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Astrolonim



Joined: Sep 08, 2016

Post   Posted: Aug 28, 2022 - 09:00 Reply with quote Back to top

As promised, although slightly late:

Overall 56 stars were taken in Qualifiers for the UI.
I counted matches where it went to an OT kick-off as a draw (0.5-0.5).
Each of their records were (and keep in mind, these sample sizes are tiny):

Bomber: 9.5-5.5 (Underworld 3-0, Orcs 0-4, Goblins 2-1, Chorfs 2-0, Ogres 1.5-.5, Black Orcs 1-0. Not included: 1 game where both teams bought him)
Morg: 6.5-8.5 (Zons 1-3, Snots 1.5-2.5, Underworld 2-0, Orcs 1-1, Flings 0-1, Imperials 0-1, Woodies 1-0)
Deeproot: 1.5-2.5 (Dorfs 0.5-0.5, Flings 0-1, Humans 0-1, Norse 1-0)
Griff: 3-1 (Ogres 3-0, Imperials 0-1)
Hakflem 1.5-2.5 (Snots 1.5-1.5, Goblins 0-1)
Frank n Stein: 1-1 (Necro 0-1, Undead 1-0)
Karla von Kill: 1-1 (Lizzies 0-1, Woodies 1-0)
Akhorne: 0-1 (Pro Elves)
Wilhelm Chaney: 1-0 (Undead)
Eldril: 0-1 (Pro Elves)
Fungus: 1-0 (Chorfs)
Gloriel: 0-1 (Dark Elves)
Helmut: 0-1 (Khemri)
Varag: 0-1 (Orc)
Kreek 1-0 (Chaos)

Some notes:
Morg and Griff, the two stars who were used in Dark and Light qualifiers, both did better in Dark. Morg was 4.5-3.5 in Dark and 2-5 in Light, while Griff went 3-0 in Dark and 0-1 in Light. Overall, stars were 21.5-15.5 in Dark qualifiers and 4.5-11.5 in Light ones. Again, this is a small sample size, but quite lopsided results.

There was a lot more treasury-buying of stars in Dark, but it didn't work particularly well, with Bomber going 4.5-3.5 from treasury and Helmut 0-1. Interestingly, nobody did this in Light qualifiers. Light, for real; but also fewer cheap stars. Anecdotally, as someone who overbuys bomber often (although not in this sample), I think it's easy to overvalue him and lose control of the pitch. But he's also definitely OP.

About halfway through I began to wish I tracked Wizards too: I'm curious whether they're better than stars. My overall conclusion on stars is that Griff and Bomber are really good, Morg is a great way to make up 300k but it's always tough to be a heavy underdog (could say the same for Deeproot), and I'd guess the bad stars are worse than wizards. Overall, stars went 27-27. (Without Bomber this looks much worse.)

Lastly, on my UI qualifier and match today: GG to all of my opponents, I was very lucky to qualify over Amon's Chaos and especially over Sebco who very nearly beat me despite a horrible dicing. Bought bomber from behind in both games, and as I remember it he was pretty bad both times, but it didn't matter. Very exciting to christen the UI today, and thanks Nelphine, although the game itself was a bit of a beating, 5 skaven left by turn 5 or so (a Bomber overbuy win btw). Thanks for the game turboraton, gg.


Last edited by Astrolonim on Aug 29, 2022 - 22:01; edited 5 times in total
tussock



Joined: May 29, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 28, 2022 - 09:25 Reply with quote Back to top

Guardfirm MB dorfs, it turns out, do in fact slowly but surely beat the gob out of goblins, especially when they can't dodge all day, even the 2+ lad failed, and I had a scummed Wizard to settle the 2nd half, so, add to that Bomber loses one, and Wizard wins one.

