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Java
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Java (24641)
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Mega-Star
Overall
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Win Percentage
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Archive

2024

2024-03-20 01:01:29
rating 6
2024-02-13 09:20:56
rating 6

2023

2023-11-29 21:07:30
rating 6
2023-11-13 21:34:29
rating 6
2023-05-03 13:33:15
rating 6
2023-04-20 11:32:38
rating 6
2023-02-11 10:12:54
rating 6
2023-02-03 16:04:56
rating 6

2022

2022-12-28 19:17:52
rating 5.6
2022-09-15 22:14:42
rating 4.8
2022-09-07 22:09:11
rating 5.5
2022-08-29 22:51:11
rating 5.9
2022-08-24 00:17:20
rating 5.2
2022-05-16 23:52:45
rating 5.7
2022-03-08 11:38:12
rating 6
2022-02-05 12:11:11
rating 5.7
2022-02-03 01:25:33
rating 6

2021

2021-10-09 14:02:07
rating 5.6
2021-09-26 23:51:11
rating 5.5
2021-09-15 10:13:14
rating 6
2021-09-09 17:53:40
rating 5.5
2021-07-20 11:11:29
rating 5.9
2021-06-28 08:45:29
rating 5.7
2021-04-02 19:58:27
rating 5.5
2021-01-22 19:46:21
rating 5.8
2021-01-13 20:53:01
rating 5.4

2020

2020-12-28 22:44:11
rating 5.3
2020-12-10 15:22:29
rating 4.9
2020-12-05 17:17:24
rating 5.4
2020-11-28 09:57:39
rating 5.9
2020-11-20 15:08:31
rating 4.8
2020-10-24 23:58:51
rating 6
2020-10-17 10:05:11
rating 5.5
2020-10-13 10:36:47
rating 5.2
2020-07-17 07:27:24
rating 5.7
2020-05-08 14:42:09
rating 5.9
2020-04-13 11:37:55
rating 5.3

2019

2019-12-07 21:10:39
rating 5.6
2019-05-25 00:49:44
rating 5.4
2022-08-29 22:51:11
13 votes, rating 5.9
Rumbles and Stars
There have been rumblings (hehe) regarding Royal Rookie Rumbles from many sides. This one is a tricky one, because as much as everyone else I strive to avoid saying "I was wrong" and yet here we are. So we're here to discuss how, where and to what extent my dismissals were wrong. Also, maybe, how not to go overboard with our reaction to stars.

First things first. What is a Minimal Star/Stunty Build?

Please note that every time someone mentions MSSBs somebody else gets the idea to try their hand at them, and it's increasingly annoying for some of the Royal Rookie Rumble Regulars. Well, MSSBs are teams built on purpose below the usual starting TV of 1 million or thereabouts, with a plan in mind to use Inducements regularly. Think Goblins needing a couple bribes, or Halflings starting at 700-800 to get a Chef and something else according to the match-up, but dial it up to 11.

MSSBs are not news, people have been creating TV700 Halflings for tournaments since forever, what's new is that some of them are now much more effective, due to Low Cost Linemen, plus cheaper, better Stars. Which ones exactly?

Well, 32 rumbles have concluded so far in [C], of which 10 have been won by MSSBs, plus another one that could be controversially termed as such; more on that later.

The 10 winners are 6 Snotling teams (out of 35 attempts) and 4 Ogre teams (out of 10). The former play the infamous combo Morg + Hakflem most of the time, while the latter enjoy Morg + Griff, and both benefit from having loads of cash and fans, Low Cost Linemen, cheap fouls etc. Snotlings excel at damage with Swarming, ATC reroll, bombers, while Ogres can be considered safer due to Griff's statline and skills. The extra team mentioned above is Elyod's Goblins, who never had the same star in the 4 games they played, and therefore probably don't fit the bill.

Only 2 of those 32 rumbles are totally starless. In the remaining 30, Morg appears in EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM and also for around 1/4 of the matches played. That is astonishing.
Hakflem showed up for 21 of those 30 rumbles, Griff for 12, no other star got past 5 MATCHES (matches, not rumbles) played.
It seems you can't enter a rumble without stepping on those three gentlemen's feet. The current ongoing one looks like it could have two minimal Ogre teams facing off in the finals.

