Probability of ...

Hi,

after i've noticed, that some of you are quite interested in numbers, i would like to point out at TheBot. This poor little guy is available in many IRC channels here on fumbbl and has a function build in to calculate the probability of dice events.

I'll make some examples. Let's say you have to dodge (no Dodge skill) with AG3 three times and then throw a pass on 4+. For all this you have the team reroll left.

bb wsk 4/6,4/6,4/6,3/6

(= 37% success)

(as the prob for a dodge is 4 out of 6 and pass is accurate on 3 out of 6). You can use 4/6 or 2/3, that doesn't matter. The team reroll is activated by default.

For not using the team reroll, you insert a "trr=0", so that the example from above would become

bb wsk 4/6,4/6,4/6,3/6,trr=0

(= 14,8% success)

If you have rerolls, which are given through skills, you could use them, too.

Let's say a WE catcher with Sure Feet makes 2 dodges and 3 gfi and has no team reroll left, then the formula would be:

bb wsk 5/6RR1,5/6RR1,5/6RR1,5/6RR2,5/6RR2,trr=0

5/6RR1 = The GFI with Sure Feet as RR1

5/6RR2 = The dodge with Dodge as RR2

The reroll of a certain skill can only be used once as well as the team reroll.

Btw, the probability of the last result is about 80,3% and with a team reroll left it increases to 86,5%.

Good luck testing ;-)

gan

http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=admin&op=match&status=Paused

https://fumbbl.com/ffb.jnlp?spectate=XXX

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