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Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 26, 2022 - 17:01 Reply with quote Back to top

Interesting concept. How many stars are in your league? RAW there are 48 stars, so I feel like you couldn't expect most of them to be chosen regularly, so it would be hard to apply?
koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: Dec 26, 2022 - 17:40 Reply with quote Back to top

Sounds like something that could be scriptable.

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Star Only Roster - Testing
mekutata



Joined: May 03, 2015

Post   Posted: Dec 27, 2022 - 08:57 Reply with quote Back to top

Nelphine wrote:
Interesting concept. How many stars are in your league? RAW there are 48 stars, so I feel like you couldn't expect most of them to be chosen regularly, so it would be hard to apply?


I think it's 49

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mekutata



Joined: May 03, 2015

Post   Posted: Dec 27, 2022 - 08:57 Reply with quote Back to top

koadah wrote:
Sounds like something that could be scriptable.


I need you to join our leeg.. if just for the scripts.

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KidCrestHill



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Dec 29, 2022 - 11:11 Reply with quote Back to top

Was a good late night Kid woke me up read
Garion26



Joined: Nov 28, 2021

Post   Posted: Dec 29, 2022 - 18:52 Reply with quote Back to top

I know you've made a conscious decision to make loner 'free' but feels like that over estimates cost effectiveness significantly particularly for players whose skills set involves high importance rolls.

Bomber Dribblesnote vs a +PA/ Pass / Accurate rostered Bomma is where I started wondering about how much loner matters in cost assessment. There is no question he's very good for the cost. Interestingly he has a reroll built in for the roll that most matters (throwing a bomb!) - so loner shouldnt matter in cost assessment.

The chainsaw star players on the other hand or the Ball and Chain players roll dice every time they 'do their thing' and don't (IIRC at least given that there are a lot) have a reroll built in for the Chainsaw activation roll or the block dice. That's a place where the loner seems to matter a lot.

Not a complaint but a question on how we should think about the cost effectiveness and if the stats are enough to understand how valuable a given star would be. A Guard player does their thing without usually rolling dice (and Estelle has dodge) whereas a hitty player tends to need to roll dice in some cases without block.
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 29, 2022 - 20:08 Reply with quote Back to top

Right, but two things. One, this is how stars were 'priced' in 2016, and I want to keep that tradition. Two, stars should naturally be slightly worse than an equivalently built player - you can buy them on demand, so the downside is, they come with Loner.

If you happen to see stars where loner does NOT impact them at all (such as a guard player), I'd be willing to give them a slight expected cost increase because stars natural loner doesn't impact them as much.

However, note that with guard stars, i've already priced them both as if guard was a secondary - specifically because of how good guard is on a star - which is specifically different than most stars who get skills as if they are primaries, even if it isn't for their baseline player (for instance, griffs 'sure feet'). So I have already accounted for that cost increase on the 2 guard stars. If you see others, let me know please.
Garion26



Joined: Nov 28, 2021

Post   Posted: Dec 30, 2022 - 16:01 Reply with quote Back to top

Again not a critique but just pondering the data. An the Bomber vs a non loner player question is where I really started to think about what the data suggests.

I look at Bomber and think is there any situation where I would willingly build/keep a 125K bomba on the goblin/snotling roster. I get it the skills would be X cost theoretically but a similarly skilled player would never be worth that X cost to me to put on the roster. Maybe at 60-80K for a rostered goblin secret weapon player?

Not sure what that means for the analysis but it makes me wonder if the math of expected price for Bomber isn't accounting for something.,
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 30, 2022 - 17:18 Reply with quote Back to top

well, what you're really talking about is 'are baseline players, and skill costs, actually good?'

to which the answer is almost always no.

however, i'm specifically trying to avoid the subjective world of 'how much should players/skills actually cost', and going with the objective 'this is how much they cost in the current ruleset'.


But i'm trying to pick costs for the skills on stars to reflect how good the actual star is. So I chose primary for sure feet on Griff, but I didn't choose random primary. I chose +60 for hypnotic gaze for an agi 2+ player, but only +50 for an agi 3+ player. These choices are meant to reflect how good the player is, while still using the pricing system that exists.

So, if you find that a particular player's expected value is wrong, I DO want that feedback.

For your specific feedback, I think bomber at 110k is absolutely still a bargain - particularly compared to the chainsaws, who are just much much worse. I don't think you can justify a chainsaw being lower than 90k, cindy is better than a chainsaw (so 100k) and bomber is better than cindy (so 110k).
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 30, 2022 - 18:23 Reply with quote Back to top

ok, i've done some significant editting, and added a 4th group
Garion26



Joined: Nov 28, 2021

Post   Posted: Dec 30, 2022 - 19:29 Reply with quote Back to top

Nelphine wrote:


For your specific feedback, I think bomber at 110k is absolutely still a bargain - particularly compared to the chainsaws, who are just much much worse. I don't think you can justify a chainsaw being lower than 90k, cindy is better than a chainsaw (so 100k) and bomber is better than cindy (so 110k).


Can I continue the discussion on chainsaws? Maybe I'm in the minority but I actually tend to make the looney the last secret weapon I add to a goblin team given the chainsaw roll and the fact it's effectively AV 5+ if being blocked. That's at 70K without loner. It feels like chainsaw stars aren't a common pick outside of rare blodge AV 8+ matchups or 'for the fun of it.' Certainly tournament builds almost never see them except for newer coaches. All that argues that chainsaws aren't seen as attractive additions to the roster.

If I'm not willing to take a rostered chainsaw at 70K (on a team with a lot of secret weapons competing for bribes mind you) I'd wonder if the price of stars could/should be lower then 90K.

Again just discussing the theoretical baseline assumptions in the model. (Not arguing against the idea of modeling!)
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 30, 2022 - 20:47 Reply with quote Back to top

Sure, but all the stars have something that's noticeably better than a looney - blodge, str4 (so they are much harder to block), special skills that enhance chainsaw use, stand firm so a push doesn't prevent them from hitting back.

So, I agree a 70k rostered saw isn't worth it, but a 90k super saw, in my opinion, would be worth it. Of course, most saw stars are currently 130k, not 90k, so even as a super saw, I still dont think they're worth it.
Wolbum



Joined: Jul 14, 2010

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2022 - 00:33 Reply with quote Back to top

Just to add my 2 cents to the chainsaw discussion. While they are costly in and of themselves compared to a potentially rostered chainsaw, I do think they have their uses. Particularly the psychological effect by just being on the pitch, can make an opponent play differently especially if the coach is reserved in their use of them. High risk pieces still sure, not to mention not exactly the best value for money, but they have their use.
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Dec 31, 2022 - 01:02 Reply with quote Back to top

Sure, and if you need that role filled, it can be worth it to hire them. But a wizard almost always has far better psychological impacts, and a bribe is usually far more effective. I would never recommend a saw to anyone unless their opponent is av8+, has lots of blodge, AND the coach considering a saw has absolutely no tackle.
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Jan 04, 2023 - 01:20 Reply with quote Back to top

massive edit updated.

changed format, removed the +10% as it just confused things, and tweaked a few stars
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