HollowOne
Joined: Sep 23, 2004
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 Posted:
Nov 23, 2004 - 23:45 |
 
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Okay, so I was bored at work and I did a little maths to calculate probabilities involving the Hail Mary Pass & Diving Catch combo. The following table summarizes the probability (X out of 512) of the ball scattering to a given square (the center square is highlighted in bold):
So in other words, the probability of the ball landing splat bang in the centre (i.e. on target) is 24/512 < 5%.
The probability of the ball landing within one square of the centre (i.e. within range of someone with Diving Catch) is (8 * 27 + 24)/512 which is just a whisker under 47%.
Of course, my calculations could be wrong, but I suspect they are correct, as the numbers all add up to 512, which is 8 to the power of 3, the number of scatter combinations.
So here comes the question part: How balanced does this strike you as being? |
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Xeterog
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 24, 2004 - 02:28 |
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It probably needs some help, as very few people take this combo...if it was broken, you'd see it on every team..if it was fairly balanced, you'd see it more often..right now, it just isn't generally worth it. |
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- Xeterog |
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hunter
Joined: Aug 11, 2003
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Nov 24, 2004 - 02:30 |
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I have it on my snotling team... works great sometimes, but almost always at least gets the ball downfield and close to 1 or 2 of my guys.
~hunter |
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tza
Joined: Aug 25, 2004
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Nov 24, 2004 - 03:18 |
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I think reason why you don't see it much, is that its either a panic solution to get rid of the ball, or its a play you can use seldom. Its easier to just get accurate/safethrow/strongarm on a thrower and punch a hole in the line than sending a lone catcher down for the ball. Less risky.
But I do feel that its working great as is. |
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Britnoth
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 24, 2004 - 03:21 |
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Having a skill callled 'hail mary' could be an inclination of what situation it might be useful in.  |
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annachie
Joined: Jul 27, 2004
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Nov 24, 2004 - 03:23 |
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So thats a 47% chance of the ball ending up where a player with diving catch can catch it. Assuming it is not fumbled in the first place. Which works out to roughly a 39% chanceof being catchable.
Then of course, it has to be caught. Assume ag3, and a reroll, 75% chance of catching it. So 30% chance of working overall.
That's not too bad I suppose. |
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Xeterog
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 24, 2004 - 04:02 |
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might be a little bit higher..as you can use DC to move one square towards the ball..even if it doesn't put you in the ball's square...then the ball could bounce to the square you DC'd to..allowing you to attempt to catch it  |
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- Xeterog |
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AbsoluteZero
Joined: May 12, 2004
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Nov 24, 2004 - 04:14 |
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Gortex's suggestion would overpower diving catch. Well my respected colleagues I believe the fundamental error that ALL of you all are making is that there is only one diving catcher. Try 2? and rework the catch possibilities? believe me, it more than doubles. |
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Michael_Warblade
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 24, 2004 - 04:45 |
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ah but only 1 person can use diving catch when the ball is thrown (the guy it was aimed at) and hence anyother players while they have a chance to catch the ball are mostly incidental |
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Xeterog
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 24, 2004 - 05:11 |
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That wasn't a suggestion..it's how the skill currently works..you don't have to use DC to move into the square with the ball..you could even move AWAY from the ball if you wanted.. |
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- Xeterog |
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HollowOne
Joined: Sep 23, 2004
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Nov 24, 2004 - 09:41 |
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AbsoluteZero> Actually, I was raising the issue precisely because of what you are saying. It used to be that you could move more than one DC player -- and I agree, if you still could, the probability of combining the two overlapping fields so that at least one of them could catch it would be significantly higher.
However, since in the current incarnation, only the catcher to whom the ball is thrown can use DC, this factor isn't much of an issue. Additional catchers can't move and therefore will only occupy a single square, even if they have DC. Since the main DC catcher will already be covering the most significant squares, then each additional catcher would only gain a "12" square, thus only improving the probability of the shot being on target by under 3% per "body".
Gortex> You raise a valid point about the possibility of the ball scattering into the grips of a catcher even if the square where it lands is empty. Forgive me for not looking through the rules myself (I'm at work), but would this scenario count as a turnover or not? |
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HollowOne
Joined: Sep 23, 2004
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Nov 24, 2004 - 09:57 |
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Oh, and here's an amusing little tip to deduce from the table: suppose you have a thrower with HMP but no catcher with DC. Since each of the squares surrounding the centre has a higher probability of being the final scatter location of the HMP, you're better off targetting some average lino or whatever with it, and putting the real target(s) of your pass next to him. The probability of the average lino being on target is just under 5%, while the probability of your real catcher(s) being on target is just above 5% per body. |
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hunter
Joined: Aug 11, 2003
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Nov 24, 2004 - 16:21 |
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Gortex> You raise a valid point about the possibility of the ball scattering into the grips of a catcher even if the square where it lands is empty. Forgive me for not looking through the rules myself (I'm at work), but would this scenario count as a turnover or not?
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Not a turnover, as long as someone (on your team) catches it. I've had players catch it who were not the DC that I was targeting, and my turn continuted. I'm not sure, though, about whether it would work the same if your original target was an empty square. My guess is that your turn would continue.
~hunter |
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Xeterog
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 24, 2004 - 17:14 |
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When you pass the ball (including HMP) there are 2 and only 2 things that cause a turnover.
1) Fumbling the ball is a turnover
2) if the ball does not end up in the hands of a player from your team, it is a turn over.
if you throw it to an empty square and it bounces to one of your players who catches the ball..it is not a turnover...heck, the ball could even bounce out of bounds and the fans could throw it around for a bit, but as long as a player on the moving team ends up with the ball..no turnover.
| Quote: | | It used to be that you could move more than one DC player |
No, it has never been true that you can move more than one DC player. From the introduction of 3rd edition till now, you could only use DC if the player with DC was the target of a pass. |
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- Xeterog |
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