Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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 Posted:
Nov 05, 2013 - 00:58 |
 
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| Quote: | | The draw for round 5 is not made yet... there are no guarantees... |
Actually, (unless I'm badly confused about the process we're using), yes, there are. Chainsaw and FredA have it right - because it's not a "draw", it's a flowchart - purely "if/then" logic and 100% predictable.
Or at least it should be - there is no "random" factor in Swiss, no judgement call*. Unless the Tourney staff screwed the pooch, it's clockwork, nothing unguaranteed at all.
(* Not unless the commish rules that the substitutions change the standard Swiss rules?
http://fumbbl.com/help:Tournament+Structure )
The Swiss system is sometimes a brainscrew to predict (without pen and paper), but it sifts from the top down, so the top team plays the next-highest that they haven't played, and then that's repeated until all are accounted for - that's pretty easy to predict in most situations we're looking at here.
It only gets odd if top teams have already played, and so they end up playing unexpectedly lower teams, or the remaining teams to get sifted have all already played each other - then they're stuck repeating.
In Albion:
#1 Expats play the #2 Pillagers.
#3 IceDragons play #4 (tbd*).
(* There is 1 game pending, Vagabonds vs. Rangers. If the Vagabonds win, they sit alone in 4th with 5 pts and the Icedragons will play them, otherwise it's the current 4th place Greenbeards, as the 'Dragons haven't played either of them.)
The remaining Albion matchups depend on the outcome of that last game, which could change things up as high as 4th place, but the process is the same.
In Bretonnia, same process (with a little more convolution) reveals...
#1 Pirates have played the #2 Avengers, so their next unplayed opponent means...
#1 Pirates play #3 Cavaliers
#3 just got claimed, and the #2 Avengers have played the next two available teams, both the #4 and #5 slots, so we keep going down to find the first team they haven't played...
#2 Avengers play #6 Scavengers
The #4 Goldlords have played the #5 Renegades and #7 Frostheim**, so, similarly (and here's one of those "unexpected" matchups)...
#4 Goldlords play #8 Lumberjacks** (good luck, 'Jacks!) :/
(** Or possibly, if they win, the Blood Knights - again, one game pending will shift the bottom 4 teams, and might bump the 'Knights up to #7, and the 'Lords haven't played the 'Knights.)
And outside the reach of that last unplayed game...
#5 Renegades play #6 Scavengers
And, yes, it's possible that the Knights and Exiles could play each other again if they both end up remaining #9 and #10 - they just played last game, but that's what can happen to last-place teams if they stay in the basement and nothing higher up sifts down to their level. The teams at the top get priority for "new" opponents, the ones at the bottom get what usually rolls downhill. :/
(There are tweaks that can be made to keep round-1 bottom teams from playing each other in round-2, but that's up to the Commish/etc., and I haven't heard anything about that here.)
And, while we're at it, In Kislev...
Actually, now that I look at it, no, I'm not going to try to untangle that ratsnest of substitutions. But it should work similarly... should...
| FredAstaire wrote: | However, Challenge Cup places are still up for grabs  |
And that's the dealbreaker for who makes it into the finals. Season is long from over for the top teams. |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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uzkulak
Joined: Mar 30, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 05, 2013 - 02:44 |
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| Smeat wrote: | | Quote: | | The draw for round 5 is not made yet... there are no guarantees... |
Actually, (unless I'm badly confused about the process we're using), yes, there are. Chainsaw and FredA have it right - because it's not a "draw", it's a flowchart - purely "if/then" logic and 100% predictable.
Or at least it should be - there is no "random" factor in Swiss, no judgement call*. Unless the Tourney staff screwed the pooch, it's clockwork, nothing unguaranteed at all. |
I used to believe this too, but my recent experience of other swiss scheduling has presented anything other than 100% predictable matchups. Still - I hope that you are right - and my faith in the system can be restored. |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2013 - 06:27 |
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Hmmm - "broken" faith indeed! 
