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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Aug 08, 2022 - 14:57 Reply with quote Back to top

Well for all you Box trophy coaches and fans, it is back and up and running.

So get your 4 team squad formed up and storm the Box once again and see if you can climb the mountain.

Box trophy season #6<<< hit this link for rules and squad creation.

Have fun.

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Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 09, 2022 - 15:10 Reply with quote Back to top

Image

Data is based on koadah's stats site: http://fumbbldata.azurewebsites.net/stats.html

The 'Expected' column is 15x the 'Percentage' column from the stats page, which is 1x Win-rate + 0.5x the Draw-rate
So this shows the expected amount of Trophy Points an average Competitive coach woud earn for that race in 15 games

The 'Cost' column is how many points it takes to recruit that team into your squad


-Amazons are the best team but cost 3 points. Underworld are 2nd best, Undead 3rd
-Snotlings are best in the 2-point bracket. Dark Elf 2nd best, Norse 3rd
-Wood Elf are best in the 1-point bracket. Chaos 2nd, OWA 3rd
-Goblins are best in the 0-point bracket



There's several ways you can build a 7-point squad, shown in the columns on the right:
2+2+2+1 points teams = Snotlings + Dark Elf + Norse + Wood Elf
3+2+1+1 points teams = Amazon + Snotlings + Wood Elf + Chaos
3+2+2+0 points teams = Amazon + Snotlings + Dark Elf + Goblins
3+3+1+0 points teams = Amazon + Underworld + Wood Elf + Goblins


The totals along the bottom show that 3+3+1+0 has the highest combined score, so the strongest squad would be: Amazon + Underworld + Wood Elf + Goblins

Bear in mind though, the margins are really quite small, 1-2 wins over the course of the 60 game run.

More important than these stats would be your own familiarity and skill with each roster, so hopefully this gives you some ideas but don't let it completely control what you pick.
For example, I would much rather play Dark Elves over Snots, and the stat difference is tiny. I don't want to play Amazons so I'd take Underworld instead. Play what you want and what you enjoy
Christer



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 09, 2022 - 15:54
FUMBBL Staff
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That's pretty cool, but you should take into account the ability to not use all 7 points of the budget and undercost. If I read your data correctly, you're expected to get 9.8 for 15 amazon games. For a dark elf team, you'd get 7.7 plus 2.5 for the point of unused budget, or 10.2.
At the best of the 1 point tier, Wood Elves would be 7.2 + 5, or 12.2 points expected (replacing a 3 point cost team). And Goblins would be 5.9 + 7.5 = 13.4 points expected.

All this assumes the base stats are applicable to the blackbox environment. We'll see how it pans out and I'll adjust the scoring for season 7 based on overall results of season 6.
koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: Aug 09, 2022 - 16:13 Reply with quote Back to top

Christer wrote:

All this assumes the base stats are applicable to the blackbox environment. We'll see how it pans out and I'll adjust the scoring for season 7 based on overall results of season 6.


As you guess, the data is all competitive division games not just Scheduler ones.

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Ohwatch



Joined: Sep 14, 2014

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2022 - 04:38 Reply with quote Back to top

" Having a team with the highest points for that roster awards 1.5 additional points "

Playing or Winning?
tussock



Joined: May 29, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2022 - 08:01 Reply with quote Back to top

Christer wrote:
That's pretty cool, but you should take into account the ability to not use all 7 points of the budget and undercost. If I read your data correctly, you're expected to get 9.8 for 15 amazon games. For a dark elf team, you'd get 7.7 plus 2.5 for the point of unused budget, or 10.2.


Just a note, that in previous trophies, 25-game seasons gave 2.5 per unspent point of team buying, and 15-game seasons gave 1.5 per.

This is a 15-game season giving 2.5 per point, which may have been a simple error, rather than intentional.

There's a lot more equal value in the teams across the board at 1.5 per unspent point.

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Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2022 - 12:53 Reply with quote Back to top

All good points, I will swerve addressing them at all because I phrased it as "There's several ways you can build a 7-point squad" and "strongest squad" Smile
historic



Joined: Dec 01, 2017

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2022 - 13:53 Reply with quote Back to top

Hello,
After created 4 teams, how to play a match? I do not see the button activate for next round.

Kind regards
Rawlf



Joined: Jul 15, 2007

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2022 - 14:43 Reply with quote Back to top

Use the gamefinder, box is integrated into it now.
PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2022 - 15:30 Reply with quote Back to top

historic wrote:
Hello,
After created 4 teams, how to play a match? I do not see the button activate for next round.

Kind regards


Did you figure it out yet? How to activate schedule/box matches on GameFinder?

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2022 - 15:34 Reply with quote Back to top

This is driving me nutz...Technically the Box is dead as a DIV. So, matches are now called scheduled games....Can we still just call it Box matches for us old guys...Iam getting tired of having to call it scheduled for the new guys and then defining that for the old guys and call it box.

You know what...Iam just going to call it box and move on. Even though deep down I know it is called scheduled or fixed schedule matches for teams in the Box trophy or elect to do it because of preference of play style.

Side note...How do you actually select if your team is Fixed Schedule, Mix or Pick only? I looked around and cant find it.

Foot note: In the big picture of C div...who would actually select Pick only? It seems to me if you want to pick or select your match you would always choose Mixed. That way you have the option for both match making choices (select or schedule). Does that make sense? Are there guys who 100% refuse to enter the box and play a game randomly?

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HimalayaP1C7



Joined: Feb 03, 2021

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2022 - 15:53 Reply with quote Back to top

You can switch modes whenever you like (except for Blackbox Trophy teams who have to stay on their mode). So you'd use the "Open" mode (soon to be renamed as simply "Gamefinder only") when you want to make / accept offers on that team, but also enter the Blackbox draw with other teams. I'm not sure, maybe its good for a team that needs a recovery game.
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 11, 2022 - 17:56 Reply with quote Back to top

Sp00keh wrote:
All good points, I will swerve addressing them at all

To actually address this,
The cheapest squad you can select is 1+0+0+0 = Wood Elves + Goblins + Vampires + Ogres

They earn 15 bonus points before even playing a game, and 24.54 expected points from the games, for a total of 39.54 which makes this the best squad
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 11, 2022 - 18:12 Reply with quote Back to top

Another issue is, how much should the bonus points be worth?

At 2.5 bonus points per unused selection point, there's a big gap between different teams
The best performing would be 0-point Goblins, they earn 7.5 bonus and 5.96 from games = 13.47 total
The worst performing would be 3-point Dwarves, they earn 0 bonus and 8.15 from games = 8.15 total
Goblins earn 165% of what Dwarves do


If we reduce the bonus point factor, then the percentage spread gap narrows
The balance point comes where the difference between best and worst is at its lowest, this means a balance between the 2 factors of 'roster winningness' vs 'bonus point harvesting'

The balance point is 1.1 to 1.2 bonus points per unused selection point

Image


Say we use 1.0 instead because it's simpler, then the strongest squad goes back to 3+3+1+0 = Amazon + Underworld + Wood Elf + Goblins
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 11, 2022 - 18:43 Reply with quote Back to top

right, but recall part of the reason for the trophy is to increase variety. so we want to encourage people to use races that aren't played as much. so you wouldn't want to drop the points to where all teams are roughly equal.
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