Voidhawk
Joined: Jul 28, 2004
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 Posted:
Aug 07, 2004 - 03:53 |
 
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Hi!
I guess a lot of people complain about the generator, Im not going to do that.  I was thinking of how to check if its really good. I mean you need to "throw" the dices a couple of thousands times around to see the distribution. But my point is that we have already done that. Doesnt every log file contain the dicethrows? Is it possible to just collect these numbers and see how the Java generator behaves? It should be possible me thinks, but it possible requires admin access? Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
Voidhawk  |
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CorporateSlave3
Joined: Feb 07, 2004
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Aug 07, 2004 - 03:57 |
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You really ought to search this topic...there is a thread where someone did put the Java random number generator thorugh its paces and after several hundred thousand die rolls it came out...random. |
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***Did you know? 42.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot? |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 07, 2004 - 22:50 |
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kurre
Joined: Oct 14, 2003
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Aug 07, 2004 - 23:19 |
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SunTzu
Joined: Feb 26, 2004
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Aug 11, 2004 - 13:20 |
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Something we at www.megamek.net has started to suspect is that the java RNG is flawed in the way that it tends to do long runs of numbers, like 5 5's in a row, then 5 7's, etc... Very strange. |
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Mnemok
Joined: Feb 11, 2004
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Aug 11, 2004 - 13:27 |
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To make the long rows of numbers problem go away (or any random problem), why not just (for each die roll) roll the die ten times and then roll another die (ten sided) to decide which one to use. The extra computing time would be close to zero. If random isn´t enough make it more random.
Is this a good solution or am I out flying when I have these thoughts.
(BTW I also have a feeling the rand.gen. is flawed)  |
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Dyslexics have more fnu. |
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Eddy
Joined: Aug 04, 2004
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Aug 11, 2004 - 13:48 |
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randomness also creates long streaks of the same results. |
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'The generation of random numbers is too important to be left to chance.'
Robert R. Coveyou |
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Laviak
Joined: Jul 19, 2004
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Aug 11, 2004 - 14:20 |
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I can't remember the exact details .... but you can also check the frequency of runs, or any other sequence, as well as the frequency of the individual values.
Someone with i bit more knowledge of statistics would probably be able to provide a bit more info
Basically, I think the idea is that there should be 6x as many runs of '1', as there are runs of '2', and 6x as many runs of '2' as there are runs of '3'...etc. |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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Aug 11, 2004 - 16:05 |
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You know when I have 3-5 games of bad luck in a row such bad luck (while my opponent is having really good luck) that I have no possible way of winning it gets old.
Then I go and have 1-3 games of crazy good luck and I know my opponent can't be having any fun while he has his bad luck that I get the same sick feeling.
I want a fun, competitive game where both of us have a chance of winning not these bad and good luck streaks I'm experiencing.
I don't mind losing but my god when you have no possible way of winning because of a bad luck streak you just can't have any fun. |
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Grumbledook
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 11, 2004 - 16:32 |
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we checked after 100k games and the distribution was fine |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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Aug 11, 2004 - 16:40 |
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You know grumbledook you say that but does that log sparser read all rolls including armor rolls, kick of table, et cetera?
The odds of getting 5, 1s or 5, 6s in a row is in the millions yet in less then 200 games I've seen it at least 7 times each.
That alone tells me something isn't adding up.
I've had streaks of 3 and 5 games in a row the luck was so horrible it just got stupid. I mean hell I'm here to play a fun game not be frustrated and afraid to throw 1 block or pick up the ball let alone throw or catch it.
I know I'm not the only one experiencing this set of extremes.
If you have 100 rolls in a row of the same number 6 times each a different number your parser is only gonna show 1-6 being rolled 100 times not extreme stretches of those numbers. |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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Aug 11, 2004 - 16:43 |
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P.S. If a casino was using this generator I'd make a fortune off the double 1s. |
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LordRummickIV
Joined: Apr 20, 2004
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Aug 11, 2004 - 17:18 |
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You can't complain about the random numbers. You have to think the 16% probabilities for each number, only will be 16% after a lot of rolls.
(And a lot is more than 1000. In a short serie of 20, you can get 20 sixes, and you won't complain) |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 11, 2004 - 17:19 |
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In "less than 200 games" you have seen over 100,000 rolls*. The odds of getting 5 consecutive numbers are 1/6^5 or 1/7,776. On average, 100,000 rolls you will get strings of 5 consecutive numbers 12.86 times.
Roll a die 100 times. Honestly. Sit there and do it. Write it all down as you go.
Then do it again. And again. And again. And again.
You will very possibly get streaks of 5. Or maybe you won't. That's the definition of random. You can't predict it.
Looks like you just didn't notice those strings of 4s. Of course you didn't. It's psychology, not math.
* this is not an imaginary number. Check one of your .zip results from a game in which you didn't reload (so you have the full game in the .zip file). Look at the .log file in Notepad or TextEdit and scroll down to about 5 lines up from the end. It will tell you all the numbers that you rolled. Try a couple and you'll find that there are roughly 1,000 rolls per game, depending upon how risky you play. 100,000 rolls is a conservative number, to be honest. You're probably at least 50% higher than that. |
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Last edited by BadMrMojo on %b %11, %2004 - %17:%Aug; edited 1 time in total |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 11, 2004 - 17:21 |
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| DaBoss wrote: | | P.S. If a casino was using this generator I'd make a fortune off the double 1s. |
Casinos are using this generator and it's because of people who think like you that they stay in business. |
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Condensed Guide for Newbies |
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