borderline
Joined: Nov 05, 2003
|
 Posted:
Dec 09, 2004 - 00:22 |
 
|
Well, unfortunately having a bad game doesn't mean a good game is on the way any time soon. This is true in totally random games, and believing the opposite is called the "gambler's fallacy". In games where skill matters it's even more depressing. But I know what you mean MorbidDeath...
/borderline-in-a-bad-mood |
|
|
BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
|
| Posted:
Dec 09, 2004 - 19:29 |
|
Just FYI, I spent a few minutes updating the log checker 2.0.
It's still not done, as I want to put in breaks to denote when you took your own turn and tidy up some of the code. Also, I'll put in a way to view results that you have previously uploaded as well. For now it just shows you the cumulative data (number of 1s, 2s, etc... number of numbers RR'd into the same numbers and different and number of consecutive die rolls which came up the same as well) and allows you to upload and view the data from one of your own files - then adding it to the totals.
Source code is up but is completely lacking in comments so far... so it's nearly impossible to figure out. Sorry about that but I was just making it up as I went along, so it's a bit disorganized. |
_________________
Ta-Ouch! of BloodBowl
Condensed Guide for Newbies |
|
Lamoron
Joined: Apr 21, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 09, 2004 - 20:53 |
|
Well, just adding my two cents here... lady-luck is just as moody in real life... my tabletop Orc team have had a total of 43 skills:
1 Double.
6 Stat increases. (2 ST, 3 AG, 1 MA)
36 regular skills.
So, should I whine about the single double? or enjoy the stat increases?
I have seen teams destroyed by bad luck in real life as well, I have seen a player do 36 GFI (not kidding) and not fail a single one, and I have seen a player do an entire game without a single succesfull GFI.
Get over it, IF the randomiser was broken, smart people would have fixed it... some of them play here to you know! |
_________________
"When in trouble, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout" |
|
Reaper
Joined: Nov 09, 2003
|
| Posted:
Dec 11, 2004 - 04:45 |
|
The number genereator isnt broken...it just hates me.  |
|
|
Fayeed
Joined: Nov 11, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 12, 2004 - 10:05 |
|
I like the idea about the script...that should put an end to the Generator is broken discussion..
Having said that...
I actually never said it was broken...I said i had bad luck, and/or my Processor (wich i beleive in my inferioer computer knowledge, to be the one the number generator uses to make the numbers) hates me.
So when asking for solutions i didnt mean rewrite the game or anything, but i was asking for some good woodoo and stuff.. Cause at this point i am ready to try anything, maybe even dump the girlfriend..
And true i have had a few lucky games, sadly not enough to balance the unlucky ones lol...In time i might get a streak of lucky games..and when i do i will be unstoppable heh..... |
|
|
Mezir
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
|
| Posted:
Dec 12, 2004 - 13:47 |
|
Thank you BadMrMojo!
Amazing log-checker there!
When you get up to over a hundred matches, tell me, and I'll do a somewhat more detailed statistical analysis of the results.
I'll also start uploading the .logs for my own games soon.  |
_________________
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day; set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life. |
|
nazerdemus
Joined: Nov 02, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 12, 2004 - 14:44 |
|
| Delta wrote: | naz.....erm isn't that 120 rolled dice?
Besides, 20 of each would never be random. 1 x 6's and 119 x 1's. That's random!!
Surely the fact that some people have awful games, and some have truly brilliant ones would prove that things are random?
Anyway, let's try and put a stop to this, as this topic has been mentioned almost as many times as fouling.
BTW, Fouling...truly random or Broken?  |
UMM I was quoting someone else ,who said that 20% of the time the same number ALWAYS CAME UP
over a 4 game period you definetly wont get a perfect 16% for each 6 available numbers , its to do with random distributuion curves , even over a million games you wont get it perfectly equally distributed ,
Over 4 games you could easily get
20% 1s
12% 2s
16% 3s
17% 4s
15% 5s
20% 6s
This is still highly possible within random probabilitry. SOME PEOPLE WONT ACCEPT SOMETHING IS RANDOM UNLESS OVER 6 consecutive DICE ROLLS YOU GET A 1 , A 2, A 3 ,A 4 ,A 5, AND A 6 IN A RANDOM ORDER . |
|
|
nazerdemus
Joined: Nov 02, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 12, 2004 - 14:56 |
|
And a quick note for people who dont understand possibility
THIS IS THE SAMPLE put on by bad mr mojo 1 5 1 6 5 1 6 5 2 1 6 1 1 2 4 4 1 2 5 4 4 4 3 1 5 3 3 3 6 2 1 1 2 6 3 5 3 1 2 3 3 1 1 * 5 4 1 3 * 2 5 1 6 5 4 6 3 1 3 1 6 * 1 3 3 5 2 * 6 1 5 4 4 3 3 3 1 2 2 5 2 5 5 2 1 4 * 2 6 * 2 6 1 5 5 2 5 3 * 2 3 3 1 4 * 3 4 5 1 4 2 5 5 4 3 * 3 * 5 3 5 6 6 4 4 1 4 1 6 1 3 6 2 5 4 5 5 1 3 2 6 * 1 2 1 1 6 2 2 6 5 2 1 6 * 5 * 1 4 2 1 2 * 3 3 5 4 2 6 * 2 4 1 1 3 5 6 2 2 * 4 1 4 4 1 1 * 2 4 5 4 6 1 5 4 6 3 5 4 6 4 1 6 1 4 * 3 4 5 5 6 4 6 1 1 4 4 4 3 3 5 4 1 3 6 6 5 1 5 3 3 6 5 5 6 1 3 2 6 6 2 5 6 2 5 1 4 2 4 4 6 2 1 3 6 4 2 6 2 5 2 6 5 3 5 2 6 1 1 4 3 5 3 3 2 2 3 4 6 4 6 6 1 1 2 4 3 1 5 2 5 3 3 3 2 1 3 2 6 2 6 1 6 1
the number sequence below has an equal chance of occuring as the one above (assuming there are the same number of rolls in each sequence(which there arent because i couldnt be botherd to count how many i needed)
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
its called random as there is no control over it i am equally likely to roll a one ,two , three, four ,five or six each time I roll the dice and the previous roll has no bearing on the current roll . |
|
|
Habeli
Joined: Mar 04, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 12, 2004 - 15:16 |
|
Here what i do when bad luck strikes me:
I play with Gobs, with em luck is allways bad so its fun to see how things can go, usually luck changes and I might even win, allthought gobs die dodging etc. also 4vs4 is relaxing when u don't have luck. |
|
|
DropDeadFred
Joined: Mar 05, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 12, 2004 - 16:18 |
|
| browwnrob_ni wrote: | bad luck sure does come in droves! I had a 100 game bad luck streak heh!
