nearer to 25% until the coach is sent off.

Drawing a probability tree can help understand it. So using branches on a tree it is (prob of sent off on first roll) + (prob of sent off on just injury, not armour):
(6/36) + (5/6 x 1/6) = (6/36) + (5/36) = 11/36

Including argue the call you can subtract from the previous total:
11/36 - (11/36 * 6/36) = 11/36 - 66/1296 = 0.255

This video is useful when you are trying this sort of thing.
http://www.statisticshowto.com/how-to-use-a-probability-tree-for-probability-questions/

Although I find fouls risky I have been burned by leaving players exposed more than I would like!

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A wise man can learn more from a foolish question than a fool can learn from a wise answer.
Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 10, 2018 - 04:38 Reply with quote Back to top

Speaking of Carlo, I drew him last night in the box. This game was the result.

Watch the second half and see the pain he inflicted.

https://www.fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&id=3964442
Catalyst32



Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 10, 2018 - 05:21 Reply with quote Back to top

Dalfort wrote:
One of my early lessons on this site was fouling to save my players from being mauled...



Yep. Want to save your Legend from a certain death in a game that is about to be 11 on 3.

1 YELL HEY REF!!! WATCH THIS!!!
2 Use Legend to FOUL
3 INSULT REF IN THE MOST HEINOUS WAY POSSIBLE
4 Get tossed out. Survive on the bench.
lawofthewest



Joined: Nov 09, 2017

Post   Posted: Feb 10, 2018 - 07:41 Reply with quote Back to top

Catalyst32 wrote:



I foul when that foul could seriously turn the tide of the game.
Maybe I have an 11-9 or 11-8 man advantage and losing 1 of mine won't be so bad... but getting 1 more of his off would almost guarantee a win for my team.
Maybe I am down 8-11 or 9-11 and I believe if I don't even things up a bit I am headed for a sure Loss.
Maybe he best player is down and I have a decent chance to lay the boot with a gang foul that will seriously hurt his team.
That is when you foul. Those situations (and others for certain) are when you lay the boot.
this basically means you foul every match in every situation
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Feb 10, 2018 - 09:36 Reply with quote Back to top

Kondor wrote:
Speaking of Carlo, I drew him last night in the box. This game was the result.
Watch the second half and see the pain he inflicted.
https://www.fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&id=3964442

lol at him prioritising the fouls over everything else, inc t16 where he needed to equalise
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Feb 10, 2018 - 09:59 Reply with quote Back to top

garyt1 wrote:
Foad has the right answer on numbers regarding auto armour break. Spookeh and Keothi you don't just add all the armour and injury send off probabilities like that. Not sent off on first roll reduces chances of not being sent off overall. That is why it is just over 30% chance when a roll of 2+ breaks armour.


hmmmmm... yea you're right
the difference, is it just because you eliminate double-counting?
sent off on both rolls isn't 2 send-off events, its just sent off once

so for AV2, no dirty player
Sent off on armor roll = 1/6 = 16.66%
not sent off on armor roll & break armor & then sent off on injury roll = 5/6 * 36/36 * 1/6 = 13.88%

total is then added... 30.55% ?
that's 1/36th less than what i had originally, because we've removed the doublecounting?

i'll update my other post
DustBunny



Joined: Oct 14, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 10, 2018 - 12:12 Reply with quote Back to top

Whenever a player is prone.

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Catalyst32



Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Post   Posted: Feb 12, 2018 - 04:34 Reply with quote Back to top

lawofthewest wrote:
Catalyst32 wrote:



I foul when that foul could seriously turn the tide of the game.
Maybe I have an 11-9 or 11-8 man advantage and losing 1 of mine won't be so bad... but getting 1 more of his off would almost guarantee a win for my team.
Maybe I am down 8-11 or 9-11 and I believe if I don't even things up a bit I am headed for a sure Loss.
Maybe he best player is down and I have a decent chance to lay the boot with a gang foul that will seriously hurt his team.
That is when you foul. Those situations (and others for certain) are when you lay the boot.
this basically means you foul every match in every situation


NO it doesn't. NOT EVEN CLOSE. I fouls less than 1 time per game. Those situations DO NOT arise in every game.

My opponents best player is not put on the ground every game in a position where he can be fouled. Some opponents know how to protect their best player from the foul.

I do not always get down 8-11 or 9-11 in games. And I don't often panic when this happens. I often have confidence that I am going to be able to hold despite those losses or that I can turn it around. And most of the time I am right.
I only go to the foul when my confidence in maintain a relatively even footing WITHOUT fouling is evaporating. When I think... if I don't foul and succeed with this foul this game is lost.

As for when the foul could seriously turn the tide of the game. I mean... maybe I just sent 2 opposing players out on this turn and can land a solid FOUL to make that turn a huge impact... rather than just a large impact.
Or maybe I start a turn with an 11-8 player advantage... I might start that turn looking to set up a juicy foul.

I am NOT going to risk sending my own guy OFF for fouling as you say... in every match or every situation. You read me wrong or maybe you read the game situations poorly/
garyt1



Joined: Mar 12, 2011

Post   Posted: Feb 13, 2018 - 23:24 Reply with quote Back to top

Sp00keh wrote:
garyt1 wrote:
Foad has the right answer on numbers regarding auto armour break. Spookeh and Keothi you don't just add all the armour and injury send off probabilities like that. Not sent off on first roll reduces chances of not being sent off overall. That is why it is just over 30% chance when a roll of 2+ breaks armour.

the difference, is it just because you eliminate double-counting?
sent off on both rolls isn't 2 send-off events, its just sent off once

so for AV2, no dirty player
Sent off on armor roll = 1/6 = 16.66%
not sent off on armor roll & break armor & then sent off on injury roll = 5/6 * 36/36 * 1/6 = 13.88%

total is then added... 30.55% ?
that's 1/36th less than what i had originally, because we've removed the doublecounting?..

Yeah that 30.55 is right. You were almost right before, but that double counting changes it a bit.

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A wise man can learn more from a foolish question than a fool can learn from a wise answer.
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