Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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 Posted:
Nov 13, 2022 - 18:42 |
 
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Nov 13, 2022 - 23:07 |
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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Nov 14, 2022 - 00:43 |
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| Sp00keh wrote: | Most dramatic stat there is possibly bigger team winning 48% of games
In prior rules it would have been much higher |
It definitely feels that way on an anecdotal level, though it's possible the TV differences between the over- and underdog might have been smaller back then, rather than the fairly large gaps we've seen thus far. Regardless, it feels a lot easier to make a deep run with a rookie and/or stunty team in 2020 than in any other ruleset I've used.
Since the start of the tournament the larger team has won 55% of the time (though, to be fair, this could be anything from 5k to 1,000k higher). This also doesn't capture instances like in KidCrestHill's game, where the underdog overspends to gain even more - these aren't really represented anywhere in my stats. |
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Java
Joined: Jan 27, 2018
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Nov 14, 2022 - 22:44 |
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can we get a % on how many teams picked by Nelphine got wrecked right after the pick happened
for science!  |
_________________
Vlad Von Carstein's door-to-door evangelist |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Nov 15, 2022 - 00:49 |
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I will include that in the end of round 3 summary! |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Nov 15, 2022 - 23:28 |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Nov 17, 2022 - 02:05 |
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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Nov 17, 2022 - 04:19 |
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Round 3 stats! I probably won't do any other round-specific stats, and most likely will wait until the FC is over for any further updates. Regardless, here's what we've got:
16 games were played in round 3, and here's the most interesting stat of all: not a single game was played without star players joining in! Stars were everywhere!
When stars played for only one side, the side with no stars won 6 times while the side with the star player won 7 times.
Stars played for both sides in the remaining 3 games: one time both coaches had the same number and 2 times the team with fewer stars won.
In 9 of the 16 games the overdog spent treasury for inducements, but only 4 resulted in victory for the team who overdog spent (44%).
Bomber was purchased 3 of these times, bringing home 1 win, while a wizard was the overdog purchase of choice only once (but the team who purchased it did win).
In general, the larger team won 7 times (44%).
In a fun bit of coincidence, the final match of round 3 brought us to 100 total star appearances! These stars are collectively 44 wins and 56 losses, improving very slightly to a 44% win rate (now THAT is some hard math lol).
Bomber is 14 wins 9 losses, Morg sits almost even at 10 wins 11 losses, and poor ol' Helmut is still trying his best at 2 wins 8 losses (with Wilhelm Chaney not doing much better, at 1 win 7 losses). Not too much has changed overall, so I'll do a full tournament wrap-up when the tournament has... wrapped up, I guess? |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Nov 17, 2022 - 05:04 |
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With the end of round 3, we have a few things to wrap up!
First, how did my original predictions do? How about Astrolonim? And what do we have going forward!
All this and more shall be revealed.
First, how did I do?
I predicted 16 teams.
Of the 16, 3 of them made it to the 3rd round, and then were defeated. So those 3 were Wrong.
1 of them was defeated in the second round, and then I predicted another team, which was also wrong in the third round. 2 of them were defeated in the first round, so I predicted another team, who was defeated in the third round. These 3 were Double Wrong.
2 of them was defeated in the first round, then my next prediction was defeated in the second round, then my third prediction was defeated in the third round. These 2 were Triple Wrong!
1 of them was defeated in the first round, so I got a second chance.. and they were correct! A second one was defeated in the second round, and my second attempt was correct! These 2 were Half Correct!
6 of them were simply absolutely completely CORRECT! Yes you heard it, I got something right!
In the end that means I got (6*1 + 2*0.5) 7/16 correct!! I'll take it! But it also means.. I got (3*1 + 3*2 + 2*3) 15/16 incorrect. This seems poor. You may question the math, but I'm the one who made the predictions! So I get to decide it!
Astrolonim also made some predictions, although his came later. But he predicted which is awesome, so he gets points anyway!
He got 10 wrong, plus he voted for dwarves in one of them, which is always wrong, and he didn't even look at one bracket! So he gets 4.5/15!
