MrMojo
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
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 Posted:
Oct 24, 2005 - 16:56 |
 
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| Slick wrote: | /me smacks Macavity upside the head for spamming. Let's stick to serious answers for at least a few posts please. 
Note to self: Curiousity killed the Slick, by smothering him in Spam. |
YOu mathematicians always take yourself too seriously. World is a pancake, trust me. |
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Webbe
Joined: Aug 13, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 24, 2005 - 17:07 |
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Note though that claw increase the result from the block more often than MB even against av7 (that is causing a more prones and KOs)
Edit: Made a little table:
| Code: | results with a successfull block against AV7 with:
prone stunned KO cas
nothing: 58.3% (7/12) 24.3% (35/144) 10.4% (5/48) 6.9% (5/72)
MB: 41.6% (5/12) 27.0% (13/48) 16.9% (73/432) 14.4% (31/216)
Claw: 27.8% (5/18) 42.1% (91/216) 18.1% (13/72) 12.0% (13/108)
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Meech
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
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| Posted:
Oct 24, 2005 - 20:02 |
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What if I fouled a golin with 2 assists while swinging a monkey by the tail? |
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Putting the FU in fumbbl since 9/2005 |
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Drud
Joined: Jan 27, 2005
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| Posted:
Oct 25, 2005 - 18:37 |
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There'd be an 83.3% (2+) chance of the monkey biting of your hand. Then there'd be a 55.6% (5+ with reroll) chance of the goblin getting away. A 33% (5+) chance of him fouling you back, a 41.7% (15/36) chance of him breaking your AV followed by a 16.7% (10+) chance of a casualty, again followed by a 16.7% (6) of you dying.
So, if you foul a goblin with 2 assists (who are negated by the swinging monkey) while swinging a monkey by the tail, there's a 1.7% chance of your dying.
Seems like good odds to me. |
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AFK_Eagle
Joined: Mar 12, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 28, 2005 - 16:26 |
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ROFLMAO!! Drud, that is the funniest post I've seen in a LONG time! |
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Founder of the E.L.F.--These elves will play anybody! |
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Drud
Joined: Jan 27, 2005
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| Posted:
Oct 29, 2005 - 14:29 |
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Why, thank you 
Only problem is I forgot to add in the apoth...
So chances for survival are, of course, greater then the calculations above suggest |
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Markusen
Joined: Jan 23, 2005
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| Posted:
Oct 29, 2005 - 14:56 |
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You also ignored the possibility of a misclick, dude!!!
To calculate this you definitly have to now about the value of coffee a playerd drunk before/while playing. |
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Markusen
Joined: Jan 23, 2005
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| Posted:
Oct 29, 2005 - 14:58 |
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@MrMojo: I like your old picture more then the actual  |
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MrMojo
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 29, 2005 - 15:00 |
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Why? What's wrong with my face? |
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Optihut
Joined: Dec 16, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 31, 2005 - 12:50 |
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I guess it's just force of habit, at first I didn't realize it was you and when I did notice I thought "Oh my, the old avatar looked better". |
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Laviak
Joined: Jul 19, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 31, 2005 - 12:59 |
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Don't force it MrMojo - he's doing his best to be polite! |
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We Fink Wer Orks
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Help save blood bowl, foul an elf today!. |
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MrMojo
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 31, 2005 - 13:35 |
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Well, you don't have to look at my face in the mirror everyday, be glad about  |
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My post count
Jesus loves me this I know, 'cos my Bible tells me so. |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 31, 2005 - 16:49 |
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| Slick wrote: | Anyone know how to properly predict the casualty rate for MB? Against armor 7 I came up with this => ( ( ( (21/36) * (6/36) ) + ( (15/36) * (10/36) ) ) / 2) = 23/216 or .10648
Is this correct?
LOL. Apparently if you put an 8 and a ) you get a smiley with shades. |
P(cas|MB and AV7)=P(cas|MB used on armor)+P(cas|MB use on injury roll)
so calculation 1: P(cas|MB used on armor)=P(rolling 7 on armor)*P(injury roll gives a cas) = 6/36 * 6/36=1/36
calculation 2:
P(cas|MB used on injury roll= P(rolling 8 or more on armor) *P(injury roll give a cas so 9 or more) = 15/36*10/36= 5/12 * 5/18=25/216
So now P(injury|MB and Av 7) = 1/36+25/216=31/216=14,35%
Changing the Av changes intermediary P(rolling x on armor). So it's not that difficult to change.
I made calculation for claw vs MB and claw is usually weaker as MB but the best choice IMo is to opt out for Claw + MB (RSC is costly for a double)
Anyway I feel ok with a stun so I prefer Claw. Whatever
nb: to MrMojo: usefull post or not? no??? still not? |
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Macavity
Joined: Nov 23, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 31, 2005 - 16:53 |
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Non, ce n'est pas vraiment utile. |
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When I became a man I put away childish things, including the fear of childishness and the desire to be very grown up. -C.S. Lewis |
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DD
Joined: Aug 12, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 31, 2005 - 16:53 |
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| Macavity wrote: | | Math? There's a reaosn I married an accountant's daughter, you know.... sheesh.... |
Damn, you too?
Also's great for tax returns... |
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