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Sinner



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 03, 2003 - 03:12 Reply with quote Back to top

well said.

take your fate as a man (woman) and live with it!!!

may the RIP be with you

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Darkie's Dreams - successfully cherrypicking any race, any coach, any rating, any number of DP since 20/09/2003 ... and still winning!
Mully



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 03, 2003 - 04:20 Reply with quote Back to top

Maniac - please let me know how I can cut my risk when all I need to peform an act is a die roll other than 1 with 2 dice. Is there a feature I don't kow about where we can roll a 10 or 12 sided die? I'd galdly choose those odds if possible.

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Mr-Klipp



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 03, 2003 - 05:29 Reply with quote Back to top

Easy. You set up your players properly so you don't have to make so many rolls to begin with. Anything but a one on a roll with a reroll is still a 1/36 chance of failure. You need to set up your players so as to not need to make so many dodges, be in position so you don't need to go for it all the time, ect.

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Mully



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 03, 2003 - 06:05 Reply with quote Back to top

ahhhh ... I'll make sure I tell my opponent not to put his players next to mine then. That should allow me to avoid the whole dodging issue. Man ... I'd have a much better record if I had known this before.

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BloodRunners



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 03, 2003 - 07:01 Reply with quote Back to top

mully wrote
Quote:

It's been discussed before because no-one can remember having rolled dice coming up with as many "random" 1-1s. A while back I suggested and end of game stat that should the % of 1-2-3-4-5-6 rolled during the game for each player. Just to see if the computer rolls ARE random.


This feature would be interesting to see, but I doubt it would fix this complaining problem. Because the numbers ARE random. In fact, the propability of rolling 600 dice and getting a perfect distribution of rolls is about 2.5E-7, thats .00000025. So I doubt any of us would ever see exactly what most statistical laypeople would expect to see every time. Now it is just my opinion, but it is exactly those statistical lay people who are complaining about the randomness. (I hope noone takes offense at that, I mean no insult by the lable of "statistical lay person".) So a feature like this, would only give these people more amunition to complain with.
Mr-Klipp



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 03, 2003 - 08:39 Reply with quote Back to top

Mully wrote:
ahhhh ... I'll make sure I tell my opponent not to put his players next to mine then. That should allow me to avoid the whole dodging issue. Man ... I'd have a much better record if I had known this before.


Well, if you can't figure out that what you do with your players has as much if not more impact on this than what your opponent does with his, then I'm sure your record could use the help.
Revener



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 03, 2003 - 08:59 Reply with quote Back to top

Still sometimes you have those ridicolus halves where you roll skulls on the first block in every turn, doubles all of them and RR's don't help. Tell what can you do in a game like that? Smile especially when your opponent succeds with like 6+ block every turn and all dodge/pass e.t.c . That's way worse badluck than I have ever had IRL.
Revener



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 05, 2003 - 19:51 Reply with quote Back to top

One thing I really hate is that the dice seems to throw a silly amount of double ones (and db6'es) compared to a real dice. Other than that it is ok
Logan



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 05, 2003 - 20:17 Reply with quote Back to top

God may not play dice, but if that is true then he doesn't play Bloodbowl and he is missing out Laughing
Quote:

In fact, the probability of rolling 600 dice and getting a perfect distribution of rolls is about 2.5E-7, thats .00000025

Well said, dice (real and java) are random. It's luck of the draw the odds of me rolling any particular comibination of dice are the same. Some days you roll all 1's and another day you can't help but roll 6's all I can say is if you play long enough, the dice rolls will tend to even out. Computers do not have it in for people, progamming hasn't got that good yet - but give it time Wink
So at the moment it is just a patch of bad luck, play on and look at the bright side at least it can only get better. Also it is a golden chance to practise with your back to the wall and in the long term that can only be good as those who climb the biggest mountains wind up fittest.

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Mully



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 05, 2003 - 22:53 Reply with quote Back to top

Logan - now now - there's no sense in bringing logic into this duscussion. This thread id for the irrational who KNOW the dice are always coming up 1-1. (me included)

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Lord-Willi



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 06, 2003 - 00:55 Reply with quote Back to top

Sorry, but i have to agree too. An average Game consists of about 600 Dice Rolls, including all Rolls you might be interested in.
The classic double one's chance is 1 to 36, so it will happen quite often, about 15 Times a Game.
What i complain about is that the Reroll so often shows the same Result, that there has to be something.... eventually a bug or any other mishap.
The triple one chance is 1 to 216, maybe thrice a Game, but a Double Skull Reroll is 1 to 1296, that would just happen every second Game, but no it does definetly....
To assure, i am not whining, but needing three turns with an Elf Team to pick up and Pass a ball, all on 2+ thus failing gfi's maybe 10 Times per Game makes me sick, as my Starplayer Rolls do, i got 2 Times the quadruple 1 which brought me an aging on first try an a trait on the other hand, nearly every Roll starts with two dice showing the same number, then the others showing different ones (blablabla)
no more talking, the odd's are not represented by the Dice thats the Point.
Sinner



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 06, 2003 - 01:06 Reply with quote Back to top

just one thing to add, have you counted your games where you _didnīt_ reroll a double one into a double one?

donīt think so. I hadnīt had it about my last 20 to 30 games... but yes it has happened to me... a lot, more often than i want.

So quit whining, please. Javaīs numbers ARE random. This has been covered before. It just happens.

Cheers

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Sinner
Darkie's Dreams - successfully cherrypicking any race, any coach, any rating, any number of DP since 20/09/2003 ... and still winning!
Mr-Klipp



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 06, 2003 - 01:09 Reply with quote Back to top

Dude. The odds most certainly do match what you see. Do you see a double skulls rerolled to doubles skulls every game? Of course not. Probably not even every other game. What does happen, however, is that you remember every time it comes up and forget the hundreds of times it didn't. It's the same with the double ones. There is a one in 36 chance every time you go to make an action that you will fail it with a one and then reroll a one. That's really not that uncommon. However, it's generaly such a pain in the ass when it happens that you remember it. It is basic human pschology, you remember extrodinary events and forget common ones. You forget the hundreds upon hundreds of times your rerolls turn out succesfull and focus on the few dozen times they don't.

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freak_in_a_frock



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 06, 2003 - 01:29 Reply with quote Back to top

Please remember that in 1 of 6 times that you roll a 1 you will reroll that dice and also get a 1. With an elf team most of the time it is a 2+ roll that you are needing, so on average you will fail every 6th thing you do, excluding turns where everything goes right (we forget those quickly don't we) an elven team can expect about 3 of their turns to end on a double 1 during a game.

I have had appalling games, one of which i failed to score a single ssp, my mvp died, i got no money and my FF went down, also having 3 players die on me and 2 more get serious injuries, with my apoth failing on my favourite player, but you will never see me complain about bad luck, because i had games where everything goes right.
psikobunny



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 06, 2003 - 03:51 Reply with quote Back to top

The people who blame the number generator need to do some studying on basic psychology:

http://www.age-of-the-sage.org/psychology/hastorf_cantril_saw_game.html
http://symptomresearch.nih.gov/chapter_4/sec9/chas9pg1.htm

You don't need to read all of this, just skim it to get the gist. What you remember isn't necessarily what happened, and when bad stuff happens to you it colors your memory of events.
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