|
its not badluck, its just that you suck rob |
_________________
Sk8bcn is unhappy with my sig so i have changed it to this |
|
Nordmark
Joined: Sep 09, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 12, 2004 - 16:53 |
|
Just play ball.
We all have our ups and downs but thats just life.
Lady Luck always enjoy playing with your minds. |
|
|
Fayeed
Joined: Nov 11, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 12, 2004 - 17:34 |
|
| nazerdemus wrote: | And a quick note for people who dont understand possibility
THIS IS THE SAMPLE put on by bad mr mojo 1 5 1 6 5 1 6 5 2 1 6 1 1 2 4 4 1 2 5 4 4 4 3 1 5 3 3 3 6 2 1 1 2 6 3 5 3 1 2 3 3 1 1 * 5 4 1 3 * 2 5 1 6 5 4 6 3 1 3 1 6 * 1 3 3 5 2 * 6 1 5 4 4 3 3 3 1 2 2 5 2 5 5 2 1 4 * 2 6 * 2 6 1 5 5 2 5 3 * 2 3 3 1 4 * 3 4 5 1 4 2 5 5 4 3 * 3 * 5 3 5 6 6 4 4 1 4 1 6 1 3 6 2 5 4 5 5 1 3 2 6 * 1 2 1 1 6 2 2 6 5 2 1 6 * 5 * 1 4 2 1 2 * 3 3 5 4 2 6 * 2 4 1 1 3 5 6 2 2 * 4 1 4 4 1 1 * 2 4 5 4 6 1 5 4 6 3 5 4 6 4 1 6 1 4 * 3 4 5 5 6 4 6 1 1 4 4 4 3 3 5 4 1 3 6 6 5 1 5 3 3 6 5 5 6 1 3 2 6 6 2 5 6 2 5 1 4 2 4 4 6 2 1 3 6 4 2 6 2 5 2 6 5 3 5 2 6 1 1 4 3 5 3 3 2 2 3 4 6 4 6 6 1 1 2 4 3 1 5 2 5 3 3 3 2 1 3 2 6 2 6 1 6 1
the number sequence below has an equal chance of occuring as the one above (assuming there are the same number of rolls in each sequence(which there arent because i couldnt be botherd to count how many i needed)
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
its called random as there is no control over it i am equally likely to roll a one ,two , three, four ,five or six each time I roll the dice and the previous roll has no bearing on the current roll . |
Hummm you are of course right if you go to the very core and imagine an infinite number of rolls... Like the an infinete number off monkey typing for eternaty would eventually write every thing that ever happened or ever will happend..
However if i ever got a game with the above examples of all 6's i would suspect something was wrong..and so would you..
In reality its posible to do a random number of games and rolls..and compare the dice rolled.
It is true that a slight diviation in % is exspected...so in stead of 6 times 16% you could get a few on 20% and a few on 12%....the question is...how big a swing is accepteble..
If 1's ahow up 50% or 6's show up 50% its an indication something is wrong...and the more dice rolls you have the higher the indication...Mind you i didnt say prof...but indication.
So in a million rolls...how much would be accepteble? 3-4% i would say as max. But thats my opinion.
in a billion rolls i would cut that to 2-3% at max. |
|
|
LordSnotball
Joined: Nov 05, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 12, 2004 - 18:29 |
|
Personally i find that my luck here is mildly better than IRL... I rolled six 1s on the trot once playing necromunda, which was my worst occassion... normally i rolled just four 1s.
as for bloodbowl, the trick i think is eliminating luck as far as possible, but knowing where to draw the line... by the time you have blitzed an opponent, stripped him of the ball, had someone doge in and out, pass it to your scorer... your luck as been exquisite already... one GFI won't kill you!
well, maybe me, but not u |
_________________
-Snottie
The Congregation - Always Recruiting
[url=http://igolocal.net/badge.php?user_id=1949] [/url] |
|
Glomp
Joined: Jan 04, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 12, 2004 - 19:43 |
|
(1) Heavy Bolter has failed its ammo check!
(1) Heavy Bolter explodes!
Ahh fun fun fun. |
_________________
Forum terrorist. |
|
PeteW
Joined: Aug 05, 2005
|
| Posted:
Aug 19, 2005 - 18:37 |
|
I just played a game where I felt that I was significantly unlucky and at the end, my luck stat was 37%. Can anyone beat that?! (On the other hand I have had some ludicrously lucky games, so I'm not really complaining.) |
_________________
"Jesus loves me this I know, 'cos my Bible tells me so." MrMojo - where did you go? |
|
|
|
| |
FUMBBL HAIKU'S
Search