Now you may ask, what else shall be revealed?
Well, I'm just going to copy and paste what I have in the majors channel on discord (join if you aren't there!), just to record it for posterity!
Underworld, Black Orc, Halfling, Khorne, Imperial, Goblins, Vampires, Skaven, High Elves, Wood Elves, Khemri, Amazon, Pro Elf, Norse, Chaos, Nurgle are out of the FC
This leaves us with the following rosters going into round 4! (Yes one game was played already, ignore that for this)
2/10 Undead
2/4 Dwarf
2/4 Ogre
2/10 Chaos Dwarf
1/7 Necromantic
1/4 Snotling
1/6 Human
1/3 Lizardmen
1/8 Orc
1/2 Dark Elf
1 Chaos Pact
1 Old World
And the TV has steadily been growing. In round 1, the average was 1345 tv. Round two, it was 1390 tv. Round 3 it reached 1435 tv. So it will probably still keep going! |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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| Posted:
Nov 17, 2022 - 05:21 |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Nov 17, 2022 - 05:25 |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Nov 17, 2022 - 06:03 |
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And now, time for ROUND TWO! FIGHT! or round 4. or whatever it is. either way, I'm going to do.. MOAR PREDICSHUNSSSSZ
We have FURTEEN GAMZ LEFT! LES DO EET GIIIIITTTZZZZZZZZZZZZ
----------------Three vs Four----------------
[BT6] Tusslin'
(Dwarf - 1320TV)
wintergreen13
vs
Noted Firepower
(Shambling Undead - 1320TV)
HimalayaP1C7
This match up sees.. wintergreen13 with a perfect dwarf runner.. and generally dwarves.. and god its dwarves. Against a strong, but not exceptional Undead team. While HimalayaP1C7 got my pick to win his bracket, I have to go with wintergreen13 and his dwarves here.
----------------Five vs Six-----------------
Spoonless
(Old World Alliance - 1420TV)
tussock
vs
Xlanhuapec Smashmouth
(Lizardmen - 1690TV)
Joost
Joost and a very strong lizardman team. tussock is good though and he has.. what the hell is that? Old World Alliance??? in a MAJOR? no, I have to vote for Joost and the lizardman. Yeah, yeah, I know, Storr was destroyed by my prediction (literally), but that can't happen TWICE can it?
----------------Seven vs Eight----------------
Hindsight is BB(2020)
(Chaos Dwarf - 1460TV)
spinball
vs
Morg 'N' Thorg Variety Hour
(Ogre - 1160TV)
happygrue
spinball has a rock solid Chaos Dwarf team. Lots of guard, and mighty blow. But.. he's up against happygrue, who has Ogres. And.. guard doesn't help much against the Morg'n'Thorg Variety Hour. And really, nothing helps against happygrue, even with Ogres.
----------------Nine vs Ten-----------------
Fumbll Cup Underdog
(Snotling - 640TV)
Monitor4321
vs
LobosMarinos
(Human - 1490TV)
grant85
grant85 beat my expectations to get here, and he did it with a big human team. He's got a great catcher, and multiple mighty blow tackle.. but.. he's against Monitor4321 and THE Fumbll Cup Underdog. Yup, that's right, Monitor4321 and Snotlings are going to take this game.
---------------Eleven vs Twelve----------------
Okkawaagh Red Gruntz
(Orc - 1760TV)
Nelphine
vs
Taking It To Ya
(Ogre - 2030TV)
MolonLave
Welp, here we are again. A fool has to double down. And we're against the HIGHEST TV in the tournament, Ogres with a Blodge +AG +AG Break Tackle MONSTROSITY of an Ogre. But, we are fools, and we'll still predict Nelphine and his Orcs to take the day.
--------------Thirteen vs Fourteen---------------
Good old Gravediggers
(Shambling Undead - 1570TV)
Lewdgrip
vs
C20 - Tzeentch's Fateweavers
(Chaos Dwarf - 1430TV)
Astrolonim
Lewdgrip has a very strong Undead team. But Astrolonim, well, his Chaos Dwarves won the Ulthuan Invitational for a reason. And that reason is 5 stand firm guard chaos dwarves, with a mess of mighty blow, claw, and dirty player, as well as a Legendary hobgoblin (those words should never go together, ever). So Astrolonim and Chaos Dwarves will continue on.
