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Poll
What to do with the Slann Blitzer?
No changes needed, the skill access makes up for the price.
29%
 29%  [ 44 ]
Discount Blitzer Please.
26%
 26%  [ 39 ]
Exchange diving tackle or jump up for block.
11%
 11%  [ 17 ]
Stop Complaining.
32%
 32%  [ 49 ]
Total Votes : 149


mister__joshua



Joined: Jun 20, 2007

Post   Posted: Sep 18, 2018 - 14:30
FUMBBL Staff
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NickNutria wrote:
Harad, you got 27 times a better result for 1 worse result. I think 27:1 is ok, in my opinion. 1/72 means you've got less than 1 fail per match (a match has somethig between 30 and 60 blocks). A risk I would take any time.


That would always depend on how much you'd gain from a success vs how devastating a fail would be though. Skulls often lose games, especially skull on unnecessary blocks.

_________________
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man." - The Dude

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Harad



Joined: May 11, 2014

Post   Posted: Sep 18, 2018 - 14:37 Reply with quote Back to top

Yes but the key point is how much better and how much worse. Obviously this is a theoretical argument but I postulate that many times the failure is more than 27 times worse than the additional utility in the success. Remember we are, by definition, rerolling things that aren't that important.

Obviously one can construct a case where each reroll is just below the threshold for using a team reroll where taking pro and using it has a net positive but my experience of watching most coaches who use pro to reroll any 'non success' is that most of the time they are at the other end of the spectrum where the positive gain is very small and when it goes wrong it's a disaster.
Harad



Joined: May 11, 2014

Post   Posted: Sep 18, 2018 - 14:39 Reply with quote Back to top

MJ beat me to it.
Weresquid



Joined: Mar 25, 2016

Post   Posted: Sep 18, 2018 - 18:39 Reply with quote Back to top

Harad wrote:
I generally find good discipline a better way of not wasting rerolls on pushes Smile
But I agree there is an interesting point here. I have long argued with others that some skills that are supposedly great (e.g. frenzy) are not so good for weaker coaches. Perhaps you make a valid point that pro has increasing utility for weaker coaches as a) it helps them not to use rerolls on less important things and b) a point someone else made, they roll more dice/run out of rerolls etc. so pro will be more valuable for them.
I'd still suggest that they go for dodge first but in relative terms I think there is merit in the argument.

Heh, i was obviously half joking, but that was the point.

On a more serious note, pro can be great on blitzer types if used responsibly, and I dont think the odds of success vs. failure is the right way to analyze this. It obviously increases the chance of a knockdown, but if you cant afford the turnover you dont reroll that push anyway. A team reroll on a block would lead to a turnover twice as often as a pro roll would. If you just want to maximize knockdowns and injuries over time pro can be pretty neat.
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