Nablah
Joined: Nov 14, 2012
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 Posted:
Feb 26, 2014 - 10:43 |
 
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Actually, watching the replay made me realize that I played a really bad 15th turn. I could have stayed out of reach of your GR, and could have avoid the 1DB.
My mistake was to think that you would fail something and to forget that you had horns on this GR.
Even if I had it done right I would still have had to block your GR with 2DB and acheive 2 gfi which leave enough room for failure but who knows.
I hate when I realize how stupid I can be sometimes...
oh and I forgot to mention: I HATE RATS!!! |
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Nagi21
Joined: Oct 28, 2010
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Feb 27, 2014 - 01:06 |
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And we hate you too  |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Feb 27, 2014 - 01:47 |
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All non-rats hate all rats, as a rule.
| gjopie wrote: | | A 0-0 draw keeps both teams' title hopes alive, although also leaves it open for other teams to come in and steal the glory. It'll be an exciting final round at the top of the Albion Conference! |
As a 1-1-1 team, that hurts! The Expats had counted on one or the other to fall - the math is getting less and less friendly. 
The past-2-years Albion champs are currently sitting in 6th place, and with a pathetic tie-breaker value. 2 wins guarantees nothing - the right teams have to lose, and possibly lose big, unfortunately.
And the Green Beards of Irana vs. Foul Peak Lowdown Rats still has to be played - that could make things even worse.
As I say so often in-game... bah.  |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Feb 27, 2014 - 11:43 |
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The super-keen Kislev Conference has finished their penultimate round, which means it is time for our seasonal Final Round Preview! Only 6 teams left, fighting for two automatic promotion spots and two playoff spots. What results are we looking for in the final round?
Kislev Conference
Both the Dark Crag Cripplers and Loreni Jadefire can guarantee automatic promotion if they win or draw their respective games. Both teams could still win the conference, too - they both just have to match or beat the other's result, with the Cripplers in a better position due to their superior tie-breaker score. The worst either could finish would be in 3rd, so they will reach at least the playoffs, and one is guaranteed automatic promotion even if they both lose.
The other team in the running for automatic promotion is the Diseased Wasters. If they beat the Cripplers, they are up; and a loss would guarantee they are into the playoffs. A draw would be more complicated - if they draw, and Jadefire lose, they will almost certainly take 2nd place from them.
Umbra Chaotica Utd can't make automatic promotion anymore, but a draw would guarantee a playoff spot. If they lose their final game, and the Corsairs win theirs, they could be pushed out to 5th place. If the third game is a draw or a fling win, they are probably safe.
The Clar Karond Corsairs and Olde Worlde Halfe have outside shots at a playoff place. A draw would be no good for either team - they need to win. The Corsairs just need a win and to hope that Chaotica Utd lose their game. The Halfe-pints, on the other hand, need to win BIG. They need a tie-breaker swing of 13 - so that means they could, for example, win 5-0, hope Utd lose 5-0 as well, and get a bunch of casualties going their way. Looks unlikely, perhaps, but anything is possible!
Good luck to everyone in the final round. |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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Feb 27, 2014 - 11:44 |
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| Smeat wrote: | | And the Green Beards of Irana vs. Foul Peak Lowdown Rats still has to be played - that could make things even worse. |
No they don't - that game was forfeited. We're into the fourth round. |
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Nagi21
Joined: Oct 28, 2010
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| Posted:
Feb 28, 2014 - 01:31 |
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Lol... 1-0-2... not my finest year. |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Feb 28, 2014 - 02:11 |
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A LOT of teams are having the experience.   
| gjopie wrote: | | Smeat wrote: | | And the Green Beards of Irana vs. Foul Peak Lowdown Rats still has to be played - that could make things even worse. |
No they don't - that game was forfeited. We're into the fourth round. |
Forfeited?!!! 
The GB's had a good shot at the playoffs - I am truly shocked, and while that helps the Expats, objectively I'm also sorry to hear it. Hate forfeits, hate winning by forfeit, especially hate League play-offs determined by forfeit.
Hope both coaches get back on track asap! GL!
Anyway, back to late-breaking sports news...
