Borgen
Joined: Sep 06, 2005
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 Posted:
Nov 26, 2005 - 16:03 |
 
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This is something I've been wondering about for a while. Has anyone calculated the odds to determine whether it is worthwhile to use go for it moves to shorten the length of a pass?
My limited mathematical skills only got me this far:
1 go for it to shorten pass is worth it:
3+ pass (2/3 chance of success or 24/36) vs. 2+ go for it, 2+ pass (5/6 * 5/6 = 25/36 chance of success
2 go for it to shorten pass NOT worth it:
3+ pass (24/36 or 144/216) vs. 2+ go for it, 2+ go for it, 2+ pass (5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) = 125/216
I did the math in my head for reducing a 4+ to a 3+ pass and it seemed to follow the same formula, so I didnt calculate a 5+ or 6+ pass.
More importantly - I'm not sure how you calculate the availability of a reroll into the formulas, and I wonder if having a reroll would change these odds and make 2 go for its to shorten a pass worth it. |
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Macavity
Joined: Nov 23, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 26, 2005 - 16:08 |
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I always do it... Can't do math, let me know if you find out. Oh, and factor Sure Feet in, please  |
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BB-Pad
Joined: May 05, 2004
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Nov 26, 2005 - 16:10 |
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Borgen
Joined: Sep 06, 2005
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| Posted:
Nov 26, 2005 - 16:13 |
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Wow I love it, thanks! |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 26, 2005 - 18:59 |
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vanGorn
Joined: Feb 24, 2004
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Nov 27, 2005 - 01:21 |
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Well, there is another problem with the gfi. A failed gfi can hurt your thrower, while a missed or fumbled pass cannot. |
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MrMojo
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
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Nov 27, 2005 - 10:17 |
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And when you hurt your thrower, you've probably spent your apo already and then your thrower is KILLED! |
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Smegish
Joined: Jul 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 27, 2005 - 10:37 |
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Depends on the range of the pass, reducing a short to a quick, prolly not worth it. But shortening the range for a Long Bomb by using a gfi can be a good idea, then you have less chance of fumbling the pass. (even if it doesn't go where you aimed at) |
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Karhumies
Joined: Oct 17, 2004
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Nov 27, 2005 - 10:56 |
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| Smegish wrote: | | Depends on the range of the pass, reducing a short to a quick, prolly not worth it. But shortening the range for a Long Bomb by using a gfi can be a good idea, then you have less chance of fumbling the pass. (even if it doesn't go where you aimed at) |
True, if there is only a single gfi and the thrower has decent AG.
However, at low AG you might just as well long bomb it.
Long bomb:
1,2,3 = fumble, regardless of agility
6 = success, regardless of agility
4,5 = it's somewhere around where you want the ball to be
versus
Long pass:
gfi 1 = sucks to be you. opponent gets the ball and your game is screwed.
gfi 2-6 = you can attempt to make a pass
pass 1, 2 = fumble, regardless of agility
pass 6 = success, regardless of agility
pass 3,4 = it's somewhere around where you want the ball to be
pass 5 = now this is what matters. If even a 5 on a long pass is a missed throw (means AG 2 or lower), never gfi to make a LB into a LP. If 5 on a long pass = accurate pass (requires AG 3 or higher), you might consider taking the single gfi.
Two gfis for passing is never worth it...unless that allows you to pass in a blizzard or you are outside of even the LB range without 2 gfis. |
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MadTias
Joined: Jun 19, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 27, 2005 - 11:00 |
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Ah, but you are forgetting my friends, that the thrower might very well have the pass skill and the receiver the catch skill, meaning there could be a team re-roll "to spare" for the GFI. In that case, why not GFI? |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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Nov 27, 2005 - 11:02 |
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Cause Nuffle sucks and you will roll snake eyes anyway?
 |
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Karhumies
Joined: Oct 17, 2004
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Nov 27, 2005 - 11:03 |
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| MadTias wrote: | | Ah, but you are forgetting my friends, that the thrower might very well have the pass skill and the receiver the catch skill, meaning there could be a team re-roll "to spare" for the GFI. In that case, why not GFI? |
Ah yes, I was basing my table on the assumptions "no re-rolls of any kind" and "even a missed pass is way better than falling a gfi".
My best passer is a Saurus, I believe. |
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tautology
Joined: Jan 30, 2004
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Nov 27, 2005 - 11:42 |
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It doesn't matter what you do, you will never succeed if it is turn 16 and you are going for the winning TD.
Unless you are my opponent, in which case you cannot fail! |
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Buur
Joined: Apr 29, 2004
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Nov 27, 2005 - 11:43 |
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we once did the match i think i came out this way for 3+ dodnt do it. for a 4+ take one gfi but not 2... but i cant rember if that didnt change if you dont have pass or a rr....
Dust have the calculations maybe he will post em?.....
-Buur |
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macike
Joined: Jun 25, 2005
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 Posted:
Nov 27, 2005 - 16:34 |
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I've made some probability calculations and here comes the outcome (in short):
- it is always worth to GFI once,
- it is always worth to GFI twice if you have a spare RR,
- it is worth to GFI twice if you have not a spare RR and your target roll is 5+ or 6+.
Please have in mind that 'target rolls' stands for what you need to roll after all modifiers are applied.
Please notice also that playing fumbbl games deals with pseudo random numbers and snake eyes are more likely to happen. |
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