Christer
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Surre wrote: | | the case of dubbelskull-RR-dubbelskull would happen every 14:th match or so. |
.. Not to mention the over 400 games being played every day... Assuming your calculations are correct (I didn't bother to double check), this would happen on average 29 times per day or slightly more than once per hour. Not particularly strange that you hear about it now and again...
-- Christer |
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Rampage76
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Oct 28, 2003 - 12:59 |
 
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Hmm..don´t know about that browwnrob.
To me it seems like it´s the coaches that try to do the safest things first(doble-dice blocks etc.) are the ones complaining.
The coaches that do a lot of risky moves know that it can back-fire on them, hte ones who go safety first generally get really frustrated when a "sure thing" doesn´t work. |
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Rampage76
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 28, 2003 - 13:58 |
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Just finished flipping a coin 100 times..the result:
62 tails
38 heads |
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Moekel
Joined: Sep 04, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 28, 2003 - 13:59 |
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lol... somebody has too much time... |
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psikobunny
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 28, 2003 - 14:19 |
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Last night I had a lone wardancer lying prone in front of the 3 Necros that had taken the ball from him. The werewolf was laughing at him, so he got up hit the guy (assists? who needs 'em?) and before the other two could sandwich him, he leapt over the body of the stinking puppy and snagged the ball. This is the sort of thing my personal selective perception remembers, instead of all the crap that led to the game being a tie instead of a win for me.
Stop choking on your bile when what you feel should happen doesn't. The universe doesn't work that way. Take joy in the things that go your way and choose to remember those moments instead of the bad ones. |
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Surre
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 28, 2003 - 15:04 |
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| Rampage76 wrote: | Just finished flipping a coin 100 times..the result:
62 tails
38 heads |
Must be something wrong with that coin.  |
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SubSonic
Joined: Aug 22, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 28, 2003 - 15:06 |
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| Rampage76 wrote: | Just finished flipping a coin 100 times..the result:
62 tails
38 heads |
That is quite big difference from the average. 0,45% chance for that to happen. But apparently possible 
But if you do it again, you will most probably get quite different results... |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 28, 2003 - 16:48 |
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| SubSonic wrote: | | ...But if you do it again, you will most probably get quite different results... |
Hence the whole RANDOM part.
Seriously, folks. Isn't it time to drop this thread yet? The definition of random is (according to the American Heritage Dictionary, at least) "1. Having no specific pattern, purpose, or objective. 2. (Mathematics and Statistics) Of or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution."
Enough people are chiming in with enough different results that I think it's safe to say that the random rolls in JBB have no specific patter, purpose, or objective. The client does not want the host, the client, any specific race or any specific coach to win. Therefore it has no objective. It has no purpose or easily discernable pattern either. The more results you take into account, the closer it comes to the exact average distribution of 50/50 on coin tosses and 1/6 on skull blocks or elven dodges. That's what random means.
It's bloody well random enough. Let it go and take responsibility for your own coaching and misfortune, already.
Ok?
| subsonic wrote: | | That is quite big difference from the average. 0,45% chance for that to happen. But apparently possible |
Really want to make your head spin? The odds of getting tails on that 101st coin flip were 50%. And of course it is possible. It's possible to throw 100 Tails in a row. Unlikely, yes, but possible by the very definition of random. |
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RIPNE1
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 28, 2003 - 22:34 |
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| Fudge_it wrote: | mathemathichly redicoulus, like in some games when one rolls more then 2 doulbe skulls with rerolls directly after( this should happen every 1296 th time, to get a double skull and reroll double skull) but this happens alot more often .
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actually... 1 out of every 36 times you re-roll a double skull result you will roll another double skull result... this seems about right...
your viewpoint is skewed because you do not re-roll every block dice roll... in fact, most people, only re-roll unfavourable ones skull, skull or skull, skull pow or skull pow, skull pow. |
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Aequitas
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 30, 2003 - 11:30 |
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Klipp : I understand your point, but you seem to be pressuring me to concede you're right. Maybe you are, but understand that I do take note when I lose a toss, because it doesn't happen that often. Maybe Surre is dead on, that I'm just one of the few this happens to. But I don't see why you feel the need to throw psychology in my face. |
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The goggles, they do nothing! o_0 |
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Mully
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 30, 2003 - 15:05 |
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Ripne - actually the chanceof rolling 1 set of double skulls is 1 in 36 (2.8%).
The chance of rolling 4 consecutive skulls is 0.08% or 1 in every 1,296 rolls |
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cataphract
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 30, 2003 - 16:20 |
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| Mully wrote: | Ripne - actually the chanceof rolling 1 set of double skulls is 1 in 36 (2.8%).
The chance of rolling 4 consecutive skulls is 0.08% or 1 in every 1,296 rolls |
yes it is... however the case in point is NOT the possibility of rolling 4 consecutive skulls.
It is the possibilty of rolling double skulls having already rolled double skulls.
or continually rolling 2 dice until you get double skulls and then subsequently rolling a second set of double skulls. Since the first event (rolling the first 2 skulls) implies infinite repititions we then consider the probability of this event to be definite. ie. if you roll enough two dice blocks eventually you'll roll a double skull. Therefore the probability of theis event is definent since this event involves infinite repetitions. event 2 is the probability of rolling double skulls immidiatly after the first event, ie. a single dice roll no repititions. probability equals favourable outcomes/ total outcomes= 1/36.
Therefore the probability of the situation
"If I reroll a double skulls and get double skulls again"
is
probability of event 1 x probability of event 2
1x 1/36
=1/36
However for situations like
"what is the probability of my next dice roll being a double skulls and the following dice roll to be a double skulls"
"what is the probability of rolling four skulls on a single toss of the dice"
p1 xp2
1/36 x1/36
1/1,296 |
_________________
"the eunuch should not take pride in its chastity" |
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SnakeSanders
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 30, 2003 - 16:49 |
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someone please lock this topic... if you think that the dice rolls arent random then write your own client with "random" rolls... People should just accept the great work done for them (which i might add is free) and stop whining about it...
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Mr-Klipp
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 31, 2003 - 00:49 |
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| Aequitas wrote: | | I don't see why you feel the need to throw psychology in my face. |
Because that is what is at issue. I'm not saying you are nuts, it's a standard part of how human perception works, it is part of the reason why eye witnesses are in reality very unreliable, and it is at the heart of why people believe astrology and psychics. When we see something, we are more likely to remember it when it fits into our beliefs of how it should be, and are even willing to subconciously alter the memory to better make it fit with what we expected. It is nothing personal about you, just something about perception. |
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