Well sports fans, with 1 game to go before preseason, the New Bretonnia Expatriates have clawed (and diced) their way (for the moment?) into 4th place with a very shaky 2-1 win over Lahmia Undead United.
In a "must win" game for both teams, the Expats chose to receive, but Lamia U surprised the fans by knocking out several key players during that opening drive, forcing the Expats to scramble for a score Turn 6 and giving themselves 3 turns to respond. Flawed Expat defensive play on Turn 8 allowed Lahmia U a good shot at tying at the half but the RR'd catch in the end-zone was dropped, and then 2nd half a snaked Turn 15 gfi for that tie was snaked, allowing an Expat scoop and medium-deep punt. (A cunning T16 chain push kept the tie mathematically possible, but luck ran out on the odds-against desperation play.)
If either of those efforts had succeeded, the tie would have all but taken both teams out of the post-season, and if Lamia had scored with both then Lamia would have knocked out the Expats and be solidly positioned to challenge for the post-season themselves!
Only one remaining Round 4 game in Albion can affect the playoffs: Wasteland Vagabonds vs. Nilfheim Lumberjacks. If the 'Jacks win, they move into 3rd and bump the Vags and Expats down one each (into 4th and 5th); if the Vags win they move solidly into 1st place with the only 3-1-0 record (and solidly the best tie-breaker points!).
As it stands, the Expats are still where they were before the game - in "must win" situation, and needing the right teams ahead of them to conveniently lose. Go Lizahd Powah!
And meanwhile, in Bretonnia Conference, that defending Conference and League champion, the Uzkulak Pirates, are not faring much better, with the same 2-1-1 score but leading a 3-way tie for 3rd place.
Everything rests on the final 5th game, almost no one holds their own destiny, and several of the few teams that seem locked are relatively new faces! |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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BlueDevil420
Joined: Dec 19, 2004
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| Posted:
Feb 28, 2014 - 20:10 |
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| Smeat wrote: | Only one remaining Round 4 game in Albion can affect the playoffs: Wasteland Vagabonds vs. Nilfheim Lumberjacks. If the 'Jacks win, they move into 3rd and bump the Vags and Expats down one each (into 4th and 5th); if the Vags win they move solidly into 1st place with the only 3-1-0 record (and solidly the best tie-breaker points!).
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After suffering a solid trouncing from Lahmia Undead United in round 3, the Lumberjacks find Nuffle solidly on their side for round 4. Wasteland vagabonds are sent packing in another bloody game. Coach Smeat's prediction was overturned, when the Lumberjacks mauled their way to a 3-0 win claiming the first spot. In the end coach Vesikannu proves himself a Rush fan, delivering a brutal perm on one of the two tacklers with a endgame foul.
Everything left to play for in Albion. Bring on the rats! |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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Feb 28, 2014 - 21:12 |
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| BlueDevil420 wrote: | | [...Coach Smeat's prediction was overturned, when the Lumberjacks mauled their way to a 3-0 win claiming the first spot... |
With an unforeseen +2.5 jump in tie-breaker points, yes they did!
I confess I had no pick in that game, two strong teams butting heads - "bloody" would have been the only safe prediction.
Well done!
Equally unexpected was that the Vags would drop (an equal) 2.5 in tie-breaker points, enough to now be behind the Expats (by 1/2 point!) and putting them (barely) into 4th!
> Complete Current League Standings <
Going in to the final game, the top 5 Albion teams are now locked...1. Nilfheim Lumberjacks, Coach BlueDevil420, 2-2-0 record = 6 pts (+4.5)
2. Black Chasm Rush, Coach gjopie, 2-2-0 record = 6 pts (+3.5)
3. Pillars of Nagash, Coach Nablah, 2-2-0 record = 6 pts (+3.5)
4. New Bretonnia Expatriates, Coach Smeat, 2-1-1 record = 5 pts (+2.5)
5. Wasteland Vagabonds, Coach Vesikannu, 2-1-1 record = 5 pts (+2)
6. (tbd*)
(* A winner between Massif Orcal Mo'rodaz vs. Foul Peak Lowdown Rats will push them alone into 6th place with a record of 2-0-2 - a longshot (if any?) to make the playoffs, but (I think?) not mathematically impossible!)