As written, the Swiss rules are simple, iron-clad and very clear - it's a formula, a path from A to Z, zero room for "interpretation", either "is" or "isn't", either "yes" or "no", either "has played" or "has not played". If a tourney staff starts to fudge the matchups, and that's not been written into the tourney rules ahead of time, that's no bueno.  |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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Frankenstein
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Nov 06, 2013 - 11:42 |
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It has been my understanding that SWISS means that there never can be the same match-up twice. Is this assumption wrong? |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2013 - 11:49 |
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Yes, that assumption is wrong. The swiss system tries to find match-ups that haven't yet been played, but there can be repeats occasionally, particularly towards the bottom of the league. I've already played The_Demon twice this season, for example. It makes for a good rivalry, though.
I'm with Smeat on this though - I haven't yet seen any reason to believe the system doesn't work in a predictable manner, listed here. |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Nov 07, 2013 - 11:55 |
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Well, there has been plenty of speculation this season, but it is finally time for some Official Analysis (tm) now we're down to the final round in the Albion Conference:
Albion Conference
The New Bretonnia Expatriates are guaranteed a place in the Challenge Cup, and will win the conference if they win their final game. A draw might be enough for them, as long as the Icedragons don't win their game and end up with a better tie-breaker. They can't afford to lose, though!
The Death Pass Pillagers and the Nidhoggstad Icedragons are both in similar positions. They are in prime position for a place in the Challenge Cup, but ties in their final games would seal the deal. Both can still win the Conference if they win their final games and the other result goes their way; for the Pillagers, a win and hope the Icedragons don't also win (and if they do, don't improve their tiebreaker score more than the Pillagers do). For the Icedragons, they have to win, hope either the Pillagers win or it ends in a draw, and improve their tiebreaker. Complicated, but still very much possible.
The Green Beards of Irana can make it in to the Challenge Cup by beating the Icedragons comprehensively. They would need a net swing of 4.5 tiebreaker points, so a 2-0 win with a couple of casualties would do it. A draw or a loss would see them in the Inter-Conference Shield.
The Magritta Intrusive Tentacles and the Wasteland Vagabonds can both technically sneak in to the Challenge Cup with a strong win, and some results going their way. Probably the best outcome for them is for the Green Beards to beat (and beat up) the Icedragons, and the Pillagers to lose by a few touchdowns. If either team can then win by more than 3 touchdowns, they have a decent shot. A lot of ifs, though. Both teams are safe from relegation at this point.
We now enter relegation territory. First up are the Black Chasm Rush and the Amazon Isle Rangers, who are both playing the bottom two teams. Wins or draws for both teams keep them safe from the drop. A loss for either would be dangerous. If the Rush lose, they Wizards will leap-frog them out of the playoff spots, and although they will probably be safe from automatic relegation, they will also almost certainly face the lottery of the playoffs. The Rangers are in a more precarious position - if they lose, and the Wizards win (or even draw), they will almost definitely finish last. A Rush win would help them out, putting them in the playoff spots.
The Wuppertal Wizards need to win to guarantee safety. A draw could be enough to get out of the playoffs if the Minions win, but a loss could see them drop to bottom and automatic relegation.
The Morgheim Minions also need to win to get out of the automatic relegation spot. A win might see them climb as high as 8th and in to safety if the Wizards lose. A draw will probably not be enough for them. |
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Chainsaw
Joined: Aug 31, 2005
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Nov 07, 2013 - 13:06 |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Nov 07, 2013 - 18:03 |
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The next Conference to finish their penultimate round is the new:
Kislev Conference
Lahmia Undead United and Turov Torpedos play each other in the final round, with the winner guaranteed automatic promotion. A draw would guarantee both teams a place in at least the playoffs, and would probably see United promoted automatically. A draw would be enough for the Torpedos as well if the Volcanos fail to win.
