sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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 Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 14:28 |
 
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Now SG effect:
AV assists send off KO injury sum
7 0 11,6% 10,4% 6,9% 17,4%
7 1 16,7% 14,6% 9,7% 24,3%
7 2 19,0% 18,1% 12,0% 30,1%
7 3 23,1% 20,8% 13,9% 34,7%
7 4 24,5% 22,9% 15,3% 38,2%
7 5 27,8% 24,3% 16,2% 40,5%
7 6 28,2% 25,0% 16,7% 41,7%
7 7 28,2% 25,0% 16,7% 41,7%
8 0 9,3% 6,9% 4,6% 11,6%
8 1 11,6% 10,4% 6,9% 17,4%
8 2 16,7% 14,6% 9,7% 24,3%
8 3 19,0% 18,1% 12,0% 30,1%
8 4 23,1% 20,8% 13,9% 34,7%
8 5 24,5% 22,9% 15,3% 38,2%
8 6 27,8% 24,3% 16,2% 40,5%
8 7 28,2% 25,0% 16,7% 41,7%
9 0 5,1% 4,2% 2,8% 6,9%
9 1 9,3% 6,9% 4,6% 11,6%
9 2 11,6% 10,4% 6,9% 17,4%
9 3 16,7% 14,6% 9,7% 24,3%
9 4 19,0% 18,1% 12,0% 30,1%
9 5 23,1% 20,8% 13,9% 34,7%
9 6 24,5% 22,9% 15,3% 38,2%
9 7 27,8% 24,3% 16,2% 40,5%
10 0 3,7% 2,1% 1,4% 3,5%
10 1 5,1% 4,2% 2,8% 6,9%
10 2 9,3% 6,9% 4,6% 11,6%
10 3 11,6% 10,4% 6,9% 17,4%
10 4 16,7% 14,6% 9,7% 24,3%
10 5 19,0% 18,1% 12,0% 30,1%
10 6 23,1% 20,8% 13,9% 34,7%
10 7 24,5% 22,9% 15,3% 38,2% |
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Tophat
Joined: Jun 01, 2006
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| Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 14:33 |
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It would probably be easier if you just used adjusted av rather than calcing individual situations
av1 =av7 with 6 assists
so just do a
av1 31,0% 25,0% 16,7% 41,7%
av2 30,6% 24,3% 16,2% 40,5%
av3 30,1% 22,9% 15,3% 38,2%
av4 28,7% 20,8% 13,9% 34,7%
av5 27,3% 18,1% 12,0% 30,1%
av6 25,0% 14,6% 9,7% 24,3%
av7 22,7% 10,4% 6,9% 17,4%
av8 20,4% 6,9% 4,6% 11,6%
av9 19,0% 4,2% 2,8% 6,9%
av10 17,6% 2,1% 1,4% 3,5% |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 14:43 |
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DP without SG:
AV assists send off KO injury sum
7 0 25,0% 16,2% 13,9% 30,1%
7 1 27,3% 22,0% 19,0% 41,0%
7 2 29,6% 25,5% 22,4% 47,9%
7 3 30,1% 28,2% 25,0% 53,2%
7 4 31,5% 30,1% 26,9% 56,9%
7 5 31,0% 31,1% 27,9% 59,0%
7 6 31,5% 31,3% 28,2% 59,5%
7 7 31,5% 31,3% 28,2% 59,5%
8 0 21,8% 11,3% 9,6% 20,8%
8 1 25,0% 16,2% 13,9% 30,1%
8 2 27,3% 22,0% 19,0% 41,0%
8 3 29,6% 25,5% 22,4% 47,9%
8 4 30,1% 28,2% 25,0% 53,2%
8 5 31,5% 30,1% 26,9% 56,9%
8 6 31,0% 31,1% 27,9% 59,0%
8 7 31,5% 31,3% 28,2% 59,5%
9 0 20,4% 7,2% 6,0% 13,2%
9 1 21,8% 11,3% 9,6% 20,8%
9 2 25,0% 16,2% 13,9% 30,1%
9 3 27,3% 22,0% 19,0% 41,0%
9 4 29,6% 25,5% 22,4% 47,9%
9 5 30,1% 28,2% 25,0% 53,2%
9 6 31,5% 30,1% 26,9% 56,9%
9 7 31,0% 31,1% 27,9% 59,0%
10 0 18,1% 3,9% 3,2% 7,2%
10 1 20,4% 7,2% 6,0% 13,2%
10 2 21,8% 11,3% 9,6% 20,8%
10 3 25,0% 16,2% 13,9% 30,1%
10 4 27,3% 22,0% 19,0% 41,0%
10 5 29,6% 25,5% 22,4% 47,9%
10 6 30,1% 28,2% 25,0% 53,2%
10 7 31,5% 30,1% 26,9% 56,9% |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 14:46 |
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| Tophat wrote: | It would probably be easier if you just used adjusted av rather than calcing individual situations
av1 =av7 with 6 assists |
yeah maybe but since I made all this (and I must verify my algorithms that are getting harder with DP) |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 14:50 |
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SG and DP:
AV assists send off KO injury sum
7 0 16,2% 16,2% 13,9% 30,1%
7 1 21,8% 22,0% 19,0% 41,0%
7 2 23,6% 25,5% 22,4% 47,9%
7 3 27,3% 28,2% 25,0% 53,2%
7 4 28,2% 30,1% 26,9% 56,9%
7 5 31,0% 31,1% 27,9% 59,0%
7 6 31,0% 31,3% 28,2% 59,5%
7 7 31,0% 31,3% 28,2% 59,5%
8 0 13,4% 11,3% 9,6% 20,8%
8 1 16,2% 16,2% 13,9% 30,1%
8 2 21,8% 22,0% 19,0% 41,0%
8 3 23,6% 25,5% 22,4% 47,9%
8 4 27,3% 28,2% 25,0% 53,2%
8 5 28,2% 30,1% 26,9% 56,9%
8 6 31,0% 31,1% 27,9% 59,0%
8 7 31,0% 31,3% 28,2% 59,5%
9 0 8,8% 7,2% 6,0% 13,2%
9 1 13,4% 11,3% 9,6% 20,8%
9 2 16,2% 16,2% 13,9% 30,1%
9 3 21,8% 22,0% 19,0% 41,0%
9 4 23,6% 25,5% 22,4% 47,9%
9 5 27,3% 28,2% 25,0% 53,2%
9 6 28,2% 30,1% 26,9% 56,9%
9 7 31,0% 31,1% 27,9% 59,0%
10 0 6,9% 3,9% 3,2% 7,2%
10 1 8,8% 7,2% 6,0% 13,2%
10 2 13,4% 11,3% 9,6% 20,8%
10 3 16,2% 16,2% 13,9% 30,1%
10 4 21,8% 22,0% 19,0% 41,0%
10 5 23,6% 25,5% 22,4% 47,9%
10 6 27,3% 28,2% 25,0% 53,2%
10 7 28,2% 30,1% 26,9% 56,9% |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 14:57 |
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and now just a summary about wise fouling (3 assists) vs AV8
ejection.....KO............injury.......sum off pitch
No skill
27,3%...... 18,1%...... 12,0%.......30,1%
