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Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: Nov 06, 2017 - 11:55 Reply with quote Back to top

This is a clean thread to address the Black Box Competition that shall henceforth be known as the Black Box Steel Gauntlet.

Here is the link to the group page.
https://www.fumbbl.com/p/group?op=view&group=11166&p=teams

Here is the scoring page.
https://fumbbl.com/p/boxtrophy

The rules for the 2017 Gauntlet are as set out by JakeSteel in his original thread here: https://www.fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphpBB2&file=viewtopic&t=29475&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

As Jake made the prize offer, no prize is guaranteed but there will be plenty of fun and I will provide a virtual trophy at the end of the competition.

What can I win?
1st prize: Physical Winner’s Trophy and £100 equivalent in any non-cash form of the winner's choosing (ie amazon/tritex voucher, steam gift, etc).

When?
Start: Now (Late entries welcome at any point – you just have less time available to fit in the games)
Finish: End of Sept 2018

How do I compete?
Select a squad of 5 unique teams from a budget of 9 pts (team costs below).
Create and name these 5 teams as necessary. Ensure all teams have 0 games played prior to entry.
Register the teams on the group page.
Play games in the box, win games, boast heavily in thread.

Team Cost:
0: Ogre, Goblin, Fling
1: Vamp, UW,
2: Human, Khemri, High Elf, Elven Union, Slann
3: Rest (max: 2)

Scoring: (Only the first 40 games with each team count)
W = 1 pt
D = 0.5 pt
L = 0 pt

2.5 pts per leftover pt of budget (awarded on entry).
2.5 pts for each race's top coach (best record - awarded end of competition)

Rules:
1) All entrants are obviously expected to abide by all Fumbbl and Blackbox rules.
2) Refusing to play a match once drawn in the scheduler may result in penalties or disqualification. A concession will usually lead to disqualification.
3) By entering you agree to have your running score published in weekly updates/leaderboard.
4) One entry per coach and once entered you cannot change/restart your squad.
5) Trashtalking fellow competitor’s decisions and results is highly encouraged - providing it stays within normal forum parameters.
6) Tiebreaker: Where scores are tied (for best racial record or overall victor) the winner is whoever achieved the score first.

Additional notes:
You don't have to finish all 200 games to be eligible for victory - falling short just gives you less opportunities to acquire points.

If nothing else, here is what you are playing for.

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Last edited by Kondor on Nov 08, 2017 - 19:15; edited 2 times in total
Throweck



Joined: Feb 23, 2013

Post   Posted: Nov 06, 2017 - 13:16 Reply with quote Back to top

I have entered my five teams...is that all I have to do?
tussock



Joined: May 29, 2011

Post   Posted: Nov 06, 2017 - 13:42 Reply with quote Back to top

https://fumbbl.com/p/boxtrophy

Teams should be entered in the automated score counter, really. Smile

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Throweck



Joined: Feb 23, 2013

Post   Posted: Nov 06, 2017 - 13:43 Reply with quote Back to top

tussock wrote:
https://fumbbl.com/p/boxtrophy

Teams should be entered in the automated score counter, really. Smile


Done! Thanks tussock
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Nov 08, 2017 - 13:19 Reply with quote Back to top

Bit of stats
These numbers are blackbox-only games since 20/3/17 to 20/10/17, ie after piling on was removed. Filtered where the team had played 40 games or less (so 19,227 matchups in sample)

It's sorted by Expected Points column which = win%+(draw%*0.5) for 40 games

Code:
Race          Win%     Draw%    Expt   Cost
Lizardmen     47.78%   21.17%   27.580   3
Necromantic   44.23%   22.53%   26.703   3
Chaos Dwarf   44.27%   20.83%   26.038   3
Amazon        44.17%   20.00%   25.669   3
Khemri        38.90%   24.44%   25.335   2
Undead        38.84%   23.53%   24.948   3
Dwarf         39.29%   22.76%   24.818   3
Wood Elf      42.37%   19.40%   24.708   3
Dark Elf      41.92%   19.73%   24.663   3
Skaven        40.51%   19.55%   24.023   3
Vampire       37.46%   22.48%   23.977   1
Orc           37.34%   22.01%   23.740   3
High Elf      36.26%   22.71%   23.590   2
Norse         36.05%   22.03%   23.233   3
Elf           42.16%   15.89%   23.220   2
Chaos         32.90%   24.00%   22.758   3
Chaos Pact    29.85%   25.37%   22.090   3
Nurgle        31.96%   22.98%   21.976   3
Underworld    33.02%   20.22%   21.299   1
Human         34.80%   18.18%   21.191   2
Slann         29.86%   22.74%   21.041   2
Halfling      27.19%   23.96%   20.461   0
Goblin        20.32%   21.39%   16.684   0
Ogre          13.09%   21.48%   13.826   0


