| Poll |
| Please read the proposition in full before answering. |
| Yes, your logic is sound and experience agrees. |
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9% |
[ 4 ] |
| Your logic is fine, but sorry mate, doesn't happen. |
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13% |
[ 6 ] |
| No, you're off your rocker, and here's why... |
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40% |
[ 18 ] |
| I won't read the proposition before I vote, because I never do |
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4% |
[ 2 ] |
| I have an overwhelming compulsion to answer polls. |
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31% |
[ 14 ] |
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| Total Votes : 44 |
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Macavity
Joined: Nov 23, 2004
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 Posted:
Feb 16, 2005 - 18:01 |
 
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Since the in game luck meter (which I know doesn't and shouldn't matter to any decent coach) calculates based on successful rolls..... Shouldn't wood elves have higher luck than most teams? They have the high AG, so are going to be picking the ball up and dodging more easily.. Throwing probably equals itself out, because at higher distances it is harder anyway. The big difference would be in blocking. I know a lot of coaches will try one dice blocks if they are away from the action based on having one or a combination of skill, re-roll, or AV advantage. I haven't coached a wood elf team on fumbbl, but I'm guessing with players that expensive and AV 7 you only block when odds are greatly in your favour. put this together and (since your luck percentage is only affected on your turn) wood elves should have a noticeably higher average luck rating than, say Orcs. Ok, now answer the poll.
P.S. I'm also thinking that for these reasons, "luck" is tied into balancing. |
_________________
When I became a man I put away childish things, including the fear of childishness and the desire to be very grown up. -C.S. Lewis |
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AFK_Eagle
Joined: Mar 12, 2004
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| Posted:
Feb 16, 2005 - 18:10 |
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I disagree. The luck guage will factor in successful actions, not the individual die used to determine the action. So an elf tries to dodge away, using either dodge/team reroll, he'll have basically two chances. When an orc hits, he'll usually get a 2d block, which with rr gives him 4 die, so 4 chances, to have a successful outcome. Now multiply this by the number of dodges an elf pulls off during a game, vs the number of blocks thrown by an orc, and you'll see that if anything elves should be LESS lucky. Orcs won't attempt as many passes, so won't fail as many; you'll rarely see an orc dodging; he hits for 4 dice worth of effort to get the result he wants. Not to say orcs are the luckiest, but I disagree with your logic in favor of the elves. |
_________________
Listen to Eagle! Eagle is good, Eagle is wise!
Founder of the E.L.F.--These elves will play anybody! |
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Deathmoore
Joined: Jan 26, 2005
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| Posted:
Feb 16, 2005 - 18:10 |
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Actually, my understanding of the luck meter is that it calculates your flat rolls, and not your results. So say you rolled a 2 a 2 and a 6, the luck meter would go down for the two two's, even if it was successful cause of high agility. On the block dice, the luck would be calculated probably based on which actual side the dice lands on, like pow or skull.
One reason I think this is because even if you have 5ag, a 1 still fails nomatter what, and thats bad luck, so in essence almost getting a 1 is bad luck too. |
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freak_in_a_frock
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Feb 16, 2005 - 18:12 |
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Your logic is extremely flawed, if you have more chance of success then when you do fail the luck meter will fall by more, technically the more rerolls you have the luckier you will be, since the client doesn't count the roll before it is rerolled, so you will pass even more. |
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Mith
Joined: Jan 17, 2005
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| Posted:
Feb 16, 2005 - 18:13 |
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luck meter calculates the rolls not the out come of said rolls or the skills that screw the rolls up |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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| Posted:
Feb 16, 2005 - 18:17 |
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I have an overwhelming compulsion to answer polls.
 |
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Macavity
Joined: Nov 23, 2004
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| Posted:
Feb 16, 2005 - 18:17 |
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Freak, I stand corrected.
Eagle, Most orcs have Str 3. My point was that AV 9 guys tend to risk more one dice blocks and accept more both down results... maybe not.. |
_________________
When I became a man I put away childish things, including the fear of childishness and the desire to be very grown up. -C.S. Lewis |
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BunnyPuncher
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Feb 16, 2005 - 18:23 |
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Actually I would argue that elves will have the lowest luck due to the fact that they make a great deal more dangerous rolls (lots of no dodge dodges, lots of hand offs, lots of passes, in other words, lots of 1/6s) where brute teams tend to mainly do actions that are 1/36s, make one or two risky moves (aka a dodge/pass/handoff) but rarely mess around with the dice rolls.
That said. I'll be damned if i know exactly how the luck meter works. |
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BunnyPuncher
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Feb 16, 2005 - 18:41 |
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For the curious... this is data from the old [R] division for all games played in 2003 on fumbbl...
The stats for khemri/nurgles/pro-elfs (and necros methinks) should be ignored as the results are based on only a handful of games (this was when they switched over to R).
LEGEND:
1. Amazon
2. Chaos
3. Chaos Dwarf
4. Dark Elf
5. Dwarf
6. Elf
7. Goblin
8. Halfling
9. High Elf
10. Human
11. Khemri
12. Lizardmen
13. Necromantic
14. Norse
15. Nurgle's Rotters
16. Orc
17. Skaven
18. Undead
19. Wood Elf
Hypothesis + Data = Solution!
A one-way ANOVA suggests those differences are not caused by chance (p<.01)
EDIT: if you don't see the bar chart, photbucket is down for a wee bit by the looks of things. |
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AFK_Eagle
Joined: Mar 12, 2004
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| Posted:
Feb 16, 2005 - 21:43 |
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Precisely as I was predicting, the pass-happy are on the low end of the luck scale, while those who do a single ball-pickup (if lucky to pick it up first time) and then grind are the luckiest, getting 4 dice blocks to help improve odds of success. This would tend to suggest the luck guage varies based on end results, not intermediate results, aka if you get one POW on 4 dice, doesn't matter if other three are skulls, the POW will raise your luck... |
_________________
Listen to Eagle! Eagle is good, Eagle is wise!
Founder of the E.L.F.--These elves will play anybody! |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Feb 17, 2005 - 13:41 |
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imagine you are an strong hitting team. You cage. ok your guy is safe. Therefore you will start hitting -maybe you can clean the field- (and as AFK said it's 2d + eventually 2more with reroll).
Now suppose you are an elf coach. A pass + dodge or something alike can lead you to score but if you fail, it can become critical (blitz or alike).
I won't risk by any way loosing my reroll to do some unecessary moves nor risk the skulls. So I make the pass early in the turn to score.
Since I rolled only a few, my luck meter goes more down if I fail.
Besides, I will tend to have less guard players, therefore less 2d blocks wich are the safetiestest rolls anyway, so less rolls, so more drops when I fail. |
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