Other teams tried to join Elyod's gobbos up there in the glorious Olympus of variant MSSBs. Some of them mine. None of them succesful. They were 10 Halfling, 7 Underworld, 2 Goblin, 2 Norse, 1 each of Nobility, Pact, Owa, and Chorfs. There could be one Khorne in there too but they didn't get to induce any stars due to running into one of the aforementioned Halflings.

The data seems to say that Morg, Griff and Hakflem are overused, and therefore could be called "the problem", and no other star comes close to their popularity. Also, just two rosters are consistently able to exploit the "minimal build" bug (or feature).

The consensus seems to be that playing these teams gets boring fast, for the one coaching them, and even faster, for people facing them often. 3/4 of match ups are just too easy, the team itself has close to no progression, and just a handful of teams seems to be able to cope with such opponents.

Storr put forward the proposal that "regulars" should stop using them, which is also what our living history book AD said will eventually happen, comparing it to something called "Rent-A-Count" that used to be similarly exploited long ago. Not sure that will happen this time, the new toy is very shiny.

On the other hand Kinks has, for a long time, argued for a hard cap of 200k, or even lower at times, on Stars being used in rumbles. I disagree with that because it's not supported by the data, and hits everyone equally, when it's clear that the problem is 2 specific teams and 3 specific stars.

Aside from a hard cap on Star price tag, that anyway leaves out the excellent goblin stars available to all the best evil teams, a hard cap on unspent treasury is useful only for game one, unless you also try to regulate mass firings and TV trims. To me it looks like a never ending regulation spiral. "No stars at all" feels wrong as well, for a variety of reasons, maimed actual teams being one.

I don't know what the Tournament Head Honchos intend to do to "fix" the Rumbles, but it seems that something needs to be done, or at least a lot of people are now convinced of it, myself included. My proposal based on the data, and you could probably guess it already, is a surgical ban on the Super Duper Point&Click Immortal Killer (Morg) and his two companions the Stupidly Reliable And Unbelievably Mobile Ballers (Hakflem and Griff). It basically recreates the old RRRs environment where you could maybe get a blodger, or a decent big guy, but nothing as powerful as those three.

Until some fix is implemented, though, we'll continue to see them pop up in the two LCL teams, or, if you're feeling original, in other teams, which to be fair have never been succesful with such a strategy. It's difficult to make stars work with a short bench and few, if any, rerolls/positionals. Based on the numbers, quite a few people thought Halflings could be as good as Ogres, which didn't turn out to be true, so there's a challenge for you.
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Comments
Posted by Rawlf on 2022-08-29 23:09:59
Great blogpost, Java, thanks!
Posted by C0ddlefish on 2022-08-30 00:06:54
I've not thought about this much but....why weren't Griff and Hakflem so problematic last ruleset. We still had Disposable.

Is it the special skills? The fact Griff is a little cheaper?

Morg is obviously a different story.
Posted by Storr on 2022-08-30 00:23:04
Because Ogres didn't have Griff.

Anyway, I would welcome a ban on the big 3 and will look forward to the rise of boomer in the RRR. Filthy little bugger (grrr). Still a lot better to play against him than Morg/Griff/Hakflem.
For a short time it actually looked like there would be a significant decrease in MSSBs but sadly that didn't last very long and I reckon it will only happen once everyone who plays more RRR than 2 per year has one once with everyone of them.

My personal hope is that we can exchange the presence of Morg/Griff/Hakflem for the presence of geggster in the RRR.
Posted by C0ddlefish on 2022-08-30 00:28:38
Ahhh.....access to stars. Of course
Posted by Java on 2022-08-30 00:32:02
@Storr: ...and Joost! and SideshowBob! and Melmoth! :)

@c0d: Hakflem was legacy era and accessible only to skaven and UW IIRC, Griff was humans only or close enough, and cost a lot more, same goes for Morg, and they didn't have all those special tricks :/

Posted by Java on 2022-08-30 00:33:55
(that list is not exhaustive)
Posted by Astrolonim on 2022-08-30 01:18:19
Great post, Java!
The steps towards making good stunty teams (which I think were good) in BB2020 really changed up the way stars and teambuilding work, which I think hurts the Rumbles.
I think Morg is the only real meta-breaking problem in RRR. But I think Griff and Bomber are also OP.
It raises the question of whether we intend to play exactly by the books or whether we want to try to balance. For example: instead of banning them, what if just their special abilities were removed? Or if they all cost 50k more?
Posted by tussock on 2022-08-30 04:19:27
OK, so, the meta to consider.

of BB20 Rumble games

~35% include Snots, Dorfs, Orcs, or Zons.

