PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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 Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 15:17 |
 
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| maysrill wrote: | Results like 30:1 and 8:1 would only make sense if one of the coaches didn't know how to play the game. With veteran (not even exceptional) coaches, I'd lay money on almost anything that showed more than about 1.5:1.
How about this for fun: Assume I take the underdog on anything you predict at more than 2:1. Assume a "bet" of 1 unit, and we'll see how I fare by the end of round 1. |
Oh very nice. maysrill is obviously from the "old school" and gets Milfords daily tweet updates. He does not trust this "new math" way of predicting. I will be interested in seeing how this all plays out. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 15:18 |
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MMM...just thought of a strange idea.
I set up a twitter account under Milford and offer up daily tweets. I dont know, that sounds like total geek stuff to me. |
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King_Ghidra
Joined: Sep 14, 2009
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 15:21 |
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Would be awesome, imho.
Although you might struggle with a mere 140 characters  |
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Enigma179
Joined: Sep 19, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 15:23 |
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| propuppetmaster wrote: | lol
maysrill knows that the upsets happen in round 1 but what does enigma get?...1 unit for Enigma as well if he is correct? |
I take 1 unit of his cash, and then if the team he bets on (at 2 to 1 against) wins, he gets his 1 unit back, plus twice as much as he gave me (2 units), meaning he has a total of 3 units if he wins, and he loses his 1 unit if he loses.
So I could do the favoured ones but... well there's a lot of them, and chances are one or two matches would finish while I was halfway through, so I'll stick to champion matches and the big boys aside from requests.
Enigma's Betting Stall!
happygrue: 1 unit on Battlefrogs (Battlefrogs vs. Sons of Grungni) at 2.56 to 1 odds.
maysrill: 1 unit on:
Mr. Memes (Mr. Memes vs. Manic Fury) at 2.02 to 1
MotherBird (MotherBird vs. WMD's in the Box) at 2.55 to 1
Pile up! (Pile up! vs. Principi) at 35.15 to 1
Storkottarna (Storkottarna vs. Sagome di Carto) at 3.22 to 1
Horny Chaos II (Horny Chaos II vs. Ghastly Tactics) at 2.19 to 1
Battlefrogs (Sons of Grungni vs. Battlefrogs) at 2.56 to 1
Khost (Khost vs. Planet Pain Decaying) at 2.02 to 1
CPombination (Pro Popes vs. CPombination) at 2.79 to 1
Nosferatu's Nightmares (Nosferatu's Nightmares vs. Laget runt!) at 2.37 to 1
Sporting Khan-ri's (Sporting Khan-ri's vs. Cheese'n Roll) at 8.04 to 1
And Milford, I'm sure your brand of predictions would work reasonably well if not better in the box, feel free to lay down a bet or two, maybe a few predictions of your own, and see if you can beat the spreadsheet! |
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. And like that, *poof*... he's gone |
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maysrill
Joined: Dec 29, 2008
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 15:35 |
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| propuppetmaster wrote: | lol
maysrill knows that the upsets happen in round 1 but what does enigma get?...1 unit for Enigma as well if he is correct? |
Heh, yeah, with Enigma acting as house, he is implicitly taking the odds on any of these. If you assume he is acting as a proper "house" and taking a ~10% cut either way, I'll even accept that my winning are chopped 10% (since he is presumably accepting bets on the favorites as well, it seems un-businesslike for him to give exact reciprocal odds going both ways).
Enigma's other post explains well how the "bet" system works.
As far as all the upsets in round 1, I'm counting on it in my own game as well, where the spreadsheet seems to think SvenS' speedy, agile, muscle-orcs are going to withstand my chipper/shredder assault for the win. |
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Tarabaralla
Joined: Jul 24, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 15:37 |
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Another record for my vamps, greatest bet ratio ever!
Anyway:
Are you ready for predictions?
Rules
I'd like to start a prediction challenge, like the one we got for the last Black Cup: losers have to play (i.e. reach at least 10 match played) a ridiculous team in Blackbox. Everyone will lose except the one(s) reaching the highest amount of right predictions.
