Rynkky
Joined: Aug 03, 2004
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 Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 20:57 |
 
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| JanMattys wrote: | Am I the only one thinking that this thread is completely absurd????
I mean...
*snip*
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I tried, I really tried but I could not make sense, sorry. In a way I got your point but thinking further I lost it. You're saying that it doesn't matter what rolls you get if you get the six when you need. Isn't this a bit too obvious to state after long example? |
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thesquig
Joined: Apr 11, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 21:00 |
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| DonKosak wrote: | I can now confirm that we have a highly skilled Javaprogrammer among us. I've tested the program in a localhost non-Fumbbl game and it surely predicts the coming rolls. Rynkky deserves credit for proving that it is possible, and as I believe that he wouldn't have posted in this forum if he wanted to cheat, he deserves credit for not doing so too.
I totally agree, that using the program here on Fumbbl would be cheating. I have deleted the program from my computer.
I sincerely hope, that SkiJunkie and Rynkky will get in contact - it could make the client an even greater tool and Fumbbl even funnier. |
Ok. So lets develop a way to prevent this then? He cant be the only decent Java programmer in the world  |
_________________
Nuffle Sucks!!!
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DonKosak
Joined: Apr 06, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 01, 2005 - 21:06 |
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| thesquig wrote: | | Ok. So lets develop a way to prevent this then? He cant be the only decent Java programmer in the world |
Precisely. That's why I really hope that SkiJunkie is interested in receiving Rynkky's advice. |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 00:07 |
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| CircularLogic wrote: | | Rynkky wrote: | | SubSonic wrote: | | trouble wrote: |
So if you rolled 111111 the odds of the next dice being a 1 are less because six ones have already been used. Its not much less, but it is less. |
it just doesnt work that way... |
Explain me why? I'll explain you why I think you're wrong.
Lets assume that random number generator uses 32-bit seed. If that is the case, then the random number series will be 2^32 (4294967296) numbers long. Now, if you take those six ones out of those 4294967296, doesn't it mean that you'll have six ones less in the rest 4294967290 rolls? For me it does because random number generator can be perceived as a LIMITED pool of random numbers, from which you just pick the next available. With same seed the numbers and the order will always be same. |
Thx Rynkky, you have successfully argued against your own statement.
Some basic mathematics show, that 2^32 has no prime factor 3 in it, hence it´s not possible to divide it by 6 without fractions. This shows us, that there is NOT an equal amount of every number from 1-6 possible. As the numberstring according to you contains 2^X (with X= bits of seed) values, it doesn´t matter what seed is taken.
That´s what I expected, because the string of numbers should be random enough for our purpose, meaning with no discernable pattern within a sample size of less then 1k rolls (which is a BB-game). Sure, you have a gigantic sample size, so the average of all rolls will be damn close to 3.5, but that´s what the "Law of great number" (or what the "Gesetz der großen Zahlen" is called in english) postulates. The average is only near 3.5 because of the huge amount of rolls and there is no "evening out" enforced, meaning, that in every 600 rolls, some king of alorithm checks, that there are 100 1s and 100 6s. If you generate string long enough, you will get a string with ONLY 6s in it (though you have to bring up some patience  )
The major fact derived from this is:
The chance for rolling a 1 after 10 1s is as high as rolling ANY other number (OK... 7 isn´t really as likely, but you know what I mean).
So you can talk about a random enough generator, even if it may seem otherwise. I can show you a replay, where my elves have failed every single 2+ roll not backed up by a reroll for a whole half.
btw:
I tend to believe Rynkky, how the numbers are generated, instead of the quote of BMM, but Rynkky is wrong on the math behind it IMO. That´s simply because of the fact, that BMM´s way would make the sync of rolls impossible.
The program Rynkky talks about must be a crack of the JBB-tool, as there is no way of recalculating the seed within the first 100 rolls, if JBB-tool starts on a random position in the string. To predict the dice rolls, you will have to know to variables (seed and position), which I can´t believe to be derived with only 100 rolls given. To make a prediction, you have to get those 2 variables (which are shared by host&client to get rolls in sync), which only works in form of a hack.
A last point:
I´m don´t know much about proggin/Java, I just know about math. |
well I always tough rand gave you a random floating number between 0 and 1 from the list of 2^32 numbers.
oh and circular, just try a statistical test and I am rather sure that it will have an average of 3.5.
test the hypothesis H0 current average obtained vs m=3.5 will occur with probability at 100%-epsilon.
though I really would like to enter into a maths debate but I am too limited in english to mix well in that and to lazy to start calculation on the site. Maths are for my work, BB for my fun ;p |
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LordSnotball
Joined: Nov 05, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 00:12 |
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| BadMrMojo wrote: |
Let's look at a purely hypothetical, extreme, will never happen, worst case scenario. Your opponent rolled nothing but sixes all match long. Impossible? Not with truly random numbers... just infinitessimally unlikely. Anyway, let's say that your opponent rolled 1,000 sixes and you haven't rolled a single six all game (you've rolled 999 non-sixes, just for the sake of argument). Now, finally, on the very last roll of the game, you need to get a six. How much has your opponent's luck affected your rolls?
