| Poll |
| shall vanguard go back to school ? |
| yes its really to easy |
|
28% |
[ 20 ] |
| omg my 5 year old child knows the answer |
|
22% |
[ 16 ] |
| the answer is ... hmpf dont play so much blood bowl you confuse me |
|
14% |
[ 10 ] |
| i know the answer but i dont like to share wisdom |
|
34% |
[ 24 ] |
|
| Total Votes : 70 |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
|
 Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 18:12 |
 
|
| Vanguard wrote: | | a player 9 foul has a 27% chance to make a cas ... |
Well, in the first place we should all have realised in the first place that you can only fit 8 players round the foulee … 
27% (28%, more accurately) is the LRB 5 chance of a CAS.
41% (42%, more accurately) is the LRB 4 chance of a CAS.
So you're both right, just referring to different things. |
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|
Vanguard
Joined: Nov 01, 2003
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| Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 18:48 |
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you seem to hate me ... even if we agree you complain about something ^^ |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 20:12 |
|
Me?
No, I just like a good argument.
Anyway, I don't know what your opinion is in this case. Let me know, and then I'll disagree with you. |
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|
Fama
Joined: Feb 09, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 21:07 |
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| Vanguard wrote: | | you seem to hate me ... even if we agree you complain about something ^^ |
How'd you end up thinking that? Your poll said so?
...just look at the bloody poll options...  |
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SnakeSanders
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 21:10 |
|
OK... this is just for breaking AV... hope this is all right...
| Code: |
Break AV
7 8 9 10
41.67% 27.78% 16.67% 8.33% No Skills
58.33% 41.67% 27.78% 16.67% Mighty Blow
41.67% 41.67% 41.67% 41.67% Claw
58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% Claw + Mighty Blow
65.97% 47.84% 30.56% 15.97% Piling On
82.64% 65.97% 47.84% 30.56% Piling On + Mighty Blow
65.97% 65.97% 65.97% 65.97% Piling On + Claw
82.64% 82.64% 82.64% 82.64% Piling On + Mighty Blow + Claw
Casualty Rates
7 8 9 10
6.94% 4.63% 2.78% 1.39% No Skills
14.35% 10.03% 6.48% 3.70% Mighty Blow
6.94% 6.94% 6.94% 6.94% Claw
14.35% 14.35% 14.35% 14.35% Claw + Mighty Blow
16.78% 11.83% 7.41% 3.82% Piling On
16.78% 16.78% 16.78% 16.78% Piling On + Claw
31.18% 23.38% 16.05% 9.62% Piling On + Mighty Blow
31.18% 31.18% 31.18% 31.18% Claw + Piling On + Mighty Blow
|
I cant work out the odds for Piling On... I used pacs calculations for the last one... but I cant do the rest... im too tired  If some kind soul wants to help!  |
Last edited by SnakeSanders on %b %19, %2006 - %12:%Dec; edited 5 times in total |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 22:15 |
|
Chance of getting a CAS on a knock-down with MB vs AV 7:
Three ways of doing this:
1) No need for MB;
2) Use MB on armour;
3) Use MB on injury.
Route 1: 15/36 (to break AV 7) * 1/6 (to get a CAS) = 15/216 = 6.9%
Route 2: 1/6 (chance of needing MB to break AV 7) * 1/6 = 1/36 = 2.8%
Route 3: 15/36 * 4/36 (chance of needing MB to get a CAS) = 60/1296 = 4.6%
Total = 6.9 + 2.8 + 4.6 = 14.3% (but there are probably some rounding errors in there)
Following a similar pattern should produce numbers for all the other combinations. It's the long way of doing things, but it makes it clear how you got there.
(Disclaimer: Treat all of pac's calculations with caution pending verification, probably by sk8bcn.) |
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|
nin
Joined: May 27, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 22:27 |
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| Emphasy wrote: | | All this sounds good, but since the random dice generator sucks here you cant really count on math etc as you know you'll get F-ed over when trying to do so:) |
Not sure of that 
| Vanguard wrote: | second event: armor roll 7, so mighty blow use
1/6*1/6+1/6*1/6 = 5.56 %
|
this is 1/6*1/6+1/6*1/6*(1-(1/6*1/6)) injury prob 1st roll+ injury prob 2nd roll (when needed)
and more mistakes may be there somewhere, but I'm a bit tired
edited to correct the cuotes |
Last edited by nin on %b %18, %2006 - %22:%Dec; edited 1 time in total |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 22:31 |
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Okay, I've been asked to do Claw/MB/PO too. In this case, AV doesn't matter … I'll use a slightly different method this time. I will assume (entirely unrealistically) that PO is <i>always</i> used - to break armour, and to re-roll 'mere' KOs.
First we work out the chance of needing to use one or more skills to break armour.
1) Armour broken with no skill use.
2) MB (only) used to break armour (7 rolled first time).
3) PO (only) used to break armour (2-6 rolled, then 8-12).
4) MB and PO used to break armour (2-6 rolled, then 7).
[5) Armour not broken (2-6 rolled twice).]
1) 15/36 = 42%
2) 1/6 = 17%
3) 15/36 * 15/36 = 17%
4) 15/36 * 1/6 = 7%
[5) 15/36 * 15/36 = 17%]
So that's an 83% chance of breaking armour in total. ( ) And that agrees with brownrob's 82.64% figure above.
Now, in each case (depending on which skills have been used) we have a different chance of a CAS (rounding errors will be creeping in here):
1) (10/36 + (26/36 * 10/36)) * 0.42 = 20.1%
2) (1/6 + (5/6 * 1/6)) * 0.17 = 5.2%
3) 10/36 * 0.17 = 4.7%
4) 1/6 * 0.07 = 1.2%
[In each case here, I'm taking the chance of getting a CAS (given the skills that have already been used) and multiplying it by the chance of getting to this stage in the first place, from above.]