Vampire and Khemri are undercosted- they're good value
Chaos, Chaos Pact and Nurgle are overcosted- they don't win enough in their first 40 games for the 3point cost



Purely by the numbers, the strongest squad is lizard, necro, khemri, vampire, halfling. Expected results = 124.06 total

That's if you play all 200 games. But interestingly, if you don't play all 40 games per team, the bonus points become more important
A 2-point-cost squad of vampire, underworld, goblins, halfings, ogres becomes better if you will play less than 26 games per team (Expected results for 40 games would be 113.75)


Personally, I've not created teams yet but my planned squad has changed. I've already got a rookie necro team, don't want to play halfings, was interested in underworld. So I'd go with lizard, khemri, high elf, underworld, vampire.
Still a 9-point-cost squad, the expected points for 40 games is 121.78, and I'm not bothered about the difference there.
DrPoods



Joined: Nov 14, 2013

Post   Posted: Nov 08, 2017 - 14:54 Reply with quote Back to top

Ultimate powergaming!

That's an interesting writeup. My gut tells me that Khemri are overcosted outside of this particular trophy though. Of course, I may be wrong about that but it's how I feel about the Quixotic nature of coaching them. Forever tilting at windmills.

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Balle2000



Joined: Sep 25, 2008

Post   Posted: Nov 08, 2017 - 17:37 Reply with quote Back to top

@Sp00keh You forgot to factor in average roster proficiency levels of coaches running the respective rosters. This means a coach has to match average roster proficiency levels of the coaches whom you based those number on for "Expt" to be a guiding principle Wink There is also the issue of exceptional players (eg. stat-freaks) on frequently activated teams, leading to statistical over-performance for a race overall. On a similar note, some frequently activated teams playing experimental team builds etc are not set up for winning, subsequently dragging the overall win% down below the average of "optimized" teams Twisted Evil
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Nov 08, 2017 - 18:35 Reply with quote Back to top

@poods yea khemri being 5th best rookie team for box is a surprise to me. Better than any elves!
It's mainly because draws are so well rewarded in this system

If I was really power gaming, I wouldn't have posted the stats Smile


@balle it's based on average performance
If you are better/worse with different races than others, compared to the average coach, then yes take that into account when picking your squad
If you suck with lizards or whatever then pick something else

The average performance remains the same tho, and remains useful too as a guide.. most coaches are close to average

Another aspect i didn't mention is the bonus points for winning a race.
The spread is quite small, most teams are within 2.5pts of expected performance of each other. so if you could win the bonus 2.5 pts by being best at a (non optimal) race, definitely go for it

Your other points about freaks and old teams don't matter because I filtered by less than 40 games played
Also I think the theme-teams are generally in R and this is filtered for B only


Last edited by Sp00keh on Nov 08, 2017 - 19:11; edited 5 times in total
zakatan



Joined: May 17, 2008

Post   Posted: Nov 08, 2017 - 18:42 Reply with quote Back to top

ok we did it at the same time XD

Kondar take the code from here: https://fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphpBB2&file=viewtopic&t=29505 since the description is a bit more complete

then someone lock the other threads

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zakatan



Joined: May 17, 2008

Post   Posted: Nov 08, 2017 - 18:48 Reply with quote Back to top

also you should aply direclty here: https://fumbbl.com/p/boxtrophy

not in the group page.

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Gartch



Joined: Sep 07, 2012

Post   Posted: Nov 08, 2017 - 19:39 Reply with quote Back to top

@Sp00keh:
You have to consider coach level:
vampire are mostly coached by very good coaches (well at least it was so before the Black Box Trophy, I think these figures will drop Laughing )
For the Chaos and Nurgle it's the opposite: a lot of very good coaches don't coach them in Box at high TV. And a lot of beginners begin with these teams (or begin with them when they enter Black Box for first time).
Also I think the rules author aim was to bring diversityin Black Box: there are already a lot of Nurgle and Chaos teams, no need for incentive here, if nobody took them for the Trophy, it would have been fine for me Wink
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Nov 08, 2017 - 20:25 Reply with quote Back to top

Hmm, I might see if I can re-weight by coach performance

Looking at chaos nurgle and pact being useless in early games but still cost 3 pts makes me think it was the explicit aim of the $100 lie in original post to make them played less, yes.

I'm pretty convinced it Jake steel is the second account of someone, trying to influence the box population to suit themselves.
It's still interesting, hence me producing the stats
And even if it was a lie, it still has caught on and hopefully improves the box overall
PurpleChest



Joined: Oct 25, 2003

Post   Posted: Nov 08, 2017 - 21:23 Reply with quote Back to top

Locked. Please continue in clean stickied thread:

HERE

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