And as an exclusive sneak peek at the post-season race, here are the pairings for the final games of Albion...
o #1 Nilfheim Lumberjacks vs. #2 Black Chasm Rush
o #3 Pillars of Nagash vs. #4 New Bretonnia Expatriates
o #5 Wasteland Vagabonds vs. (#6 winner of Massif/Foul Peak game, OR (if a tie) then Lahmia Undead United)
(Note that Swiss doesn't usually pair 1 v. 2, 3 v. 4 and 5 v. 6 in the last round - it just worked out that way!)
In Bretonnia, things are less clear at the moment...
The Round 4 #1 Serpents Coast Scavengers vs. #2 Chupayotl Shark-Toads game has yet to be played, and the significance is not perfectly clear. The Scavs had a bye round 1 and the Shark-Toads record and "total points" do not add up, having transferred up late from Kislev. Both are listed at "6 points", but the S-T's only have a listed record of 2-0-1, so... we are standing by for clarification on that.*
(* @ commissioner - what's the official interpretation there? Shark-Toads have a record of 2-0-1 but 6 points. Are the points wrong, or the record as listed?)
However, if(?!) the Scavengers can achieve a recognized 4-0-0 record with a win in that week-4 game, at something around +5 tiebreaker points ahead of the next nearest they will have locked the Conference Championship and a bye in round 1 of the playoffs!
But with their 4th game played, #'s 3-6 currently stand at...3. Uzkulak Pirates, Coach Chainsaw, 2-1-1 record = 5 pts (+6)
4. Frostheim United, Coach bladten, 2-1-1 record = 5 pts (+3.5)
5. Barak Varr Goldlords, Coach uzkulak, 2-1-1 record = 5 pts (-3)
6. Nidhoggstad Icedragons, Coach Winni, 2-0-2 record = 4 pts (+0.5)
All are in the hunt for the playoffs, altho' the Icedragons, who started the season so strongly by knocking off the season 1 & 2 champion Goldlords and then Season 3 & 4 reigning League champion Pirates, now need help from the right teams to see the post-season.
(Too much depends on the winner of the Scavs-ST's game to post a simple matchup preview.) |
_________________
Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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Nablah
Joined: Nov 14, 2012
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| Posted:
Mar 01, 2014 - 00:38 |
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Arf it seems the Jacks over commited  beating the Vagabond and injuring their main players was part of the agreement but beating them so bad that I have to play the Expatriates instead was not
Well done Jacks!
Intersting to see that the Cup is still open to the 5 first teams. |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 01, 2014 - 00:43 |
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I've thought I had "a cunning plan" to slide into the perfect play-off slot, only to see it swing around and bite me in the ass when another team did something unexpected with their last game - hurts, don't it? ;D
No one (with the possible exception of the Scavengerss, tbd by their Game 4) has swept the competition as in previous seasons. Might even be open to the top 6 (in both Conferences?), tho' that math is fuzzy atm. |
_________________
Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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Nagi21
Joined: Oct 28, 2010
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| Posted:
Mar 01, 2014 - 01:10 |
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I'll just be happy to avoid relegation this season... playoff? Seriously? You talkin' bout playoffs? |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 01, 2014 - 01:23 |
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For some reason, I often have trouble w/ Khemri - nothing is set in stone, especially not in BB.
If the Pillars win, they sit at 3-2-0, at worst tied with only 1 other team for 1st (and if the 'Jacks/Rush game ties, they are alone in 1st!). The Pillars are also in if they tie and the Vags don't win. So, win, and you're in!
For their part, the Expats have to 1) beat the Pillars, and 2)also having enough tie-breaker points to keep the Vagabonds from tying them if they win*.
(* The head-to-head record counts last, after tie-breaker points and the flat [TD + Cas/2] for. The Vags win the second tie-breaker atm.)
Meanwhile, if the 'Jacks/Rush game ties*, both quite possibly stay ahead of the Expats via tie-breaker, so that game almost must have one loser for the Expats to make the post-season.