And that adds up to a total of 31.2%! I must have got something right!
(Or maybe I'm just lucky.)
Anyway, if my working is not clear, ask and I will clarify. |
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Last edited by pac on %b %18, %2006 - %22:%Dec; edited 1 time in total |
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Meech
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 22:32 |
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| nin wrote: |
and more mistakes may be there somewhere, but I'm a bit tired |
Yeah, like the last line of your sig... what a mistake! |
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nin
Joined: May 27, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 22:44 |
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| Meech wrote: | | nin wrote: |
and more mistakes may be there somewhere, but I'm a bit tired |
Yeah, like the last line of your sig... what a mistake! |
<a href="http://fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphpBB2&file=viewtopic&t=6180&highlight=recipe">mistake portrait</a>
everibody has a past |
Last edited by nin on %b %18, %2006 - %22:%Dec; edited 4 times in total |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 22:48 |
|
I think this is what you're after. |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 19, 2006 - 00:11 |
|
Piling On only odds, for brownrob (usual assumption. Think they're right):
vs AV 7: 16.78%
vs AV 8: 11.83%
vs AV 9: 7.41%
vs AV 10: 3.82%
Edit:
And for PO+MB:
vs AV 8: 23.38%
vs AV 9: 16.05%
vs AV 10: 9.62%
/me thinks is right, but is tired
Edit: Also, the numbers for MB-only (CAS) in rob's table appear to be wrong … Will add those …
Revised numbers for MB-only:
vs AV 7: 14.35%
vs AV 8: 10.03%
vs AV 9: 6.48%
vs AV 10: 3.70%
I think. Will check the lot tomorrow. |
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SnakeSanders
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Dec 20, 2006 - 17:57 |
|
| brownrob wrote: | OK... this is just for breaking AV... hope this is all right...
| Code: |
Break AV
7 8 9 10
41.67% 27.78% 16.67% 8.33% No Skills
58.33% 41.67% 27.78% 16.67% Mighty Blow
41.67% 41.67% 41.67% 41.67% Claw
58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% Claw + Mighty Blow
65.97% 47.84% 30.56% 15.97% Piling On
82.64% 65.97% 47.84% 30.56% Piling On + Mighty Blow
65.97% 65.97% 65.97% 65.97% Piling On + Claw
82.64% 82.64% 82.64% 82.64% Piling On + Mighty Blow + Claw
Casualty Rates
7 8 9 10
6.94% 4.63% 2.78% 1.39% No Skills
14.35% 10.03% 6.48% 3.70% Mighty Blow
6.94% 6.94% 6.94% 6.94% Claw
14.35% 14.35% 14.35% 14.35% Claw + Mighty Blow
16.78% 11.83% 7.41% 3.82% Piling On
16.78% 16.78% 16.78% 16.78% Piling On + Claw
31.18% 23.38% 16.05% 9.62% Piling On + Mighty Blow
31.18% 31.18% 31.18% 31.18% Claw + Piling On + Mighty Blow
|
Thanks to pac fpr some of the values! |
So, this makes PO a little better than MB in as far as success is measured, but MB doesnt have any drawbacks, or counters, it leaves me considering that is the 2& extra chance for a cas (hence spp for your longbeard), worth taking first over Mighty Blow.
For a real life example, Im playing a skaven team with my Dwarves. Ive just drawn a card that allows me to take a regular skill on a player for the duration of the game. Ive decided my longbeards need a boost so Ill give them either MB or PO... the question is, is the extra % worth it, for the sacrifice in position, not forgetting he will be on the ground more (only when it proves to be useful, eg stuns will always be PO!)
So whats the optimum order for a claw/mb/PO player? Taking it into account? |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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| Posted:
Dec 20, 2006 - 18:04 |
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| brownrob wrote: | | So whats the optimum order for a claw/mb/PO player? Taking it into account? |
MB first, because it is only very slightly poorer than PO on a single occasion, and (as you say) has no counters or costs to using it.
Then (if you can get it) Claw, I would say, because a can opener will have at least some use against virtually all teams (only 'zons, I think, have no players with AV greater than 7, and even they could get AV+), and again it has no counters or costs.
And Piling On to wrap it up!
Of course, if you can only get Claw on doubles, you need to add it whenever you get the chance. |
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|
tautology
Joined: Jan 30, 2004
|
| Posted:
Dec 20, 2006 - 18:13 |
|
f0rd wrote:
| Quote: |
claw + mighty blow + pilling on : 21/36 * (15/36*10/36+1/6*1/6 ) + 15/36 * (1-(26/36*26/36)) could be right
|
Actually, BloodBowl math is far more complicated than this.
It actually works in a seemingly paradoxical fashion with a scaling factor based upon the perspective of the calculating entity, somewhat similar to relativistic physics.
The correct formula is as follows:
claw + mighty blow + pilling on 21/36 * (15/36*10/36+1/6*1/6 ) + 15/36 * (1-(26/36*26/36)))*B
where B is the BloodBowl Factor.
player=player being blocked
*IF you are the receiver of the block*
B=((Number of skill advances on player+number of stat increases on player + number of footballs carried by player)/(number of blocking dice rolled in order to bring player down + number of permanent injuries on player)) + number of times you have used apoth this game
*IF you are making the block*
B=1 / (((Number of skill advances on player+number of stat increases on player + number of footballs carried by player)/(number of blocking dice rolled in order to bring player down + number of permanent injuries on player)) + number of times opponent has used apoth this game)
At least that's how it always calculates for me...
The lesson here? Beware those 1 die blocks on +St + AG mighty blow, tackle Wardancers! |
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