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Java



Joined: Jan 27, 2018

Post   Posted: Aug 28, 2022 - 21:01 Reply with quote Back to top

Astrolonim wrote:
As promised, although slightly late:

Overall 51 stars were taken in Qualifiers for the UI.
I counted matches where it went to an OT kick-off as a draw (0.5-0.5).
Each of their records were (and keep in mind, these sample sizes are tiny):

Bomber: 10.5-4.5 (Underworld 4-0, Goblins 2-2, Chorfs 2-0, Ogres 1.5-.5, Orcs 0-2)
Morg: 5.5-7.5 (Zons 1-3, Snots 1.5-2.5, Underworld 2-0, Flings 0-1, Imperials 0-1, Woodies 1-0)
Deeproot: 1.5-2.5 (Dorfs 0.5-0.5, Flings 0-1, Humans 0-1, Norse 1-0)
Griff: 3-1 (Ogres 3-0, Imperials 0-1)
Hakflem 1.5-2.5 (Snots 1.5-1.5, Goblins 0-1)
Frank n Stein: 1-1 (Necro 0-1, Undead 1-0)
Karla von Kill: 1-1 (Lizzies 0-1, Woodies 1-0)
Akhorne: 0-1 (Pro Elves)
Wilhelm Chaney: 1-0 (Undead)
Eldril: 0-1 (Pro Elves)
Fungus: 1-0 (Chorfs)
Gloriel: 0-1 (Dark Elves)
Helmut: 0-1 (Khemri)
Varag: 0-1 (Orc)

Some notes:
Morg and Griff, the two stars who were used in Dark and Light qualifiers, both did better in Dark. Morg was 3.5-2.5 in Dark and 2-5 in Light, while Griff went 3-0 in Dark and 0-1 in Light. Overall, stars were 21.5-13.5 in Dark qualifiers and 4.5-11.5 in Light ones. Again, this is a small sample size, but very lopsided results.

There was a lot more treasury-buying of stars in Dark, but it didn't work particularly well, with Bomber going 4.5-2.5 from treasury (similar to his normal winrate), and Helmut 0-1. Interestingly, nobody did this in Light qualifiers. Light, for real; but also fewer cheap stars. Anecdotally, as someone who overbuys bomber often (although not in this sample), I think it's easy to overvalue him and lose control of the pitch. But he's also definitely OP.

About halfway through I began to wish I tracked Wizards too: I'm curious whether they're better than stars. My overall conclusion on stars is that Griff and Bomber are really good, Morg is a great way to make up 300k but it's always tough to be a heavy underdog (could say the same for Deeproot), and I'd guess the bad stars are worse than wizards. Overall, stars went 26-25. (Without Bomber this looks much worse.)

Lastly, on my UI qualifier and match today: GG to all of my opponents, I was very lucky to qualify over Amon's Chaos and especially over Sebco who very nearly beat me despite a horrible dicing. Bought bomber from behind in both games, and as I remember it he was pretty bad both times, but it didn't matter. Very exciting to christen the UI today, and thanks Nelphine, although the game itself was a bit of a beating, 5 skaven left by turn 5 or so (a Bomber overbuy win btw). Thanks for the game turboraton, gg.


Outstanding work, Astro!

I like your metrics, wish I'd done a similar thing when I gathered the same data for rumbles.

Just from what you wrote it seems stars do not impact Majors as much as they impact Rumbles.


I'll try to release my findings in a blog post soon, would you mind putting one out as well so it doesn't get lost in the forums?
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 28, 2022 - 23:20 Reply with quote Back to top

4 more games have been played!

and 3 of them I got wrong. my predictions are now 17% accurate! I'll take it!

congrats to Strider84 for winning again with ogres
Joost got his lizardmen through
Tussock was my only correct prediction with his dwarves
and lautrehamon weaseled his underworld on!
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 30, 2022 - 07:50 Reply with quote Back to top

2 more finished!

humans go through.. and Ogres. Ogres? people there are still TWO ogre teams in a major! what is happening??

congrats to captainmalkor and MolonLave!
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 30, 2022 - 10:52 Reply with quote Back to top

Nelphine wrote:
and Ogres. Ogres?

https://fumbbl.com/p/match?id=4401940 this is a remarkable game, make sure to watch the replay
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 01, 2022 - 02:00 Reply with quote Back to top

and PirateRob has made it through the last game of round 1, with norse! (meaning I got ... 3 out of 8 predictions right!)
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 01, 2022 - 02:03 Reply with quote Back to top

this leaves us with:

Chaos Dwarf vs ~~Norse~~
vs
Ogre vs ~~Human~~

vs

~~Dwarf~~ vs Lizardman
vs
~~Ogre~~ vs Underworld.