To enter the challenge it's just needed to post a list of Qualifier winners and the team you're going to play in case of loss. I'll post mine soon, deadline for predictions is Wednesday 11th at 22.00 bbtime, hurry up!
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Here the link with the code for your predictions
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Predictions List:
Hitonagashi's prediction
Tarabaralla's prediction
SvenS' prediction
Azure's prediction
Emeric's prediction |
Last edited by Tarabaralla on %b %07, %2012 - %16:%Apr; edited 10 times in total |
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pubstar
Joined: Jun 13, 2009
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 15:41 |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 15:43 |
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I like the idea
the 6 teams at low TV who win the least are (in order best to worst) Slann, Underworld, Vampire, Halfling, Goblin, Ogre
maybe run the predictions challenge every major, or every round? and you're not allowed to make the predictions again until you've played your forfeit games |
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Enigma179
Joined: Sep 19, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 15:54 |
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| maysrill wrote: | | propuppetmaster wrote: | lol
maysrill knows that the upsets happen in round 1 but what does enigma get?...1 unit for Enigma as well if he is correct? |
Heh, yeah, with Enigma acting as house, he is implicitly taking the odds on any of these. If you assume he is acting as a proper "house" and taking a ~10% cut either way, I'll even accept that my winning are chopped 10% (since he is presumably accepting bets on the favorites as well, it seems un-businesslike for him to give exact reciprocal odds going both ways).
Enigma's other post explains well how the "bet" system works.
As far as all the upsets in round 1, I'm counting on it in my own game as well, where the spreadsheet seems to think SvenS' speedy, agile, muscle-orcs are going to withstand my chipper/shredder assault for the win. |
Well naturally you can bet the other way, yes, but I won't bother posting the numbers there because decimals aren't pretty.
And sure thing, I'll take a 10% cut of all winnings, naturally  |
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. And like that, *poof*... he's gone |
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happygrue
Joined: Oct 15, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 16:02 |
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Tarabaralla: Do they have to be new teams? I've got some flings in the box already with a handful of games. (and of course vamps and Slann) Though I guess I've been looking for an excuse to try an underworld team... 
I'd also suggest that any teams in such a challenge aim to place in the blackbox sprint (that is, make it up to 1800 TV for at least one game). |
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Come join us in #metabox, the Discord channel for HLP, ARR, and E.L.F. in the box!
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 16:04 |
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| Enigma179 wrote: | | And sure thing, I'll take a 10% cut of all winnings, naturally |
Ah, so the truth finally comes out. These are not predictions for the "love" of the game. This is a money making project. Typical that the box once again resorts to its natural state and corrupts the fun and excitment of match up predictions. Metagames the prediction buissnes down to a hustle for money.
Might as well just put the predictions on a recorder and have the fans call in to see what the spreadsheet predicts and rake in the 5$ a call fee.
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Tarabaralla
Joined: Jul 24, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 16:10 |
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| happygrue wrote: | Tarabaralla: Do they have to be new teams? I've got some flings in the box already with a handful of games. (and of course vamps and Slann) Though I guess I've been looking for an excuse to try an underworld team...
I'd also suggest that any teams in such a challenge aim to place in the blackbox sprint (that is, make it up to 1800 TV for at least one game). |
Any team, if prone-to-failure enough, is accepted! Predictions are about the qualifiers' winners, not every round (since this would be way too time-consuming!). Go checking those teams and predict! |
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Hitonagashi
Joined: Apr 09, 2006
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 16:25 |
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| Tarabaralla wrote: |
To enter the challenge it's just needed to post a list of Qualifier winners and the team you're going to play in case of loss. I'll post mine soon, deadline for predictions is Wednesday 11th at 22.00 bbtime, harry up!
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Real gamblers bet before they know the outcome of the games!
My Predictions:
Favoured of Tzeentch - As much as I want to go for the former Favoured of Khorne, Prey for Death, I just can't see anyone getting past the admin-client that PeteW and Wacky Racers Return bring to the table.