The Caledor Volcanos are also on 5 points, and can guarantee automatic promotion if they win their game. A draw will also be enough, as long as the United - Torpedos game does not end in a draw as well. If they lose, it is technically possible for them to drop out of the playoff spots.
They are playing the Grabheim Terrors, who can guarantee a spot in the playoffs with a win. A win might also be enough to get automatic promotion, as long as United beat the Torpedos. A draw would be dangerous, and would need the Predators to beat the Crusaders and not to build up their tiebreaker score too much. A loss would see them drop out of the playoff spots.
The Lybaras Crusaders are in a similar position, but with a worse tiebreaker score. A win doesn't guarantee them anything - they probably also need the Terrors to lose or draw. If the Terrors lose, a draw will be enough for them to sneak in to the playoffs, however.
The Dark Lands Predators still have an outside shot of making the playoffs, if they can beat the Crusaders and the Terrors also lose. If the Terrors draw their game, then the Predators will need to improve their tiebreaker score to make it in.
Finally, at the bottom of the pile, the Foul Peak Lowdown Rats and the Pillars of Nagash face off against each other again in a grudge match. The Pillars are definitely out of the picture for promotion, while the Lowdown Rats will need a minor miracle to get in to the playoffs. But it is technically possible, and here is their path to glory: Firstly, they have to win (and the Pillars may be looking for revenge). Next, they need the Crusaders and Predators to draw, preferably with the Crusaders taking a few casualties along the way, without taking too many themselves. Finally, they want the Terrors to lose.
If that all clicks in to place, they should finish 4th! |
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Nagi21
Joined: Oct 28, 2010
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| Posted:
Nov 09, 2013 - 03:06 |
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Not bad for a team that started halfway in the season from scratch. |
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FredAstaire
Joined: May 10, 2013
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| Posted:
Nov 09, 2013 - 05:31 |
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After a tough & thrilling match, The New Bretonnia Expatriates emerged victorious over the Death Pass Pillagers. Crowning them winners of the Albion conference.
The Expats started the 1st half off strongly & with a bit of nuffles blessing scored fairly late on, combined with a crippling Pitch Invasion meant they went in at halftime with the lead. The second half proved to be a much tighter affair with the Pillagers racing down the pitch to score quickly, knowing that their only chance of title glory would come with a victory. As the half went on, the Lizardmen were running low on skinks & the ball was left near the Pillagers endzone after the Expats Star skink tripped over his elvishly quick feet in his excitement & had to be taken off the pitch for treatment. With all to play for, and as the orks lined up for a do or die Pass play the Braggart charged forward for the Expats & managed to cross into the endzone securing the victory & the title.
Congratulations to Smeat, and thanks for a very tense & enjoyable match |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Nov 09, 2013 - 06:31 |
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It WAS close, closer than the Ex-Pats wanted to see - any one of several die-rolls toward the end would have meant a tie, and a Pillagers' victory was not impossible until the final Turn 16 kickoff result.
And the Pillagers won the Casualty battle, so went up in tie-breaker points there, which guarantees them a post-season slot, as the only 2 teams in range, the IceDragons and the Greenbeards, play each other for Game 5, and even if the 'Beards win for 6 points total, both can't go up in tie-breaker points.
Standings...2. Death Pass Pillagers 6 pts (+7) (all 5 games played)
3. Nidhoggstad Icedragons 6 pts (+6) (game 5 v. 'Beards tbd)
4. Green Beards of Irana 4 pts (+2) (game 5 v. 'Dragons tbd) At -4 Tie-breaker points down, the 'Beards have their work cut out for them, but playing their direct competitor means that for every Tie-Breaker point they gain, the 'Dragons lose one, doubling the effect!* So, while no "gimme", it's far from unlikely vs. the AV 7 Norse.
* So, the 'Beards have to win AND gain (at least) 2.5 tie-breaker points, which means the 'Dragons would lose 2.5, and the 'Beards win the tie-breaker 4.5:4.0. A simple +1 score win (1:0, 2:1, etc) gives them +2 diff in tie-breaker points (+1/-1 for the +/- score diff), and then just 3 Casualties more would do it!
