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Nightbird



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 08, 2015 - 00:22 Reply with quote Back to top

What breaking new? I heard the stuff this morning about the DK guy who played and won a ton on FD. Is that what you're on about or has MOAR happened???

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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Oct 08, 2015 - 18:18 Reply with quote Back to top

NY Attorney General is bringing the heat now. There was another article on Deadspin about how language preserving fantasy sports was inserted into a defense bill around 2007 while Poker sites were being flogged and run out of the US.

http://deadspin.com/here-are-the-letters-new-yorks-attorney-general-just-se-1735097526

http://deadspin.com/the-daily-fantasy-nightmare-is-here-because-the-nfl-mad-1734882560

I try not to get too political on this forum and this is a problem that reaches across both parties but the W Presidency seems like it was set up exclusively to be a vacation for lobbyists to cash government paychecks and craft policy that benefited those with so much already.

Surprisingly John Warner (R-VA) was against this kind of malarky being put on a defense bill despite representing the pork craving interests of the military industrial complex of Virginia.

Witcherman worked for the Whitehouse then after W went back to his law firm where the NFL was one of their clients and he a lobbyist on behalf of the NFL.

This is what political corruption and rent seeking looks like and despite this our news media prefers to run viral video coverage and focus on bush league scams.

/end rant
PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 08, 2015 - 23:44 Reply with quote Back to top

Well, you always have to remember under W defense spending was when everyone went hog wild to put in their special interest bills.

Dems and Reps always crammed the defense bill with thousands of special interest "riders".

Politics...ugh

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 08, 2015 - 23:49 Reply with quote Back to top

What a different universe the USA would be if a bill was passed "clean" with out all the hundreds of "riders" tacked on at the end.

Cruz went off on that subject 2 years ago when they slid some Obamacare overrides on the backend and realized there was no way to stop them. Set him off on another one of his 8 hour rants at the podium of the senate.

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mrt1212



Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Post   Posted: Oct 09, 2015 - 04:14 Reply with quote Back to top

This is why I support Sharia Law - No pork Wink
Nightbird



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 09, 2015 - 13:44 Reply with quote Back to top

Argh politics! Anyone got any sleepers this week? I'm thinking of using mariotta. Am I crazy???

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"There's something out there waiting for us & it ain't no man...we're all gonna die."
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Nightbird



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 11, 2015 - 19:30 Reply with quote Back to top

Alright, just to share & get critque, here are the two lineups I've set so far at DK's this week 10/11/15:

$20 Entry

QB- Brady $7800
RB- L. Bell $8500
RB- T. Gurley $4300
WR- J. Edelman $7000
WR- L. Fitzgerald $6800
WR- W. Snead $3000
TE- A. Gates $4200
Flex- T.Y. Yeldon $4400
DEF- Broncos $3600
TOTAL SALARY= $49600

$5 Entry
QB- M. Mariota $6000
RB- L. Bell $8500
RB- T. Gurley $4300
WR- K. Wright $5400
WR- J. Maclin $6000
WR- L. Fitzgerald $6800
TE- M. Bennett $5000
Flex- T.Y. Yeldon $4400
DEF- Broncos $3600
TOTAL SALARY= $50000

What are you using & what do you think of my choices?

*Edit: Mariota/ Wright combo a total failure...

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"There's something out there waiting for us & it ain't no man...we're all gonna die."
Disclaimer: I rarely, if ever, revisit forum threads I post within. Enjoy!
huff



Joined: Dec 19, 2009

Post   Posted: Oct 12, 2015 - 04:04 Reply with quote Back to top

I used a lot of Bortles, Gurley, Bell, Lewis and Clay this week... Clay killed me. And also not having any Doug Martin killed me.
Nightbird



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 17, 2015 - 23:24 Reply with quote Back to top

Decided to try & up my bankroll this week by entering a few lower volume leagues, including a $25 double-up, as well as try for the really big bucks in a few high volume leagues. Putting out $98 in entry fee's this week, but that means I'm only really putting out $4 as I've won $94 so far. And really, after the week is over I will earn $3 more matching dollars so I'm only out $1 if I wiff totally. Seems this is what the big boys do to build so I'm doing it too!

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licker



Joined: Jul 10, 2009

Post   Posted: Oct 18, 2015 - 20:59 Reply with quote Back to top

Just curious about your alls opinions.

My feeling is that these one day leagues are basically scams, and it seems that they *have* been in the past.

But largely, even if they are not scams, they are still ultimately just a money sink. No matter how smart you think you are about NFL, you're not smart enough, and you're trying to beat the masses, making it almost a lottery anyway.

Now, for entertainment I've no issues about spending money, so I'm not trying to make a claim that anyone playing these things is a sucker. I'm really just curious about how people who do play these things think about them.

Do you honestly believe you can beat the masses? Or is it just a fun way to pass your Sundays?
PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2015 - 17:06 Reply with quote Back to top

licker wrote:

Do you honestly believe you can beat the masses? Or is it just a fun way to pass your Sundays?


Well, you have 2 camps of players on these DFS sites.

#1 the casual Sunday type player like myself were it is for small money and for fun. You pick small field leagues playing against 1 or 5 or 10 players. You are playing for cut of a small slice of pie. It is not about the money but to have fun.