Ohhh, the suspense - you could cut it with a clawpomb. |
_________________
Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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| Posted:
Mar 01, 2014 - 13:30 |
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| Smeat wrote: | | (* @ commissioner - what's the official interpretation there? Shark-Toads have a record of 2-0-1 but 6 points. Are the points wrong, or the record as listed?) |
Points are correct, record is wrong. I can't change the record, but I can edit points totals, so always go by that. |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Mar 01, 2014 - 23:37 |
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<nods> thanks!
With the last key 4th game hot off the field, the top 6 places and (almost all) final pairings to decide the post-season in Bretonnia are locked going into the final week!... 1. Serpents Coast Scavengers, Coach ttorvatn, 4-0-0 record = 8 pts (+9.5)
2. Chupayotl Shark-Toads, Coach Subs, 3*-0-2 record = 6 pts (+1.5) (* corrected record)
3. Uzkulak Pirates, Coach Chainsaw, 2-1-1 record = 5 pts (+6)
4. Frostheim United, Coach bladten, 2-1-1 record = 5 pts (+3.5)
5. Barak Varr Goldlords, Coach uzkulak, 2-1-1 record = 5 pts (-3)
6. Nidhoggstad Icedragons, Coach Winni, 2-0-2 record = 4 pts (+0.5)
(Click HERE for full details and standings) And that last game was a wild ride, and a post-season decider! Serpents Coast Scavengers now have an untouchable 4-0 record, and further can boast of a truly impressive (if unnecessary) 9.5 tie-breaker points! They are locked in to win Bretonnia Conference and get the bye for the post-season - grats! And with 5 other teams all jockeying for only 2 remaining slots, that's good news!
The bad news is that their last game is against the always dangerous Uzkulak Pirates. And since the Pirates desperately want that last win (and even tho' a loss would not change their position), keeping their team intact for the post-season will be the real challenge. The Pirates have torn up teams that have tried to "turtle up" before - good luck in the Cas department, you may need it!
For their part, the Shark-Toads, currently alone in 2nd, and in large part the Pirates, with their 2.5 tie-breaker advantage (which is respectable but far from untouchable), are masters of their own fates. A win by the 'Toads locks them in 2nd and into the post-season (and almost certainly knocks out the Goldlords), but anything else and they enter crapshot territory with 4 other teams. And against the G'Lords, they may have their work cut out for them too! The Pirates could (almost) lockup 3rd with a win (and 2nd if the 'Toads lose!), and rely on their current 2.5 pt (+?) tie-breaker advantage to carry them thru.
It's also significant for all concerned that if the Shark-Toads lose (or even tie), that opens the door for TWO of the current 3rd-place teams to possibly squeak in and leave the 'Toads on the outside!
But all 3 third-place teams, the Pirates, Frostheim U[/b] and the Goldlords, all currently tied in 3rd at 2-1-1, and with these teams NOT playing each other, ALL need* to win and count on the right mix of others losing to have a realistic shot. (* If a team ties or even loses there are some obscure finishes that require exactly the right mix of other ties/losses - see below.)
The Game 5 pairings with post-season significance look like this...o #1 Serpents Coast Scavengers vs. #3 Uzkulak Pirates
o #2 Chupayotl Shark-Toads vs. #5 Barak Varr Goldlords
o #4 Frostheim United vs. #7 Dark Lands Predators
o #6 Nidhoggstad Icedragons vs. #8 (winner of Tor Elyr Hurricanes vs. Gaen Vale Starlights) The longest-odds are the Icedragons, altho' they are not mathematically out of it yet! If they win and the Pirates and the Goldlords and Frostheim U all lose... they're in! (They would also probably get in via the tie-breaker if the Goldlords tied and the others lost.)
For their best shot, the three 3rd place teams all need a win and for the other 2 to lose. Or even just for all three to do no better than tie and then count on winning the tie-breaker - but the Pirates have a significant edge there. But if any of these 3rd-place teams lose - unless all 3 lose and the Icedragons don't win - they're out.
It's going to be tooth and claw, fist and boot, bash and ball to the finish. Wishing "Good Luck" to any means "Bad Luck" to their opponent, so "No Bad Luck!" to all - may the best Coaches & Teams win! |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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