They could even pass the Pillagers if they can get a total of 3 more Tie-Breaker points - but since Dwarves are not likely to run up the score, that means a LOT of Casualties in their "plus" column* - far from impossible, but not very likely.
(* These points do not have double-effect in chasing the Pillagers - not sure who would win in a tie (they never played each other), so +4.5 points is the only sure way, probably with a 2:0 victory for +2, and then a +7 Casualty difference for another +2.5. Doable, but tough.)
(The Intrusive Tentacles and the Vagabonds are both also at 4 points, but are even further behind in Tie-Breaker points (-1 and -5, respectively), so it'd take a pitch-clearing effort for either of them to make the top 3.)
| Frankenstein wrote: | | It has been my understanding that SWISS means that there never can be the same match-up twice. Is this assumption wrong? |
Oh, my post above isn't that long, and it's all there - feel free to read just paragraphs 3 & 4, starting "The Swiss System..." and "It only gets odd if..." - they're short, each about the size of this paragraph, and the together they sum up when/why repeats happen. |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Nov 09, 2013 - 13:18 |
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Congratulations to the New Bretonnia Expatriates for winning the Albion Conference. They've inherited the dominance that the Barak Varr Goldlords previously had in Albion. Now they just need a couple of Challenge Cups to their name! |
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uzkulak
Joined: Mar 30, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 09, 2013 - 14:11 |
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Gratz to Smeat, 9 points for two seasons in a row is an impressive achievement also.
And it continues the sequence so that the winner of Albion has outscored the winner of Bretonnia in every season so far. |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Nov 09, 2013 - 20:50 |
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And last but not least, the official summary of the third conference to finish the fourth round:
Bretonnia Conference
The Uzkulak Pirates and Appucini Avengers are both in good positions to win the Conference. The Pirates are better placed to win it, as they have a far superior tiebreaker score. A win for the Pirates would pretty much guarantee the Conference for them. The Avengers would win the Conference if they win, and either the Pirates fail to win or they can improve their tiebreaker score by at least 7! Ties or losses for either team will risk them dropping positions, and potentially even out of the Challenge Cup spots.
The Chaos Wastes Cavaliers face the table-topping Pirates. A win would guarantee a place in the Challenge Cup, and might also be enough to win the Conference if the Avengers lose, as they have the best tiebreaker score of the teams on 5 points. A loss would likely see them slip out of the Cup spots.
OWCC champs the Barak Varr Goldlords face an uphill battle to win the Conference, but are playing the 9th placed Lumberjacks. They could win the Conference if they win their game, the Cavaliers tie with the Pirates, and the Avengers lose or draw. A win would put them in with a good shout of a Cup place, but very little is guaranteed this season in the Bretonnia Conference finale.
The Luccini Renegades and Serpents Coast Scavengers are the final two teams on 5 points, and need to win to have an outside chance of sneaking in to the Challenge Cup. A draw for either team will probably not be enough, as their tiebreaker scores are fairly poor. But at least they are both safe from relegation...
Speaking of relegation, the bottom four are all in danger. Top of the pile are Frostheim United, who can guarantee their safety with a win. They are mathematically safe from automatic relegation, but a draw or loss could suck them in to the playoffs.
The Tuarec Exiles and the Mousillon Blood Knights couldn't schedule their game last round, but get a chance to face each other "again" one last time. The Blood Knights have to win, and doing so might see them finish as high as 7th. A draw would very likely see them automatically relegated, and a loss would guarantee it. The Exiles, on the other hand, could end up in the playoffs even with a win, if other results go against them. A loss could well see them end up last and down.
Finally, the Nilfheim Lumberjacks face a tricky match up against the Goldlords, which they need to get at least a point out of to guarantee safety from automatic relegation. Even a win might not be enough to keep them out of the playoffs, though!
