pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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 Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 18:57 |
 
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[Disclaimer: This may have been discussed in similar depth before, however, a quick search did not reveal any previous threads dedicated to an analysis of Shadowing.]
<b>Shadowing analysis</b>
Since I am planning to spend more time developing a Human team in the future (though I am always planning to spend more time developing a Human team in the future!), I decided to run the numbers on Shadowing: a skill most commonly associated with Human Blitzers. The following may or may not be news to you, and it may or may not be of interest. I, for one, had known for a long time that Shadowing was a skill I underrated, but had never actually examined the statistics in depth before.
For Shadowing (G) to work, both the dodging and the shadowing player roll one dice and add MA, the shadower needing to beat <i>or match</i> the other player's total to follow him. Thus the odds of success are as follows, depending on the difference in MA between the two players:
[Note: this was originally formed into a nice aligned table, but the forum didn't like my code.  If anyone can give me some hints, I'll tidy it up. Edit: I'd love to replace this table with that produced by brownrob a little further down, but even when I just copy and paste his code, the forum doesn't seem to like it here ... So: please consult brownrob's post below for a far superior table!  ]
MA Difference -- Chance of Shadowing Successfully
-------------------- Out of 36 -- Simplified fraction -- Percentage
<i>Shadower slower</i>
-6 MA or more -- 0/36 ---- 0 ---- 0%
-5 MA ------------ 1/36 --- 1/36 -- 2.8%
-4 MA ------------ 3/36 --- 1/12 -- 8.3%
-3 MA ------------ 6/36 --- 1/6 --- 16.7%
-2 MA ------------ 10/36 -- 5/18 -- 27.8%
-1 MA ------------ 15/36 -- 5/12 -- 41.7%
equal MA -------- 21/36 -- 7/12 -- 58.3%
+1 MA ----------- 26/36 -- 13/18 -- 72.2%
+2 MA ----------- 30/36 -- 5/6 --- 83.3%
+3 MA ----------- 33/36 -- 11/12 -- 91.7%
+4 MA ----------- 35/36 -- 35/36 -- 97.2%
+5 MA or more -- 36/36 -- 1 -- 100%
<i>Shadower faster</i>
<i>Comparisons with similar skills</i>:
<i>Tackle</i> (G) only has an effect if the moving player has <i>Dodge</i>. In this case, Tackle has an effect: 1 time in 6 against an AG 4+ player; 1 time in 3 against AG 3 (depending also on TZs). The coach of the moving player can use a TRR (if available) in place of Dodge. (However, Tackle also has its effect when blocking a Dodge player.)
<i>Diving Tackle</i> (A) reduces the moving player's chance to dodge by 1 in 3 against AG 4 or less; 1 in 6 against AG 5; and not at all against AG 6 (depending also on TZs). Diving Tackle is a one-off and puts the tackling player on the ground.
<i>Prehensile Tail</i> (M) reduces the moving player's chance to dodge by 1 in 6 against AG 4 or less; and not at all against AG 5+ (depending also on TZs).
(In each of these last two cases the reductions are an absolute value, not a proportion of the base chance. The chance to succeed in a dodge can never be reduced below 1 in 6.)
<i>Tentacles</i> (M) requires a whole table of analysis to itself. Suffice to say that the Shadowing or Tentacles dilemma is one few coaches will ever face.
<i>Combos with other skills</i>:
<i>Block</i> (harder to blitz the Shadower away from the marked player)
<i>Dirty Player</i> (come on, you were thinking it too!)
<i>Pass Block</i> (move to intercept if the player chooses to throw rather than dodge (preferably with Stand Firm, various dodging skills, various interception skills))
<i>Tackle</i>
<i>Sidestep</i> (harder to blitz the Shadower away from the marked player)
<i>Stand Firm</i> (harder to blitz the Shadower away from the marked player)
<i>Prehensile Tail</i>
<i>Tentacles</i> (in theory only: in practice no player really has both sufficiently high MA and ST and access to mutations. It might be worth some thought on +ST Beastmen, +MA Chaos Warriors, and +ST Skaven though)
<i>Very Long Legs</i> [Edit: In fact it seems that in the client, Very Long Legs does not combo with Shadowing. General opinion seems to be that this is a client feature only, and that in LRB the combo should work. However, as far as Java is concerned, this is not a working combo. This also renders two of my suggested players below less effective.]
+MA
<i>Combos that don't work</i>:
<i>Diving Tackle</i> (can only use this or Shadowing)
<i>Pro</i> (can't be used passively in the client)
<i>Sprint/Sure Feet</i> (only base MA is used for the Shadowing roll: more importantly, this means Shadowing is especially good against Break Tackle Bull Centaurs [and we all hate them!])
<i>Three examples of Shadowing players</i>:
<i>An easily achievable player</i>:
<b>'Mad' Mark MacManmarker - Human Blitzer</b>
Shadowing, Tackle, Stand Firm (three advances: one double skill)
Has a good chance of inconveniencing even MA 9 AG 4 players. An absolute nightmare for any MA 6 AG 3 player who wants to dodge away from him. Perhaps a bit of a specialist, but still effective at blitzing with Tackle and still handy on the line with Stand Firm. Surely a not-too-rare player for any Human coach without too severe a Guard addiction. (Based on my analysis of the chart at the top, +MA is preferable on a Shadowing Blitzer, but far from essential.)
