happygrue
Joined: Oct 15, 2010
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 Posted:
Jan 25, 2013 - 14:49 |
 
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The number, the title, and the actual skill don't always line up at the same point. Sometimes one or more of them is a bit off.
(I only found this by looking at past major winners recently, and yes I know it's just because he hasn't played in a while, but it's still amusing) |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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Jan 25, 2013 - 15:03 |
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| Woodstock wrote: | | Variable? I always thought there were standard K values for tournaments. |
I really don't know. It's all top secret now isn't it? I thought you'd let something slip. 
You used to get a K bonus for tournaments but I thought that was taken out.
If you win a Major you should be a Legend whatever your CR says. |
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Woodstock
Joined: Dec 11, 2004
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Jan 25, 2013 - 15:04 |
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I doubt I know more then any of you  |
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maysrill
Joined: Dec 29, 2008
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Jan 25, 2013 - 15:14 |
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| koadah wrote: |
If you win a Major you should be a Legend whatever your CR says. |
I dispute this one. Coach skill is only a modifier to your odds of winning a major, it's still heavily luck-based. Plenty of mediocre coaches have won majors.
(now after winning two...probably not a fluke)
ANYWAY...it's much like the FIDE ranking system (which you can google), at least in general concept. The bigger the disparity in CR, the less you lose and the more you gain. Over time, you probably get more with a 30% win percent against top coaches than an 80% win rate against sub-noobs (since you'll lose a ton ever loss, and the wins get you almost nothing).
Don't fret much over CR. Best uses for it are in the "current games list" it often helps narrow down which matches are worth watching. |
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Hitonagashi
Joined: Apr 09, 2006
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Jan 25, 2013 - 15:40 |
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| maysrill wrote: |
Don't fret much over CR. Best uses for it are in the "current games list" it often helps narrow down which matches are worth watching. |
Until you get to high CR. Then the only people who will accept even matchups with you are new players and other legend ranked players.  |
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Christer
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Lots of confusion in this thread.. Let me try to get a few things sorted out.
First off, I don't publish the actual formula used at this point because it's quite frankly too complicated to be relevant.
In essence, it's the same old ELO based formula we used before (which is described somewhere in the Help system), with CR and TV being taken into account. On top of this, the races have rankings of their own. Each match puts each team into a "TV band", of which there are 10, and there is a racial ranking for every possible combination of the two teams (so, 24 races * 10 bands * 24 races * 10 opposing bands, meaning 57600 different racial rankings). These rankings work much like the coach rankings in that it's also the same ELO based system.
The racial rankings involved in each match is taken into account to calculate the win probability of a match (using fancy math to mix the two probabilities).
In general, matches are played with a static K value of 2 (some modification for new coaches), but if the ranking "level" differs between the coaches and there is an "upset victory" (ie, the lower level coach wins), k=3 is used instead. This makes it more risky to cherrypick, since a loss will hurt even more than normally under an ELO based system.
Although this system is quite complex as it is, I have been considering doing further modifications to it to improve certain aspects. I've been looking at the Glicko and the TrueSkill systems (which both essentially add a uncertainty factor (sigma) to the calculation as well).
On top of this, there's a separate system that manages how coaches move between the ranking "levels".
One of the big reasons that I stopped publishing the information is that there's simply too much underlying data at this point, and publishing it all would effectively be overwhelming. And it's also a huge undertaking to describe it in detail while still keeping it relatively udnerstandable.. |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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| Posted:
Jan 25, 2013 - 16:04 |
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CR is a reasonable gauge of coaching ability, but it's far from absolute. Mostly it's an indicator of streak. For example, when I was pounding down my 22-game unbeaten streak, I got up to the 170 range, and when I crashed I went almost all the way to 155, but mostly I hang out in the low 160s or at the top of the 150s.
I'd say the margin of error on CR is probably about 7-10 points. if two coaches are 20 points apart in CR, you can reasonably infer that they're probably not at the same level, but 10 points doesn't mean much.