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just for the sake of the argument, you are a halfling coach, you receive the ball on turn one, block everyone, and because you are rolling 6s, you end up killing every single player on the opponents team by turn 4 (having scored 2 tds by throwing teammates which now always work...)
then, turn 16, winning now around 10-0, your treeman has to toss that halfing for the 10th time... would it work?
that's a more realistic interpretation! the answer is, hell yeah! |
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Rynkky
Joined: Aug 03, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 07:39 |
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| Quote: | | well I always tough rand gave you a random floating number between 0 and 1 from the list of 2^32 numbers. |
It really depends on the implementation. Many of them calculate random as an integer and then scale it to range [0..1]. Also the list can be anything between 2^8 -> 2^64 or even more. |
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Rynkky
Joined: Aug 03, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 07:50 |
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| DonKosak wrote: | | thesquig wrote: | | Ok. So lets develop a way to prevent this then? He cant be the only decent Java programmer in the world |
Precisely. That's why I really hope that SkiJunkie is interested in receiving Rynkky's advice. |
I just contacted SkiJunkie via PM. I am waiting for his response. |
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odi
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 08:59 |
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So there is no admin client, rynkky's program is just an admin add on 
Well, atleast no-one can blame me on using that, since I don't need to know what I'm rolling next, they're all 6's anyway. |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 09:25 |
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| Rynkky wrote: | | Quote: | | well I always tough rand gave you a random floating number between 0 and 1 from the list of 2^32 numbers. |
It really depends on the implementation. Many of them calculate random as an integer and then scale it to range [0..1]. Also the list can be anything between 2^8 -> 2^64 or even more. |
so if it's really the case, since it's an int(rand()*6)+1 circular's argument don't work for javabloodbowl |
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Rynkky
Joined: Aug 03, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 09:44 |
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| sk8bcn wrote: | | Rynkky wrote: | | Quote: | | well I always tough rand gave you a random floating number between 0 and 1 from the list of 2^32 numbers. |
It really depends on the implementation. Many of them calculate random as an integer and then scale it to range [0..1]. Also the list can be anything between 2^8 -> 2^64 or even more. |
so if it's really the case, since it's an int(rand()*6)+1 circular's argument don't work for javabloodbowl |
I think I need to clarify my sayings. In Java 48 bits are being used in random, thus string length is 2^48. I was referring to more generic case where number of bits used in calculation varies, changing the maximum possible string length. |
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Tommi
Joined: May 17, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 09:58 |
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| Quote: |
I can now confirm that we have a highly skilled Javaprogrammer among us. I've tested the program in a localhost non-Fumbbl game and it surely predicts the coming rolls. Rynkky deserves credit for proving that it is possible, and as I believe that he wouldn't have posted in this forum if he wanted to cheat, he deserves credit for not doing so too.
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Oh, that's no good!
Buy a very good prediction program now that you still have a chance to use it before the client is altered!
Only 500€ a piece! PM me!
Rynkky: do you happen to have an old version with unobfuscated code? |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 10:10 |
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| Rynkky wrote: | | sk8bcn wrote: | | Rynkky wrote: | | Quote: | | well I always tough rand gave you a random floating number between 0 and 1 from the list of 2^32 numbers. |
It really depends on the implementation. Many of them calculate random as an integer and then scale it to range [0..1]. Also the list can be anything between 2^8 -> 2^64 or even more. |
so if it's really the case, since it's an int(rand()*6)+1 circular's argument don't work for javabloodbowl |
I think I need to clarify my sayings. In Java 48 bits are being used in random, thus string length is 2^48. I was referring to more generic case where number of bits used in calculation varies, changing the maximum possible string length. |
I am lost now. could you reewplain how it works easily. My weakness in english and programmation definitly hinder me to get the whole thing |
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Rynkky
Joined: Aug 03, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 10:24 |
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| Tommi wrote: |
Rynkky: do you happen to have an old version with unobfuscated code? |
No I don't have and I would not need one either. There's no need to decompile client. Predictor can be done using possibilities given by Java. Also doing it this way makes tool very generic (i.e. works with every version of JBB, at least 7.0 ->).
Now, that I have contacted SkiJunkie about this problem I think I can reveal a secret that it is also possible to fake rolls in JBB. This is possible because JBB client has couple implementation flaws. These rolls cannot be detected by the opponent even if he/she is using verify rolls option. No need to get paranoid though, as I am pretty sure that noone is taking advantage of these flaws at the moment. |
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Melonhead
Joined: Feb 16, 2005
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 10:26 |
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So there's a cheat program...that explains why i just lost 6 games in a row. Or maybe the dice generator is crap. I know it can't just be me sucking.... |
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Tommi
Joined: May 17, 2004
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| Posted:
Jun 02, 2005 - 11:03 |
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| Quote: |
No I don't have and I would not need one either. There's no need to decompile client. Predictor can be done using possibilities given by Java. Also doing it this way makes tool very generic (i.e. works with every version of JBB, at least 7.0 ->).
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Was thinking about it the hard way. Though it would be nice if the next numbers would show in the client window.
Dont know if it was a secret though, anyone with enough knowledge of Java knows it can be done (or can be tried), and for the rest of the population it doesnt matter because they cant do it.
...
The random seed is global between VM:s? Or the same VM runs all different apps? Or the client does not reset the seed? How does it actually work? |
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