---------------Fifteen vs Sixteen---------------
[EBTIII] Dark Elfves
(Dark Elf - 1830TV)
Elyod
vs
Full Moon Frenzy Fun
(Necromantic Horror - 1470TV)
DaCoach
Elyod has Dark Elves. He has blodge. He has dodge. He has guard. He has sidestep. He has blodgestep guard. He has multiple blodgestep guards. DaCoach.. does not have a lot of tackle. Or mighty blow. Or dirty player. All things that usually are required for necromantic. But.. he has an MA9 ghoul. And he has.. strip ball. Multiple strip ball. Those elves are going to need to rely heavily on blodgestep guard to carry them, or they are going to get picked off one by one. In the end, I think Elyod and the Dark Elves will be able to rely on that though.
Round 5 Predictions!
Based on my predictions, we see:
Bashto with Chaos Dwarves vs wintergreen13 with Dwarves. wintergreen13 still has that stellar runner to carry the game when the dwarves thick skulls all smash into each other. wintergreen13 and Dwarves
Joost with Lizardmen vs happygrue with Ogres. Normally I would always always pick happygrue. But Joost isn't normally. His lizardmen will eat the ogres for breakfast and use the gnoblars as toothpicks. Joost and Lizardmen
Monitor4321 with Snotlings vs Nelphine with Orcs. The fool shall continue.. snotlings, goblins, vampires, ogres, snotlings. The record won't end here! Nelphine and Orcs
Astrolonim with Chaos Dwarves vs Elyod with Dark Elves. This should be the final of the tournament, the favoured bashers vs phenomenal elves, the classic. But this time, the blodgestep guards win out. Elyod and Dark Elves
Round 6!
wintergreen13 with Dwarves vs Joost with Lizardmen. So I'm very very torn here. I like to say I can play lizardmen, and for me, Dwarves are an awful, awful matchup. But every other lizardman coach I know chew Dwarves up and spit them out. Nope, I'm going with my gut. wintergreen13 and Dwarves
Nelphine with Orcs vs Elyod with Dark Elves. Yup I'm a fool, but the orcs have the strength and the guard to simply smash through the blodgestep guard, and grind away to win, whether in regular or in overtime. Nelphine and Orcs
FINALS
wintergreen13 with Dwarves vs Nelphine with Orcs. First, can we all just accept, this is the worst finals ever? Orcs deserve to die. KILL ALL ORCS. And dwarves! They're just a bunch of thick skulled no-fun-for-you-if-you-try-anything! This isn't the finals we deserve. But we've got it. And Nelphine's Orcs simply have better skills, and their blitzer can run down the dwarf runner, and keep on running. Nelphine and Orcs |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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| Posted:
Nov 17, 2022 - 06:10 |
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Now someone, do a better prediction that doesn't have that Nelphine guy running his mouth so much! If I'm being serious, I think MolonLave beats me. |
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SideshowBob
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Nov 17, 2022 - 07:49 |
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Good job Nelphine, if you didn't play orcs I'd root for you  |
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tussock
Joined: May 29, 2011
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Nov 17, 2022 - 08:13 |
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If only Necro had better inducements.
Favourites.
wintergreen13, but only barely, that's a tough game.
Joost, but eh, he could lose, honest he could.
grue for the lols.
humans will tear up those snots, go Grant.
who knows, but yeah, probably Nelphine? Maybe?
Chorfs down too many Guards, Lewgrip can take 'em.
Elyod, just because Necro have relatively poor inducements.
Then ...
wintergreen, depending on team condition.
gotta back grue, all the way.
Ogres or Orcs over the humans.
Elyod again vs weak undead inducements.
Then ...
Grue, so, it's Ogre vs Ogre in the final! Ogres win another Major. |
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