WolfyDan
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Aug 02, 2003 - 01:15 |
 
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I was just interested on how the luck % was worked out. I know no system can be perfect or cover everything, it's just of late I seem to be having a lot of games where things are either going very well, or really terrible, but still the luck is always around the same, or often higher in the worse games.
Thanks for any info! |
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Sinner
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 02, 2003 - 01:25 |
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there have been a lot of threads about this topic... better read them first...
from a guy whos not content with the luck-o-mat(and drunk so don´t pay attantion) but doesn´t have a better algorithm so far.
cheers |
_________________
Sinner
Darkie's Dreams - successfully cherrypicking any race, any coach, any rating, any number of DP since 20/09/2003 ... and still winning! |
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WolfyDan
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 08, 2003 - 10:57 |
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Doh!
Thanks for that 
I have two basic ideas. Both involve altering the weighting of the stats. This is because not all dice are equal, because unlucky dice close together (rerolls, 2db) are especially unlucky, and also because not all turns are equal.
The first is to incorporate rerolls. This can simply be done by multiplying the two chances together before adding it in as a single 'result'.
So, 3+ dodge (4) = 4/6
GFI 2+ (4) = 5/6
GFI 2+ (1) (rr5) = 5/36
This shouldn't be too hard to do.
The second idea is to treat the overall luck of all turns equally. The total luck of the turn can be worked out, and then the average luck of every turn calculated. I think this is simpler than calculating the number of missed actions, as it disregards all perfectly safe moves (standing up, moving in free space). It also takes into account the chance of having horrific luck with the 'safer' moves you do at the start of the turn. Double skull reroll double skull is unlucky, but more unlucky if it is the first roll you make (due to the fewer number of occasions in which it could have happened, ie 4 1's in 4 rolls is worse than 4 1's (even consecutively) in 16 rolls). I think it is also more reflective of the importance of turn overs.
I can see a problem to this in a situations where very few dice rolls are made (like 1 or 2) because of a limited amount of rolls that can be made. For example say all your team are out or stunned apart from one guy who stands up and dodges out. Sure it might seem lucky, but I'm sure a player with just 1 available action is not going to see it that way.
Any ideas on overcoming this? |
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MattiasF
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 08, 2003 - 13:05 |
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Well, I've seen the code used, and it very elaborate. But not perfect.
There are a few factors I would like to have measured.
* Kick-off results. This effects both coaches. Sometimes a blitz can save the game entirly. Then you are really, really lucky... If your opponent gets a Perfect Defence it can really suck, at the wrong time.
* Not all rolls are equally important. Sometimes I do a few one-die blocks at the end of my turn, when I dont have anything else to do. I usally dont even burn a RR if a skull turns up. In other situations a failed one-die is very bad! A dodge to make a TD is more inportant then a lineelf that dodges from LOS.
This is not easy to diagnose, I know. But still, these factors are part of the concept of luck. As far as I know the alorithm does not take any notice of this. I certainly have missed other aspects as well. |
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