<i>A piece of prize foul-bait</i>:
<b>Get-get Ball-ball - Skaven Gutter Runner</b>
Shadowing, Block, Pass Block, Catch, Sidestep, Very Long Legs, +MA (seven advances: one double skill; one 10)
Who says one-turn scorers are no good on defence? I thought about picking Tackle or Prehensile Tail with this guy, but then realised that he probably didn't need them: with MA 11 virtually no player is ever going to dodge away from him without being shadowed (MA 8 would have a 1 in 12 chance per dodge). If the player he is marking decides to block him or pass the ball instead, he has a fair chance of foiling those options too. His main weakness could be that the player he is shadowing may just be leading him into a nasty (albeit deserved) block. Despite being a Legend, this guy is surprisingly achievable given how fast Gutter Runners can clock up SPPs: I would not be at all surprised if someone similar had existed on fumbbl at some time.
<i>A terrifying theoretical monster!</i>:
<b>No Escape! - Skaven Rat Ogre</b>
Shadowing, Tentacles, +MA (three advances: two doubles; one 10)
Don't forget that he already has Prehensile Tail! Between Shadowing with MA 7 and Tentacles with ST 5, you're just not going anywhere: if you're strong enough you won't be fast enough; if you're fast enough you won't be strong enough. However, this is a doubles hungry monster: and who would really take Shadowing ahead of Block? Even a two dice against could leave this guy looking foolish. Block, Stand Firm and [Very Long Legs] would make this guy the ultimate man-marker, but guess what - those are all doubles too!
I could analyse the pros and cons of Shadowing at huge length, but I will limit myself to one thought only for now: Shadowing on an Orc Blitzer (even one without +MA) could have been a surprisingly effective weapon in the armoury of the Orc teams in all those Orc-Dark Elf match-ups seen in the FUMBBL Cup. In my opinion, on an MA 6 Orc Blitzer it would be a better option than Diving Tackle (and remember that DT is a doubles roll while Shadowing is not): this would probably even be true against a (rare) MA 8 Dark Elf, and certainly true against any AG 5 elf. One to remember for next year?
(PS - The next Human Blitzer I buy will be called 'Mad' Mark MacManmarker: that's just too good a name not to use on someone real!)
--
[Edit: trying to get brownrob's neater table to work:]
[2nd Edit: Edit bad. pac code bad. brownrob code good. pac fails. ] |
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Last edited by pac on %b %15, %2005 - %18:%Dec; edited 3 times in total |
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SnakeSanders
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 19:04 |
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give me 5 mins and ill tidy it up for you |
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PeteW
Joined: Aug 05, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 19:04 |
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Wow! You've been busy Pete! Thx - very interesting - I'd always passed over shadowing before, but now.... |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 19:07 |
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Ho about my Mov 10 catcher?
Giacomo "Pirco" Barbieri.
10 2 3 7
Catch - Dodge - Block - SideStep - +Ma - +MA - Shadowing
A real pain in the ass even for opposing catchers (imagine for throwers).
Next Skill: Tackle. |
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SnakeSanders
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 19:10 |
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| Code: | MA Diff –--------Chance of Success--------
----------------- /36 -- Fraction --- % -
Shadower slower
-6 MA or more ---00/36 ---- 0 ---- 0.0%
-5 MA -----------01/36 --- 1/36 ---- 2.8%
-4 MA -----------03/36 --- 1/12 ---- 8.3%
-3 MA ---------- 06/36 --- 1/6 ---- 16.7%
-2 MA ---------- 10/36 --- 5/18 ---- 27.8%
-1 MA ---------- 15/36 --- 5/12 ---- 41.7%
Equal MA ------- 21/36 --- 7/12 ---- 58.3%
+1 MA ---------- 26/36 -- 13/18 ---- 72.2%
+2 MA ---------- 30/36 --- 5/6 ---- 83.3%
+3 MA ---------- 33/36 -- 11/12 ---- 91.7%
+4 MA ---------- 35/36 -- 35/36 ---- 97.2%
+5 MA or more -- 36/36 ---- 1 --- 100.0%
Shadower faster
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There you go  |
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tza
Joined: Aug 25, 2004
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 19:14 |
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tza
Joined: Aug 25, 2004
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 19:14 |
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nice one Brownrob |
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veron
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 19:22 |
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Nice in-depth article, pac, good job. Reckon this would be good material for GLN as well. |
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sehou
Joined: Feb 04, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 19:30 |
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Shadowing on a wolf could be nice if it didn't expose it to block and foul combo afterwards. And in time, i'll put it on 1 or 2 of my Undead ghouls, just to muster hatred towards them. Thanks for intelligent thread man, hope it's raising the bar for others to follow. |
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torsoboy
Joined: Nov 23, 2004
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 19:39 |
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Thanks for the number diving. I must say though, that I've never seriously considered taking Shadowing for my Human Blitzers - mostly because I need all the Guard/MB/Tackle I can get my hands on, and they seldom reach 76 to get it. You did convince me to consider Shadowing over Diving Tackle for my Dark Elf Blitzers, and since they already get blodge/SS on normals it's a pretty good deal. |
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The plural of anecdote isn't data. |
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Borgen
Joined: Sep 06, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 20:03 |
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I still think diving tackle is a better idea on anyone with MV 7 or less. Remember what you are defining success as - for shadowing, success is getting to follow the opposing player for one move, with diving tackle - its immediate turnover. Tackle is also a must for effectiveness. You can shadow an AG4 dodge player all you want, to bring them down you basically need to force snake-eyes. For diving tackle, the same AG4 dodge player has a 25% chance of being brought down immediately. (4+ reroll).