I'd also say you should challenge legends. So what if you lose? Maybe you'll learn something. Besides, this game is so damn random... I'm unbeaten against coaches who were 180+ when I played them* and 2-0-0 against coaches who were ranked #1 at the time. Doesn't mean I'm actually that good... but I've lost to no shortage of coaches who were below my level too, so I'll take the wins when I get them, thanks. 
* 179, that's a different story. |
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Last edited by JackassRampant on %b %25, %2013 - %16:%Jan; edited 1 time in total |
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uuni
Joined: Mar 12, 2010
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Jan 25, 2013 - 16:12 |
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Are the current racial modifiers in a table somewhere? The old links don't go to the right page. |
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harvestmouse
Joined: May 13, 2007
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| Posted:
Jan 25, 2013 - 16:57 |
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| Hitonagashi wrote: | | maysrill wrote: |
Don't fret much over CR. Best uses for it are in the "current games list" it often helps narrow down which matches are worth watching. |
Until you get to high CR. Then the only people who will accept even matchups with you are new players and other legend ranked players. |
Personally, and I'm probably a fussy match 'chooser'. I'll play any coach if choosing via CR, (I generally avoid asses when choosing though), if I have a choice of 2 coaches (and neither are an ass and the teams are equal) I'll choose the lower CR coach.
However I'm pretty fussy about the teams I'm willing to play now in CRP. Most high CR coaches build their teams to win, and mostly (in CRP) this is in a way I dislike, which means they aren't games I want to play. Generally I'd rather not play, than play a team I detest the build mentality.
On the whole though, I'd rather play a high CR coach, than a mid range CR coach with a high win %, who plays most of their games in competitive divisions. If I get offered those, it means I'm a cherrymouse, and I don't ever want to be one of those! |
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Overhamsteren
Joined: May 27, 2006
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| Posted:
Jan 25, 2013 - 17:49 |
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So CR/win% gives you your cherrypicking&minmax factor?  |
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Cavetroll
Joined: Jan 21, 2009
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| Posted:
Jan 25, 2013 - 17:59 |
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| Woodstock wrote: | | I doubt I know more then any of you |
This statement will surely come back to haunt you |
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harvestmouse
Joined: May 13, 2007
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| Posted:
Jan 25, 2013 - 18:00 |
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I would say:
A bit better than average CR, high win %, play exclusively in competitive divisions, is currently using competitively made rosters for cherry picking yes.
Not for min-maxing. Min-maxers can and do maintain a high CR. |
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Woodstock
Joined: Dec 11, 2004
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| Posted:
Jan 25, 2013 - 18:03 |
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| Cavetroll wrote: | | Woodstock wrote: | | I doubt I know more then any of you |
This statement will surely come back to haunt you |
If you take it out of the context, sure. |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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| Posted:
Jan 25, 2013 - 18:15 |
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| maysrill wrote: | | koadah wrote: |
If you win a Major you should be a Legend whatever your CR says. |
I dispute this one. Coach skill is only a modifier to your odds of winning a major, it's still heavily luck-based. Plenty of mediocre coaches have won majors. |
If you win as only a mediocre coach then you would be even more of a legend. |
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Purplegoo
Joined: Mar 23, 2006
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| Posted:
Jan 25, 2013 - 19:10 |
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| Overhamsteren wrote: | | It is mostly a representation of that player's current form |
I think that's a very sensible way of looking at it. CR represents the chance of a coach winning games according to recent past, or form by any other name. Be that via skill or any other parallel factor on the games that coach is currently playing.
I, personally, have always thought you can probably separate Blood Bowl coaches into 5 or 6 groups according to skill, and then any granularity within those groups is pretty ropey. I shudder that the Blood Bowl ranking systems are to two decimal places, for instance, every scientific bone in my body rebels. So I like the new 'rank according to BB player ranks' system, but the actual number thereafter I tend to ignore. I certainly didn't sit back and feel I was King of the World during my periods as #1; and I don't cry myself to sleep when I have a bad run and I drop off the first page. I'm no better or worse a player, there's just something happening in parallel affecting that granularity. |
Last edited by Purplegoo on %b %25, %2013 - %20:%Jan; edited 1 time in total |
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