~20% include Khemri, Chorfs, Unders, or Undead.

~15% include Norse, Humans, Imps, or Ogres.


So, quite likely you're going to have to beat 3 of those on your way to winning. There's almost no elf teams, no chaos stuff, it's stunties vs block or tackle, and/or mass strength.

--

In that meta, flings are stuffed, those are the teams can handle the trees and smash the flings. Griff Flings are 49% win rate, and Griff Ogres are 72%, 2+ dodge in that meta or die, and of course, there's too much block and tackle for the Zons too.

That's what I found in my go at it, mass 2+ dodge with Riotous Rookies and a star to get stuff done is sort of beatable with elves, by just dodging in for a 1d (or 3d) but the meta kills rookie elves with all the strength and block/tackle that's hunting snotlings/gnoblars, and the dorfs can't get to the ball, especially with Morg removing a couple each drive.

--

Khemri do the worst for a team that's played a lot (because Khemri), and Nurgs have done the best for a team that's hardly played at all, but they always lose to Morg or Zons so far anyway, and mostly it's just Joost is good and played them.

--

So yeah, Griff or Morgflem, it's 72% on Ogres and 65% on snots, and has dropped the Zons from that sort of rate in the old days back to 59%.

Like, if the leap nerf wasn't there, Woodies would be cleaning this up, they have Hackflem for dinner with a strip-dancer for game 2. But the leap nerf is here, so here we are.
Posted by JB on 2022-08-30 07:52:44
Excellent summary Java, thank you!

Personally, I have had a love-hate relationship with RRR forever. I really dislike the meta but in lieu of alternative scheduling modes, I played a few RRRs with some ridiculous teams. My issue with the current format is that you are forced to play a MSSB or dedicated counter-MSSB team if you want to maximise your odds of winning.
I get Storr’s intention of the regulars just opting out of this race… but that just seems wrong to me since this is a competitive tournament. Personally, I would much rather play good coaches with competitive teams rather than steam roll a rookie coached fluff-roster with an MSSB build. Imho, the latter matchup type is just a waste of time for both coaches.

Either way, here we are now and I do share the popular sentiment and hope for change. I believe that keeping the current format will mean that RRR popularity will now rapidly decline. We now have blackbox and there really isn’t a reason for coaches to play RRR unless they desperately want to play MSSB teams.

I get that IF anything is going to change, the tournament crew on fumbbl will make an informed decision based on the RRR track record. In my opinion, this would be a great opportunity to rethink the whole format – i.e. not just ban 3 star players, but maybe even introduce some sort of tiering/incentives for unpopular RRR teams… one can dream ;)

Posted by SideshowBob on 2022-08-30 07:54:49
I don't like changing the official rules how bad they might be.
But having tournament specific rules is something completely different. And I really agree that something has to be fixed. I mean just for fluff, I find it really hard to see that the worlds biggest star would join a rookie snot team to play in a Sunday League-like tournament.
Posted by Java on 2022-08-30 10:10:03
@tussock you might be overstating the effectiveness of Morg vs dwarves. I ran the numbers a while ago and if he does 16 3d blocks he has an average of 1 cas and 1 ko per game, versus the hairy buggers. IMHO well played chorfs, dorfs, orcs, norse zons and possibly humans are some of the teams who can curb stomp Morgflem. Anedoctal evidence seems to confirm it.

Great analyses of the failings of flings, btw
Posted by wintergreen13 on 2022-08-30 10:39:34
I won my single RRR so I'm happy - I'll put it on my CV and retire to the country. I guess I'm turning into Nelphine because the format just does not do it for me these days. Hopefully B.A.R. Brawls return soon because having to fit your team into a TV range seems like it would encourage a different kind of creative thinking.
Posted by Joost on 2022-08-30 10:51:25
I'm very much in favour of this proposal! Once I would stop running into snotlings with Morg and Hakflem constantly, I will be playing RRR again. Without that change they started to feel like a chore to me.
Posted by PurpleChest on 2022-08-31 15:07:13
i have stopped playing RR for this exact reason, and can think of no good answer.
Posted by Storr on 2022-09-05 21:51:51
No stars at all would be best.