SG
19,0%...... 18,1%.......12,0%...... 30,1%
DP
29,6%...... 25,5%...... 22,4%...... 47,9%
SG+DP
23,6%.......25,5%...... 22,4%...... 47,9% |
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Plorg
Joined: May 08, 2005
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| Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 15:02 |
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Looking for the breakpoints of where (%offpitch > %sendoff),
this is what these tables tell Plorg:
No DP no SG:
Take the target AV and subtract 5. This is the number of assists you need before the foul is worthwhile.
DP without SG:
Take the target AV and subtract 7. This is the number of assists you need before the foul is worthwhile.
SG with or without DP:
Foul every turn with or without assists. |
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xcver
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
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| Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 15:21 |
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| Plorg wrote: | SG with or without DP:
Foul every turn with or without assists. |
well only if you count the offpitch% (i.e. KO or injury). Me myself don't always want to trade sent off for a mere KO, especially not on the first drive a game. Later on it's fine but early on trading a fouler for a KO can be a huge mistake. |
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SnakeSanders
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 15:40 |
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arent LRB4 DP fouls 3 times as effective? |
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Mr_Launcher
Joined: Dec 27, 2003
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| Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 15:44 |
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| xcver wrote: | | well only if you count the offpitch% (i.e. KO or injury). Me myself don't always want to trade sent off for a mere KO, especially not on the first drive a game. |
So just use the cas column instead of the offpitch column, then. |
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Plorg
Joined: May 08, 2005
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| Posted:
Jul 18, 2006 - 17:00 |
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| xcver wrote: | | well only if you count the offpitch% (i.e. KO or injury). Me myself don't always want to trade sent off for a mere KO, especially not on the first drive a game. Later on it's fine but early on trading a fouler for a KO can be a huge mistake. |
If you are holding out for a casualty, then you should never foul.
Odds of sendoff are always higher than odds of pure casualty in every table.
Also, early in the game is the *best* time to be fouling from an investment/return viewpoint. |
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GalakStarscraper
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Jul 19, 2006 - 21:30 |
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| Plorg wrote: | If you are holding out for a casualty, then you should never foul.
Odds of sendoff are always higher than odds of pure casualty in every table. |
I would like to point out that this is not true in LRB 4.0.
In LRB 4.0 if you have the ability to argue the call and the eye is not on you and you have a Dirty Player.
Then fouling against AV 7 (ie AV 8 with no assists due to the plus one or AV 9 with one assist for example) yields a higher CAS % vs the 13.9% risk of ejection.
Fouling against anything under AV 7 yields a significantly higher CAS rate than ejection rate of 13.9% ((1/6)*(5/6)).
So your comments Plorg are one sign of where the new fouling rules tried to go ... even with a Dirty Player/Sneaky Git ... no foul has a higher CAS % than ejection % whereas with LRB 4.0 ... the first foul of the game with a Dirty Player is almost guaranteed to have a higher CAS % than ejection %.
Galak |
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keggiemckill
Joined: Oct 07, 2004
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| Posted:
Jul 19, 2006 - 21:42 |
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I dont know about odds, but in our Table top league we are using LRB 5.0. I dont foul much, but in the last 3 games Ive tried to foul once in each game, and have been caught 3/3 times. Ill be trying for one more games, since Our League is nearly over. Damn Murphy and his Law. Nuffle sick him! |
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