It is incredibly tight at both ends of the table in the Bretonnia Conference, making my job predicting outcomes very tricky. It should make for an exciting final run-in, and I look forward to seeing who ends up where at the end of next week! |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Nov 10, 2013 - 04:47 |
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| uzkulak wrote: | | Gratz to Smeat, 9 points for two seasons in a row is an impressive achievement also. |
Thanks! Coulda been a clean sweep, still kicking myself for getting cute on that stall vs. the 'Dragons that would have forced them to try for the late tie. 
(And apologies to those racing against them, and Winni - yw.) 
| gjopie wrote: | | Congratulations to the New Bretonnia Expatriates for winning the Albion Conference. They've inherited the dominance that the Barak Varr Goldlords previously had in Albion. Now they just need a couple of Challenge Cups to their name! |
Ya, details, details. But this might be the season it actually happens! 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And now, equally unanticipated and unlooked-forward-to by all, my own utterly meaningless foot-planted-in-mouth BS know-nothing know-it-all League Predictions!...
Albion:
One game is already in the books, locking the Expats in 1st (and thus I have the luxury to blather like this) and the Pillagers at 6 points with +7 tie-breaker points...
Icedragons vs. Green Beards
This is a tough one. Coach Winni handles his Norse very well, but Coach pbydm boasts an excellent site coaching record. More, the Norse are missing a Troll, both a valuable road block and ClawMB can-open vs. the AV 9 dwarfs. However, I think it will come down to the experienced Norse team out-skilling (and then out-running) the slower freshman dwarves on the field.
2:1 Icedragons
(The other big question (to some) is... if the 'Dragons win, whether they'll lose the bash battle and so lose Casualty points, and end up in 3rd despite winning the game!)
Intrusive Tentacles vs. Vagabonds
Another tough matchup - both teams have had mixed results against some of the top teams, but the Tents got a free forfeit round 1 and have been shut out twice, while the Vags got drubbed 4:2 by the #9 Wizards.
All said, I have to give the edge to the Vags and then some more for several reasons, because 1) they have more Block vs. 2) the Tentacles' decay, plus 3) the Vags get 100+ in inducements.
2:0 Vagabonds
Rush vs. Wizards
After their blowout Game 1 victory over the Vagabonds, the Wizards have dropped 3 games to tough opponents, and for this match will be missing a Guard Blitzer. However, they will enjoy ~470 in Inducements, which means their contracted Wizard plus 320 more.
But there's a reason for that - besides the Rush's new ROgre, they have one ClawMB plus one St 4 MB (and a DP to mop up), plus three Blodge Gutters (two +MA!) and another Wrodger, matched with a Kicker to take full advantage of all that speedy dodginess.
While the Wizard is a dangerous wildcard, without any Tackle I don't think they can stop the Rats (nor protect their Catchers for long), so I'm giving it to the Rush.
3:1 Rush
Rangers vs. Minions
Coach Demon has not been able to rally his Pact except once this season (for a 2:2 tie against the BC Rush). However, the Rangers have struggled against anything resembling "bash", and the Minions are that.
However, without any Tackle on the Minions, I have to give this to the dodge-spam Rangers.
2:1 Rangers
Totally unreliable Albion Final Standings Prediction:
#1 Expats 9 (+5.5) (locked)
#2 Pillagers 6 (+7) (locked in points, not in standings)
#3 Icedragons 6 (+6.5)
#4 Vagabonds 6 (-3)
#5 Rush 5 (-.5)
#6 Rangers 5 (-6)
#7 Green Beards 4 (+2.5)
#8 Tentacles 4 (-1)
#9 Wizards 2 (-2.5)
#10 Minions 1 (-3.5)
~~~~~~~~~~
Bretonnia
Pirates v. Cavaliers
The freshman Cav's have had a good run, and boast the highest Cas diff in the League this season, and if their Cas dice catch fire again they could pull this out. But although they will enjoy ~300k in inducements to play with, their lack of team skills (and, 2nd half, possibly bench depth) will hurt them against the predictably brutal and generally superior Pirate roster.