Now sometimes you dont need to bring them down with the shadowing to be effective (stick around to make passes more difficult, prevent them from moving INTO tackle zones without harder dodges to assist/blitz, but still, unless you have a great +MV disparity (MA 8 or better) diving tackle will cause far more problems for the opposition. |
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Arktoris
Joined: Feb 16, 2004
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Dec 14, 2005 - 20:04 |
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shadowing is a great skill for wardancers too. They already start with 8M and blodge. Add to that easy access to side step, tackle and they're hard to shake off.
shadowing can also be a decent skill for an orc blitzer too. yes they only have 6move, but when you add in all the guard from the black orcs and such, it reduces the chance of getting a good block/blitz to push him off the ball carrier...and orcs have to make sure the opponent doesn't get too far away...every square lead counts.
to me, Shadowing is the most underestimated skill in the game. |
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Plorg
Joined: May 08, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 20:10 |
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Note that due to the way 2d6 statistics work,
you'll see these same % numbers when calculating
the probability of breaking armor.
| Code: | –--------Chance of Breaking Armor--------
AV --------- /36 - Fraction -- %
12 --------- 00/36 ---- 0 ---- 0.0%
11 --------- 01/36 --- 1/36 ---- 2.8%
10 --------- 03/36 --- 1/12 ---- 8.3% <-- Treeman
9 ---------- 06/36 --- 1/6 ---- 16.7% <-- Dwarf/Orc
8 ---------- 10/36 --- 5/18 ---- 27.8% <-- Chaos/Human/Dark Elf
7 ---------- 15/36 --- 5/12 ---- 41.7% <-- Amazon/Norse/Skaven/Elf
6 ---------- 21/36 --- 7/12 ---- 58.3% <-- Halfling, Amazon/Elf (MB)
5 ---------- 26/36 -- 13/18 ---- 72.2% <-- Halfling (MB), Amazon/Elf (Claw)
4 ---------- 30/36 --- 5/6 ---- 83.3% <-- Halfling (Claw)
3 ---------- 33/36 -- 11/12 ---- 91.7%
2 ---------- 35/36 -- 35/36 ---- 97.2%
Mighty Blow: shift one slot down
Claw: shift two slots down
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Borgen
Joined: Sep 06, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 20:24 |
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If an orc blitzer rolls doubles and takes shadowing over dodge or stand firm, or even frenzy or jump up, he's out of his mind.
EDIT: If shadowing is a general skill (i thought it was AG), this is clearly not as relevant. But an Orc Blitzer still must take at least guard, tackle, mighty blow and pro first |
Last edited by Borgen on %b %14, %2005 - %20:%Dec; edited 3 times in total |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 14, 2005 - 20:31 |
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Thanks for the positive response. Glad this was useful to some.
I didn't want to put too much opinion in my initial post as my goal was to provoke debate rather than pre-empt it. My aim was just to give people the numbers on Shadowing, and get them thinking more about it, rather than to say that it's 'better' than any given skill.
However: regarding Shadowing vs Diving Tackle. Shadowing doesn't <i>quite</i> require snake eyes on a dodge to be effective. The Dodge skill re-roll can only be used once. Shadowing only requires a total of two 1s to be rolled <i>at any point</i> in a sequence of dodges made away from a Shadower (three if you need them to burn a TRR as well).
Certainly Shadowing only performs at its best in combination with Tackle; but then the same is true of Diving Tackle. Also, many elf coaches will dodge frequently with non-Dodge players, against whom Tackle is irrelevant (some elf coaches even avoid taking Dodge on skill picks at all in an effort to make the opposition's Tacklers worthless). Diving Tackle is of limited use against AG 5 players (and none against AG 6 players) (depending on TZs on the dodge, of course).
Last but not least, Diving Tackle is a doubles pick for many players who would like it, whereas Shadowing is a normal skill. Assuming I had equal access to both I think I would take Shadowing ahead of Diving Tackle on any player with MA 6 or more (depending upon my usual mix of opponent(s)).
Where Shadowing stands against the likes of Guard depends entirely on your broader coaching style.
Personally, I think my analysis will cause me to pick Shadowing more often than in the past: exactly how often remains to be seen. |
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