Chosen of Tzeentch - Can I just say the winner of CD Collection and -Green Rage-? I have to pick? Fine, I'm going with -Green Rage-.
Favoured of Khorne - They say to always bet against yourself, especially when you have Malmir and his Four Sprung Dwarf Technique as a potential opponent to get past. That said, self confidence has never been something I'm short on, so I'm going to doom myself and bet on my own Lustrian Lanterns to win their first major qualifier.
Chosen of Khorne - So many good choices here. But...when it all comes down to it..Stinky Evil will be too smelly, too huge, and too lethal for the rest.
Favoured of Nurgle - Wood Elves or Dwarves? Ball or Bash? Bash - Speyside Brewers.
Chosen of Nurgle - Dolls, Booahl, Azure in a qualifier? Along with the bash of Cpombination and the ball of Black Sithi? Certainly the one to watch out of all of the qualifiers...but I'm betting on Dolls and Pro Popes. Just have to hope that Cbomb don't do too much damage to them first round!
Chosen of Slaanesh - And coming in a close second, the second best qualifier to spectate. Plenty of high TV clawbomb from chaos and chaos dwarves, some qualifier winning Slann, some nice dwarves. None of them will however stand up to the might and statfreaks of Principi
Favoured of Slaanesh - Plenty of teams, 50 applied, but only 16 could come! Out of all of those, I'm going for the chessmasters...the Positional Dwarves.
My Wager:
Not 25 games again! That took me at least 3 weeks of goblins! Halflings, 10 games. |
Last edited by Hitonagashi on %b %05, %2012 - %16:%Apr; edited 1 time in total |
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GronxWild
Joined: Jan 22, 2012
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 16:28 |
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Tonight, 23:00 GMT+1 at FUMBBLTV one of closest games according to enigma's prediction!!
Don t miss the kick-off!!!!
see how the best pixels ever from the noob trainer GronxWild get bleed on the pitch!!!
'I grew up those puppys just to see them die on the way to a mayor'
-GronxWild- |
Last edited by GronxWild on %b %05, %2012 - %17:%Apr; edited 1 time in total |
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Tarabaralla
Joined: Jul 24, 2010
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| Posted:
Apr 05, 2012 - 16:48 |
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I add this to help whoever is going to accept the challenge but it's lazier than Hitonagashi
Noobish alert: the "http://url" text should be changed with the picked team url. And do NOT copy the "code" writing at the beginning or none of the links will work!
| Code: |
[color=#bf0000][b][size=18]My predictions:[/size][/b][/color]
[url=https://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=group&op=view&group=7209&p=tournaments][b]Khorne Qualifiers:[/b][/url]
Favoured Of Khorne:[url=http://url]*your prediction*[/url]
Champion Of Khorne:[url=http://url]*your prediction*[/url]
[url=https://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=group&op=view&group=7210&p=tournaments][b]Tzeentch Qualifiers[/b][/url]
Favoured Of Tzeentch:[url=http://url]*your prediction*[/url]
Champion Of Tzeentch:[url=http://url]*your prediction*[/url]
[url=https://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=group&op=view&group=7211&p=tournaments][b]Nurgle Qualifiers[/b][/url]
Favoured Of Nurgle:[url=http://url]*your prediction*[/url]
Champion Of Nurgle:[url=http://url]*your prediction*[/url]
[url=https://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=group&op=view&group=7212&p=tournaments][b]Slaanesh Qualifiers[/b][/url]
Favoured Of Slaanesh:[url=http://url]*your prediction*[/url]
Champion Of Slaanesh:[url=http://url]*your prediction*[/url]
[b]My Wager:[/b]
Playing [url=http://url]*team you're gonna play*[/url]
[url=http://fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphpBB2&file=viewtopic&p=505201#505201]Link to the main post[/url]
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Last edited by Tarabaralla on %b %05, %2012 - %19:%Apr; edited 4 times in total |
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Gnomes are trash
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