2:1 Pirates
Avengers v. Scavengers
I have little faith in this prediction - while I have my pick, both of these 5-point teams are very... mmmm... let's say "volatile", with both having several key points in both the plus and minus columns. In short, I can say what I think will happen, but admit, even more than any average BB game, anything could happen.
Tied in TV, for the freshman WElf Avengers you have all that Ag 4 and Dodgey goodness, but their Treeman was killed last game, leaving St 3 (or 2!) AV 7 across the board and 3 unreliable Journeymen Linos.
Meanwhile, for the sophomore Lizard Scavengers you have five St 4's (and a Krox) and a pair of Diving Tackle Skinks, but the 6th Saurus out MNG, and only 1 with Block with some rather unexpected skills on the others - one with Dodge, another with Sidestep, another with only Tackle - tho' that last could prove helpful in this game. One Loner Skink is not a huge handicap, but having no bench could bite the first team to start losing players.
All that combined, plus the 3 ties for the Lizards, speaks of potential as yet unfulfilled there, but I think in the end the difference will be the 2 Blodgestepper Wardancers for the Avengers, one Stripper and one Tackler, and the lack of Block for the Lizards.
3:1 Avengers
Goldlords v. Lumberjacks
Swiss mismatch of the Season. The 3-time defending champion, TV 1690 AV 9 Dwarfs vs. a battered, freshman 1-0-3, AV 7 Norse team, with 2 skills on the roster and a niggled Ulf. 'Nuff said, except Good Luck, 'Jacks!*
3:0 Goldlords
(* On a personal note, having a similar, first-season, battered Norse team[ in a diff League, I strongly suggest Coach BlueDevil sets part of his ~580 in Inducements to invest in at least one extra Apo and some fodder for the LoS and the bashing sure to come. Survive to build for next Season, save the Apo's for your Positionals, and don't risk costly AV 7 players trying to force anything that isn't there. Unless you plan on abandoning this team (don't, they get better!) any final score that involves losing key players is a Loss.
I don't "predict" that it will happen, but dropping back to the Kislev league for a season may be the best thing that could happen to your team, a much softer environment to prepare for a real push.)
Renegades v. Frostheim United
The Renegades are scary on paper, but this season haven't been able to live up to expectations, with a Cas diff of only +5 total. The freshman Frostheim, with 4 Guards, a fledgeling ballhawk hobgoblin and 200k+ in Inducements, might be able to turn the tables for a defensive scoop-and-score, but unless that happens, or the Renegades can land some of those MB Claws early and often, I see this as a standoff, two drives for a score each to start each half, with those each followed by a stalled/failed drive for the tie.
1:1 tie
Exiles vs. Blood Knights
On one side of the coin, the Exiles have dropped from Division champs to (near) the basement, and have lost their last 3 games, 1-0-3, including 2 to significantly lower-skilled opponents. On the other side, the 'Knights have drawn some surlier opponents but have come out the worse, 0-1-3, their only draw v. the Scavengers.
Both teams have winning potential, so whichever coach manages to snap out of their mental slump will win this game, but short of knowing who that might be I'm giving it to the Exiles. Their Game 2 loss v. the spam-tackle Goldlords can be understood, and with 2 key players out MNG their next loss likewise could, possibly, be excused, but - more importantly - the 'Knights #1 Blodge vamp is out MNG courtesy of the Pirates, and I don't think the other 3 will be able to hold against the blodge-spam they'll be facing.
Altho' many think of this as "The battle to not be relegated down", both coaches should see it as their opportunity to prove that (most/some of) the previous losses were flukes.
