Dominik
Joined: Oct 29, 2004
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 Posted:
Mar 14, 2008 - 03:21 |
 
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My Undead once scored (1st half, Turn 8 ) that unlikely, which I think has never been done before on FUMBBL.
My Wight (6338 - Block, Strip Ball, Tackle) dodged into a fortified cage, blitzed the ball carrier (Ghoul, Dodge Sure Hands), picked up the ball and broke himself free to scoring zone using 2 GFI's. He had 1 reroll for it.
Odds for success? Far beyond 0,001% I guess.
Cage was like this (B = Ball carrier)
x_x
xB
x_x
Wight came from the upper two x's.
Ok, here's the calculation:
1/6*3/6* (then it gets difficult as ball bouncing has to be calculated in, only the right side delivers continued success probability, then 2 of the 3 targets on the right side could catch the ball, or the ball could bounce again or the Wight could catch it himself... then it has to be calculated, which re-bouncings (if not catched) are the only ones for success contuniation, I chose:) 1/6*2/6*2/6*5/6*3/6*5/6*4/6 = 0,03572245084590763603109282121627 %
The probability increases a bit because of the 1 Reroll available. I didn't count that in (don't know how to  ).
If somebody saw a very unlikely touchdown, post it here and calculate, who's the luckier one!  |
Last edited by Dominik on %b %14, %2008 - %13:%Mar; edited 1 time in total |
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Thespian
Joined: Dec 28, 2007
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Mar 14, 2008 - 03:32 |
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I bet your opponent was thrilled! |
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Dominik
Joined: Oct 29, 2004
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Mar 14, 2008 - 03:33 |
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He awaited the turnover at any moment, especially after I used my reroll (6+ was needed) for the first dodge.
What is the moral of the story? Always try, if mathematically possible. Never give up in tournaments! |
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SillySod
Joined: Oct 10, 2006
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Mar 14, 2008 - 03:40 |
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I've done better than that in real life in a tournament
I was down to about 6 fling on the pitch (about turn5 first half), one was dancing with a beast of Nurgle, one was being beaten to death as the remnants of my defence. Four plucky halflings assualt the Nurgle cage, one of which runs in, takes down the pestigor carrying the ball, grabs the ball, runs with it fending off all opposition and scores the only touchdown of the game.
I'm not gonna do odds on that but it was pretty unlikely, especially the way the halfling got blitzed as he ran for the line a few times and went "NO!" and bashed down the helpless nurgle  |
_________________
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"There are those to whom knowledge is a shield. There are those to whom it is a weapon. Neither view is balanced." |
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CorporateSlave3
Joined: Feb 07, 2004
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Mar 14, 2008 - 04:15 |
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While not as unlikely, this is my favorite TD ever, as it includes my AG 2 Rat Ogre catching a bouncing scatter, then passing his WA roll to dodge away from an elf, and complete a pass safely over the head of a wood elf catcher to a waiting gutter runner who ran in the TD. |
_________________
***Did you know? 42.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot? |
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Walks_in_the_Sun
Joined: Apr 16, 2006
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Mar 14, 2008 - 05:06 |
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Snarrl scored a 2-turner the only time he ever held the ball.
Ogre-to-ogre AG 2/AG 2 long bomb passes w/ handoffs to move the ball the entire field for touchdowns, always fun... |
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Synn
Joined: Dec 13, 2004
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Mar 14, 2008 - 05:26 |
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Does the mummy pick up and long pass to the other mummy count?
__Synn |
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Gus
Joined: Sep 16, 2005
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Mar 14, 2008 - 05:44 |
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| Synn wrote: | Does the mummy pick up and long pass to the other mummy count?
__Synn |
Synn...didn´t you lose when someone made that play?
Smackfinal?
:-p |
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OldBugman
Joined: May 05, 2005
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Mar 14, 2008 - 05:45 |
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1 Goblin vs 4 beastmen in the WO. |
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SirAble
Joined: Apr 05, 2007
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Mar 14, 2008 - 06:12 |
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My most unlikely TD vs Texan's Smack Addicts
The winning "drive" was :
Trog (Texan's wight) picks up the ball dodges out and makes a run for it... turn 7 he decided to gfi to make my life harder... and put the game out of reach... except trog dies on the gfi. Pizzamogul (Mummy) still comes up and covers the ball, as does a random ghoul. With no rrs left, the solution is obvious.
step 1: a gfi and a 1db blitz on the ghoul. get a pow, move the ball over, but keep it in pizzamogul's tz
step 2: Pangari (orc blitzer) will then dodge out of pizzamogul's tz come back in, pick up the ball and run it out to make a pass to Poki
step 3: Pangari's pass will not make it to Poki (another blitzer), but will instead bounce strategically to Powha (a third blitzer) who will catch the bouncing ball, and trot it in for the score... after 2 gfi's
Just... plain silly! |
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shadow46x2
Joined: Nov 22, 2003
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Mar 14, 2008 - 07:10 |
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hmmmm...you do realize that every action has a ridiculously absurd chance to succeed...until you actually do it, at which point it has a 100% chance to succeed?
--j |
_________________
| origami wrote: | | There is no god but Nuffle, and Shadow is his prophet. |
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PLATYPUS
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Mar 14, 2008 - 08:07 |
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| Dominik wrote: |
Cage was like this (B = Ball carrier)
x_x
xB
x_x
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The question is, why did the Undead player have a cage deep in his own half with six players involved? |
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Purplegoo
Joined: Mar 23, 2006
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Mar 14, 2008 - 08:15 |
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1 million games and it's never been done before?
Hmm.
Bet it has been surpassed somewhere. |
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Nyberg
Joined: Jun 24, 2005
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Mar 14, 2008 - 08:19 |
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I played a game once where a ogre goblin dodged 5 times, picked up the ball in 2 tz. Then his ogre dodged, picked him up and throwed him to the endzone and scored. That was pretty amazing to me. |
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morehouse
Joined: Sep 29, 2005
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Mar 14, 2008 - 08:41 |
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In this game vs p4m i steal the ball on t7 out of a cage and score on t8. The move is 2+ 2+ 3+ 3+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 2+ 2+ 1d pow perfect scatter 2+ 2+ 2+ 2+ 2+ 4+ 4+ 2+ 2+
Anyone got that beat? |
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