Yes you heard it correctly, ogres are the last race with multiple entries in the tournament!

to update my predictions (without changing anything)

My money is on the chaos dwarves beating the norse, only to lose to the humans (who beat the ogres).

On the other side, dwarves beat lizardmen, and then beat .. ogres. because of course ogres are making it to the semi-finals.

This leaves us with dwarves vs humans, and the humans win!


Last edited by Nelphine on Sep 07, 2022 - 16:58; edited 3 times in total
tussock



Joined: May 29, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 01, 2022 - 02:57 Reply with quote Back to top

The remaining 8 teams are ...

Image
Astrolinim's 37 game Chorfs, missing a Guardfirm, 11 players and 1360 or so +85k treasury. 24/7/6 record.
- Got the key skills, some guard, a DP, +MA baller/sacker Hob, Frenzy bull.

Image
PirateRob's 23 game Norse, missing a rookie ulf, 14 players and 1330 or so +290k treasury. 20/1/2 record.
- Slow but solid Yhetee, just one guard, cheap fouling boars, and a fair fast baller.

That'll be anyone's really, positioning key and both teams have good threats and counters for the other. Treasury to burn here has to be an advantage though.


Image
Strider84's 15 game Ogres, all present enough at 15 players at 1385 and +150k treasury. 8/5/2 Record.
- No block here, no stats, BT Dodge Ogre and a single sneaky git gnob stand out here.

Image
captainmalkor's 11 game Humans, barely scratched all 14 turning up at 1585 and +180k treasury. 11/0/0 Record!
- Pretty well developed for their age, just basic, good blood bowl here.

200k gap and treasury could give the Ogres what they need to stand a chance here, solid record but the humans just with the perfect run and might even think about saving their money for next round against some teams that handle humans a bit better.


Image
My own 16 game Dwarfs, missing a MB Blocker, 11 players at 1340k and 90k treasury. 9/6/1 record.
- 8x MB, 6x Guard, 3x Stand Firm, and a +AG runner. Disgusting!

Image
Joost's 19 game Lizards, missing a Block Saur and a Skink, 11 players at 1485k and 215k treasury. 13/4/2 record.
- just one rookie saur, Block Krox, couple Guards, fast surehanded blodge skink.

Only 11 mens on each team, 145k inducements for the Dorfs, simple draw in the guards and run around with the skinks tactics for the Lizards, and a block skink to play hunt the frog too. Tough day at the office if either team loses numbers.


Image
MolonLave's 30 game Ogres, missing a big Block Strong Arm, 15 players at 1615 TV and +100k treasury. 15/6/9 record.
- Still 3 Block Ogres, including the awesome +AG Blodge BT carrier Throne King, and a DP gnoblar!

Image
lautreahmon's 13 game Unders, all present, 14 players 1235 TV and +165k treasury. 10/2/1 record.
- Lots of claws, T/MB Blitzer, horned superstar gutter, big hand Gob.

That's a lovely 480k gap for the underworld, and Ogres can lose without much help from all that, but, not as bad as they once were, this is just a test for the Bigs, and the quality of the snotling and gnoblar screens, vs some pretty reliable little rats, who should be well protected.

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ImageImage
Strider84



Joined: Jun 03, 2009

Post   Posted: Sep 01, 2022 - 08:02 Reply with quote Back to top

thanks for the summary. captainmalkor's Human record is very impressive!
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 03, 2022 - 22:33 Reply with quote Back to top

and both of my predictions are out! ogres defeated humans, and lizardmen defeated dwarves! only one quarter final left!
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 07, 2022 - 16:59 Reply with quote Back to top

Chaos Dwarves win over the Norse

We now have

Chaos Dwarves - Astrolinim vs ~~Ogres~~ - Strider84

vs

~~Lizardmen~~ - Joost vs Underworld - lautrehamon

Semifinals!


Last edited by Nelphine on Sep 11, 2022 - 00:46; edited 1 time in total
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 10, 2022 - 17:18 Reply with quote Back to top

And lautrehamon's Underworld advance, defeating their cold blooded lizardmen rivals!
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Sep 11, 2022 - 00:46 Reply with quote Back to top

And on the other side, Astrolonim brings the Chaos Dwarves to the finals!
PirateRob



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Sep 11, 2022 - 18:29 Reply with quote Back to top

Shakes fist at those Chorfs!
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