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Joined: Nov 28, 2021

Post   Posted: Sep 14, 2022 - 16:24 Reply with quote Back to top

To just play with Atrolonims data a bit (thank you again for this analysis)

The "Big Four" were:
Bomber: 9.5-5.5
Morg: 6.5-8.5
Griff: 3-1
Hakflem 1.5-2.5

Big four because they were the most common stars taken and generally (IMO) felt to be the best of the stars. If you ignore Bomber then the 'big three' went

All other stars taken were:
Deeproot: 1.5-2.5
Frank n Stein: 1-1 (Necro 0-1, Undead 1-0)
Karla von Kill: 1-1 (Lizzies 0-1, Woodies 1-0)
Akhorne: 0-1 (Pro Elves)
Wilhelm Chaney: 1-0 (Undead)
Eldril: 0-1 (Pro Elves)
Fungus: 1-0 (Chorfs)
Gloriel: 0-1 (Dark Elves)
Helmut: 0-1 (Khemri)
Varag: 0-1 (Orc)
Kreek 1-0 (Chaos)

for 5.5-9.5

So while in general teams taking stars were 27-27, teams taking non "Big 4" stars lost more significantly more then they won, and of the Big 4 - Bomber/griff were the only ones who won more then they lost. And this echoes Astrolonims sense Griff is really dangerous.

We don't have enough data on individual stars (aside from Bomber) to make real inferences but general trend is there - maybe Griff being 'better' then Morg/Hakflem is just oddities in a small statistical set.

Bomber probably was overdog treasury bought more then anyone else by virtue of his price and utility particularly in a pretty bash heavy meta where he is better (which I think the tournament was.)

Bigger picture it feels like the NAF environment overvalues stars by virtue of rules set that limits how much of your 'budget' can be spent on skills. You may have a decent amount of TV to work with but for many teams TV 1000 already gets you almost all what you want. The extra gold to build a team either adds in less useful bits (extra rerolls), or bench. A star puts a lot of that available gold crown spending budget on the field rather then in sidelines.
In C type environments would you rather take Griff or 240 TV of skills?

Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 14, 2022 - 16:41 Reply with quote Back to top

depends on the team. Griff is awesome if you don't have a ball carrier (and unlike most stars, he doesn't really care about loner at all, which is huge on a ball carrier).

However, building an awesome ball carrier is easier than ever (+MA +MA +AG block dodge everyone??) and ball carriers have always historically got the most spp to make this viable in the first place

If I do build that, then I've spent 140k of those skills on my ball carrier.. but he's still worse than griff (sure feet, +S, are both really good for a ball carrier, and then he has even more than that as well). so that leaves me 100k for other skills. so my choice is 5 skills or a better ball carrier. and it takes me a long time to build that ball carrier, so if i lose them, i have to start all over. arguably, Griff is therefore a better choice.

Joined: Nov 28, 2021

Post   Posted: Sep 14, 2022 - 18:21 Reply with quote Back to top

Got it - Griff is undervalued somewhat for his cost and is built skills wise as exactly what you want from a scorer. Hard to build better on any team.

But would you take 60K of skills on your ball carrier (not Griff good but pretty good) and 180 K on the rest of the team (guard, tackle, mighty blow on three players for examples) vs Griff on a less skilled team.

I don't know what right answer is necessarily but it's not a slam dunk which would be better in my book and feels like 12 primary skills is really a lot of value. Unlike a NAF tournament environment where Griff isn't shifting your team development by 12 skills ever (nor do I think he necessary should in the standard skill package models)

Part of my musings is this tournament data makes it looks like stars are much less impactful then you would think from hearing people talk about NAF tournaments. I think it's because we are using CTV for inducements and the CTV difference means essentially many more skills for the non inducing team (aside from Bomber who may be scummed from treasury more often.)

Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 14, 2022 - 18:43 Reply with quote Back to top

yup, my particular issue is with stars that are ideal for a team - which is why the big 4 are there - bomber is amazing because of his cost (and therefore accessibility), morg is a mobile blitzer (and pain in the ass ball carrier) that is better at that role than any player you can build (even if he is very expensive), griff is the perfect ball carrier, hakflem is the perfect ball retriever. If you take them, because of that role, and build the team around the fact you have them, then they are insane. If you take them in a random tournament, because you happen to have a lot of inducements, you have a lot of overlap which isn't great. (Imagine a team with morg, where all the killer skills.. are not taken, and instead control skills like guard and stand firm, and a great ball carrier are taken - this looks a lot like the griff idea, but you usually don't see it, because most teams have 1 or more killers, which 'wastes' his potential.)

This is also why deeproot, despite his amazing price, isn't chosen as much. Honestly, he SHOULD be, but he's not 'ideal' in the same way that the big 4 are. He's an ideal road block, but he spends a lot of cost on having MB+2, which a road block doesn't need. Road blocks also tend to be a lot more common, as many teams need multiple of them, so its a lot harder to build a team around having him without wasting skills on your own team.

Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 14, 2022 - 18:47 Reply with quote Back to top

When's the final?

Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 22, 2022 - 20:39 Reply with quote Back to top

The final has been played! - https://fumbbl.com/p/match?id=4406989

Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: Sep 23, 2022 - 11:31 Reply with quote Back to top

The first Major winner of the modern era is a 1200 TV Chaos Dwarf team.

Is this the lowest TV major winner ever?

Joined: Apr 02, 2021

Post   Posted: Sep 23, 2022 - 15:23 Reply with quote Back to top

I can add some anecdotal comments about the star player usage in the three games I played:
Most notably, one of Griff's 3 wins came despite him (not because of him).

First game, I induced Kreek and my opponent had Bomber.
Kreek lasted only 1 turn, but made the most of it: CASed a black orc, marching through the backfield and knocking down Bomber. My opponent used up his turn 1 activations to successfully KO Kreek. But that put him in terrible field position. I had pitch control and stalled until turn 8. Bomber was knocked down every time he got to his feet. Kreek could have returned for overtime if there had been one.

Second game, I induced nothing and went up against Morg, Bomber and a wizard.
Morg and Bomber were both effective. Morg caused 3 KO's and Bomber caused 1. Bomber also stunned my ball carrier. This game was decided by me being more lucky on injury rolls.

Third game, I induced nothing and faced Griff:
This counts as a win for Griff although he was the LVP.
He caused a turnover in turn 1 on a GFI and was immediately fouled-CASed.
I lost due to an unlucky disparity on injury rolls and KO recoveries.
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