Haunted
Joined: Jan 14, 2008
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 Posted:
Jan 30, 2008 - 06:46 |
 
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http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&id=2047053
So a fling runs up to my newly purchased troll. Rolls a 3db on my troll, I choose. Triple pow. Breaks armor. Serious Injury. Death. Regen fails. I use the apo....
It fails.
Coolest. Thing. Ever. The odds of that happening are by my calculation 1 in 2519424. This will live in infamy. |
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Haunted
Joined: Jan 14, 2008
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| Posted:
Jan 30, 2008 - 06:46 |
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Oh, and I forgot to mention, the very next turn I managed to kill the fling that killed my troll  and HIS apo failed too! so crazy! |
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Dunkpork
Joined: Jan 12, 2005
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| Posted:
Jan 30, 2008 - 06:56 |
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We like it.
*drinks soy milx* |
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Britnoth
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jan 30, 2008 - 06:59 |
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Not quite that low odds.
Triple pow without block - thats powskull, pow! or pow on all 3 dice.
1/2 *3.
armour and injury break, both 10+, so 1 in 6.
1/6 *2
RIP, 1/6, regen fails, 1/2 apo fails, 1/6.
1/6 *1/2 *1/6
I make that as...
1/8 * 1/36 * 1/72 =
or 20,736 to 1. |
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kwèk
Joined: Nov 13, 2005
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| Posted:
Jan 30, 2008 - 07:05 |
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Gratz on the kill
I had a fling that almost did the same thing in 1 of my fling games.
Fling dodges in cage, 3d other guy can choose on a orc thrower, tripple pow, RIP, apo fails.
Oh yeah, he got the ball loose... dont know if i won the game tough :s |
_________________
It is a bit embarrassing to have been concerned with the human problem all one's life and find at the end that one has no more to offer by way of advice than 'try to be a little kinder'.
~Aldous Huxley~ |
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Dunkpork
Joined: Jan 12, 2005
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| Posted:
Jan 30, 2008 - 07:08 |
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Isn't triple pow without block 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3?
Pow
Pow!
Arrow
Arrow
Skull/Pow
Skull
2/6 = 1/3
Chance of all events = 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/27 = 3.7%
If I'm not mistaken. |
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Haunted
Joined: Jan 14, 2008
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Jan 30, 2008 - 07:18 |
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well, yes, but in this case it was triple pow. not both down, not push back, but TRIPLE POW. which makes it 1/6*3. and then you have to roll 11 or 12 which is 3/36, and then a death is 1/36 and then no regen is 1/2, and then no apo is 1/6.
So, you're right, I calculated incorrectly, the true odds are 1,119,743 to one. |
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Dunkpork
Joined: Jan 12, 2005
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Jan 30, 2008 - 07:24 |
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1/6 * 3 = 3/6 = 1/2
1/6 ^ 3 = 1/216 |
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AFK_Eagle
Joined: Mar 12, 2004
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Jan 30, 2008 - 07:25 |
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Anybody remember an old gutter runner named Sai? No? Well before he became famous, when he was still but a rookie, the team was getting mangled by some monster chaos, in particular a str5/claw/rsc/blodge/tackle chaos warrior. Pure killing machine, and doing a pretty good job of it on my team. I was down to 2 or 3 rats, he's not letting up the hitting/fouling, so in frustration I sic my rookie gutter Sai to blitz him.
Triple POW (clean POW, not pow! as his dodge would've negated it), RIP, apo failure.
So began the career path of one of the most famous gutters in all of fumbbl history...and swearing of an opponent which has yet to stop 3 years later...
*****
Triple POW=1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6
x
Armor Break/Cas= 1/6 * 1/6
x
RIP/apo fail= 1/6 * 1/6
________________________
Odds 1 in 6^7=279936
Although over almost 2000 games, I've seen it all... |
_________________
Listen to Eagle! Eagle is good, Eagle is wise!
Founder of the E.L.F.--These elves will play anybody! |
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Britnoth
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Jan 30, 2008 - 07:33 |
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| Haunted wrote: | well, yes, but in this case it was triple pow. not both down, not push back, but TRIPLE POW. which makes it 1/6*3. and then you have to roll 11 or 12 which is 3/36, and then a death is 1/36 and then no regen is 1/2, and then no apo is 1/6.
So, you're right, I calculated incorrectly, the true odds are 1,119,743 to one. |
You didnt say the troll was blodge. If it isnt, then powskull and pushpow! can both knock it over. Wrong. Beating av7 with 6,6 doesnt make the actual armor break any harder, its the same as 4,4.
11 or 12? er no, unless your troll is av10... wrong again.
1/36 rip? As long as youre adding the injury and casualty rolls together.
regen is 1/2 and apo is 1/6, well done! 
So yes, over 1 million to 1.. if it was blodge av10 not a rookie  |
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Britnoth
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Jan 30, 2008 - 07:34 |
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| Dunkpork wrote: | 1/6 * 3 = 3/6 = 1/2
1/6 ^ 3 = 1/216 |
 |
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gregory_n_white
Joined: Jan 05, 2006
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| Posted:
Jan 30, 2008 - 07:35 |
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The fling is impressive.... but the Sai story is cooler just because of the number of skills the victim had.
AFK Eagle - any link to replay? Id love to watch that and check out the players. |
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Dunkpork
Joined: Jan 12, 2005
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| Posted:
Jan 30, 2008 - 07:54 |
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| Britnoth wrote: | | Dunkpork wrote: | 1/6 * 3 = 3/6 = 1/2
1/6 ^ 3 = 1/216 |
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If I wrote down all the math I failed in high school... well, I'd have nothing, cause I can't remember any of it =p |
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BiggieB
Joined: Feb 19, 2005
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Jan 30, 2008 - 08:12 |
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am I the only one bothered that he played a rookie fling team 35 st down? |
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Haunted
Joined: Jan 14, 2008
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Jan 30, 2008 - 08:24 |
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That fling team challenged me in general irc chat. While I only had 10 men. And if you knew anything, you'd know that fling teams are deceptively strong for their ts's. Also, I'd appreciate it if you kept the flaming out of this thread. Thank you.
Also, the theme of the team is to take out Big Guys. Flings have two, therefor, I cannot in good conscience refuse their challenge. |
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