#2 the Pro DFS player. DraftKings as and example has a cap of 100K you can bet/play each day. On Sunday there were a lot of the 100K guys who entered hundreds of leagues. For them this is about money. They invest 100k and hope to get a 15%+ ROI on that 100k. They will have hundreds of lineups flame out but if 10% of their lineups perform well and depending on the tournament...they could have a huge pay day.

Of course they do not talk about the 3 weeks straight of losing 50k+ each week.


Now for use casual fans who play there is one hang up. Because these sites "rake" you do not get full payback on a win. Example: a 5$ Head to Head match on DK will win you 9$ or 4$ profit.

Because of the rake you now have to win OVER 50% of your games to generate a profit. Otherwise you get "raked" out of your bank roll.

That is were the DFS sucks your money for the casual player. Even though you are only playing $1 or 5$ tournament the rake will eat your money up inless you have a few good weeks of winning 50+% of your matches.

BTW: Yes it is gambling and if you are a person who has a gambling addiction type personality, it will suck you so far in and then spit you out and they will take all your money.

In week #5 I was up 68$ until L.Bell of the Steelers on Monday night went off on the last drive and destroyed me. I went fromm up 68$ to down 25$ in the span of about 5 minutes on the final drive of the game.

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2015 - 17:10 Reply with quote Back to top

Sorry i did not get back to you nightbird about your lineups. I was very busy this weekend.


BTW my lineup this weekend was a disaster of the highest order and went down in flames. So through 6Weeks Iam down to 20$ after depositing 100$. Need to rally this week and come up with some magic.

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 19, 2015 - 17:13 Reply with quote Back to top

@NightBird

Hey man do you use any of the free roster optimizer's that are out there? Play around with them on different lineups and so forth?

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Nightbird



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 24, 2015 - 18:42 Reply with quote Back to top

PainState wrote:
@NightBird

Hey man do you use any of the free roster optimizer's that are out there? Play around with them on different lineups and so forth?


No, I actually didn't even know those were available. I do it the old fashioned way & check defensive stats & such while looking at potential players for my team for the week. Can you provide a Draft Kings link to that?

On another note, & after being around the draftkings site for near a month & wrapping my brain around all this, I've noticed these double-up leagues could be a good way to build up serious bank or just use to build up extra savings each year for yourself. I'm going to start w/ a $100 & $25 dollar double-up leagues this week & see how high I can get that money up to by the end of the season.

I mean if you can earn an extra 10k for yourself each year doing this why the hell not? I know it's a risk as these double-up leagues only pay out 45% on average, but do some math & if you do your homework each week you can make some serious bank. I just prefer to be modest w/ this kinda stuff. It's when you get too big of eyes for the prize that you get in trouble.

I plan to play the 1 million for 1st each week. The odds, if you are a good FFB player, are better than the lottery after all.

As for my week 6. I'll just say this: Eddie Lacy/ Dion Lewis/Richard Rogers...I did, however, win my $25 double-up league so I still made $50 back last week out of the $98 I wagered. And I'm still +$50 for the year.

Anyways any thoughts on my thoughts.

P.S. @ licker: When I first laid eyes on the 'contests lobby' page on Draft Kings (Note: I was a craps dealer for 5 years) my initial thought was 'WOW how the hell is this legal!?!?'.

What I'd really like to know is who does the extra cash from each league go to & can I get in on that side of this whole thing? For example: I join a $1000 double-up league. It has a limit of 85 entries, giving it a total buy in of 85K & a pay out of 80K to the top 40 entries. Where does that 5K (5.9%) go? Draft Kings? Individual league commissioners?

Also, using the above example, if a contest does not fill to 100% capacity is it still the top 40 entries getting a double-up? If so that's even better odds!

Edit: After doing a bit of maths. If I rolled over my $125 investment through week 17, keeping in mind DK's limits, I'd have 228k at the end of the regualar season. Of course this all is based on being in that top 45% each week, but that's an aweful lot of money to make in 11 weeks! Seems the biggest double-ups are 1K though so you'd have to put in alot of entries each week & I'm not sure if there are league volume entry limits per person. In any case, a 45% chance of doing that, if you have the balls to roll it over each week, are pretty damn good considering all other types of bets/ lottery's & their odds. Especially when you have the type of control DFFB gives you over your rosters too.

_________________
"There's something out there waiting for us & it ain't no man...we're all gonna die."
Disclaimer: I rarely, if ever, revisit forum threads I post within. Enjoy!
Nightbird



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 31, 2015 - 12:45 Reply with quote Back to top

Ok, so week 7 update. I put out $150 (6 entries) into the massive $25 double-up on draftkings. I used the same roster w/ all entries. I'm @ $300 bankroll for week 8. I plan to use $275 of it on the same double up this week & if all goes right I'll be at $550 bankroll for next week & so on. Not sure how far I'll take it, but I'd like to try & make a nice chunk of change for my savings account this season while still taking out $20 each week for an entry into the 1 million league using a separate roster. How's everyone else doing? I seem to be the only one posting updates so if none are keen on sharing this will likely be my last post.

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"There's something out there waiting for us & it ain't no man...we're all gonna die."
Disclaimer: I rarely, if ever, revisit forum threads I post within. Enjoy!
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