2:1 Exiles
Totally unreliable Bretonnia Final Standings Prediction:
#1 Pirates 8 (+7)
#2 Avengers 8 (+1)
#3 Goldlords 7 (+11.5)
#4 Cavaliers 5 (+10)
#5 Renegades 5 (+1.5)
#6 Scavengers 5 (-4.5)
#7 Exiles 4 (-3.5)
#8 Frostheim U'd 4 (-4.5)
#9 Lumberjacks 2 (-10)
#10 Blood Knights 1 (-8.5)
~~~~~~~
So, to continue the hallucinatory prognostication, the final matchups would be...
#1 Expats (bye)
#1 Pirates (bye
#2 Pillagers v. #3 Goldlords
A more or less even match on paper, and the recent non-wins by the Goldlords weigh against their previous league domination. Four St 4 BOB's plus a Troll Guard vs. one +St Blodge Runner supported by 5 Guards. The MB on each team (3 on Orcs, 6(!) on Dwarfs) could be a factor, but will be hit-and-miss v. AV 9. Expect the Orcs to get ~50k in inducements, which should balance against the dwarf's thick skulls.
In the end, my money's going to be on the spam Guard of the Dwarfs, giving them the field position battle, but they will have to earn this victory.
2-1 GoldLords
#3 Icedragons v. #2 Avengers
Here I personally expect the 'Dragons to win the bash battle and cas the AV 7 Avengers into submission, but if anyone can pull a rabbit out of a hat it's Ag 4.
I'll say 2:1 'Dragons (but it's really 6:5 and pick 'em)
And if all that happens, that means that in the semi's, the Pirates will meet the 'Dragons, and the Expats and the Goldlords meet in a rematch of last season's championships a round early... and while confident, I'm not going to make this post even longer by predicting those rounds, not from this far out.
8888888888888888888888888888888888888888
In Kislev....
First, CONGRATS to Lahmia Undead United, for winning their last game and locking up the run-away winner spot for this chaotic season.
I haven't had time to watch any of these games, nor have I yet played any of the teams or coaches, but I'll take a shot in the dark anyway... can't be any more full of &#!^ than anything I wrote above!...
Volcanos vs. Terrors
Short of a truly Pyrrhic victory (or a runaway score in one of the lower-tier games), the winner of this game will be in 2nd place - a tie gives it to the Volcanos.
The Volc's have a true record of 2:1:0, while the Terrors are 1:1:1, and both teams only have 2 earned skills to their name. However, while the Volcs fought to a 1:1 tie against the division winner LUU, the Terrors were blown out 0:3, and in general have demonstrated difficulty scoring (if also a marginally stronger defensive record than the Volcs, that one game aside).
And while the Volcanoes are currently burdened by 2 Journeymen linos and have no easy answer to the two St 4 Flesh Golems, they have a strong offense that the Torps might have trouble stopping.
3:1 Volcanoes
Crusaders vs. Predators
On paper these teams look very well matched - skills are close, past games are close. However, the edge again and again seems to go to the Predators, that +70k in Inducements probably(?) won't make up for - a little more Strength, a couple more Blockers, a couple Guards that the Crusaders just don't have.
2:1 Predators
Lowdown Rats vs. Pillars
A rematch of the last round that the Rats won 2:0, the Pillars seemed to have no answer for the Gutter Runners then, and it's only gotten worse as 2 of them Blodged up after that game.
The Rats may have trouble with the pair of MB Tomb Guardians (one new since last game!) and so might not be able to stop a score this time (or just not want to!), but shouldn't have trouble scoring for the win.
2:1 Rats
Totally unreliable Kislev Final Standings Prediction:
#1 LUU 7 (+15) (locked)
#2 Volcanoes 7 (+1.5)
#3 Torpedoes 5 (-4) (locked in points, not in standings)
#4 Predators 4 (+1)
#5 Lowdown Rats 4 (-4.5)
#6 Terrors 3 (+0)
#7 Crusaders 3 (-5)
#8 Pillars 1 (-2) |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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FUMBBL HAIKU'S
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