Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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 Posted:
Nov 03, 2022 - 04:47 |
 
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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| Posted:
Nov 03, 2022 - 16:12 |
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A little bit of analysis on star players playing in the FC, first round:
Star players were induced in 38 of the 46 played matches, 83% of the time.
In matches where star players played for only one team, the team with the star(s) won 12 times (26%) while the team without stars won 19 times (41%).
7 matches were played where stars played for both teams. In these, 4 times (9%) both sides had the same number of stars, while the side with more stars won 1 time (2%) and the side with fewer stars won 2 times ( 4%).
I haven't broken out star player wins and losses by star into rounds, but including 2nd round matches star players have 29 wins and 35 losses collectively, for a 45% win rate so far. The three most popular stars are Bomber (9 wins, 7 losses), Morg (8 wins, 7 losses), and Helmut (2 wins, 6 losses).
Additionally, I've looked a bit at overdog spending and whether the overdog (larger team) or underdog (smaller team) won more often.
Overall, the overdog won in 28 of the 46 games (61%). Of these games, the overdog spent treasury to buy inducements 16 times. Of these 16, the overdog won 12 of them (75% win rate if overdog spending).
Though the sample size is tiny, it was apparent that the main reason to overdog spend was to induce Bomber (taken 7 times, won 6 of those) or a wizard (taken 3 times, won 1 of those). |
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Endrophil
Joined: Nov 16, 2015
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Nov 03, 2022 - 17:47 |
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Overdogs should be forbidden! |
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MerryZ
Joined: Nov 28, 2005
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Nov 03, 2022 - 18:15 |
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I have to say that I do like Cats more. |
_________________
Kaptain Awasoam, Dicer of All Men and Women and Children and Puppies. |
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Joost
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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Nov 04, 2022 - 09:37 |
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I thought Orcs would rule this tournament, and I'm surprised that they're not doing well at all. Is that random or do you see a systemic weakness in orcs as a tourney team? |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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Nov 04, 2022 - 09:57 |
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Undead have been sent back to the graveyard as well, 7/10 in the first round
My only thoughts about why, could be people spending treasury? |
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MerryZ
Joined: Nov 28, 2005
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Nov 04, 2022 - 10:28 |
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Undead starpool is worst, Orc starpool is one of the best.
Low TV undead is clearly not the way to play.
I dont think orcs have many excuse for dropping out, its still one if not the best r00ster out there. Maybe nuffle just like em as much as I do  ? |
_________________
Kaptain Awasoam, Dicer of All Men and Women and Children and Puppies.
Last edited by MerryZ on %b %04, %2022 - %11:%Nov; edited 1 time in total |
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Rawlf
Joined: Jul 15, 2007
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Nov 04, 2022 - 10:59 |
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Looking at the Orcs, I see
Jopotzuki: out vs MerryZ with Morg + sg/dp catcher.
The_Murker: got past even Undead, out vs tussock's OWA with Zug and early CAS. Had Bomber in both rounds.
Malmir: huge team + Bomber out vs Ogres with Deeproot and Morg and happygrue at the wheel. Close iirc.
RavensFan: underdog with Bomber and Helmut out vs Arturidas Monsterdwarves at +20CR, also close.
Nelphine: got past Jokaero's minned Snots.
Glauk: rookie team + Morg chanceless vs developped UW.
MattDakka: huge team got past Sp00keh's rookies, then out vs Astrolonim's equally huge CDs in OT.
BeanBelly: got past a weaker CD side.
Those are all plausible individually, I don't think there is something structurally holding back the orcs. With a different mood on Nuffle's end it could be 6/8 orcs now instead of 2/8. |
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Joost
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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Nov 04, 2022 - 13:22 |
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Interesting, let's see if Nuffle is more favourable to orcs in the next Major. |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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Nov 04, 2022 - 14:03 |
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Malmir v happygrue is a good replay
My favourite bits:
The shockingly direct way in which Bomber is dealt with
The creative surf, and the recovery after |
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BeanBelly
Joined: Nov 14, 2019
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| Posted:
Nov 04, 2022 - 16:33 |
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| wintergreen13 wrote: | A little bit of analysis on star players playing in the FC, first round:
… it was apparent that the main reason to overdog spend was to induce Bomber (taken 7 times, won 6 of those) or a wizard (taken 3 times, won 1 of those). |
What your analysis may have missed is where both teams bought bomber? For example I overdogged Bomber correctly guessing my underdog Chorf opponent would take him. So of course he does not show for either side..
Treasury defo is powerful [incidentally mine feels a little depleted after two dead in R1]. Be interesting to see if confident coaches hold onto cash, hoping to use it in later rounds.
Bomber AND a Wizard is just so explosive it’s hard to manage. I was paying for a more reliable outcome and get the campaign off to a safe start. |
_________________
Painting myself into a corner |
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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| Posted:
Nov 04, 2022 - 20:29 |
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| BeanBelly wrote: | | wintergreen13 wrote: | A little bit of analysis on star players playing in the FC, first round:
… it was apparent that the main reason to overdog spend was to induce Bomber (taken 7 times, won 6 of those) or a wizard (taken 3 times, won 1 of those). |
What your analysis may have missed is where both teams bought bomber? For example I overdogged Bomber correctly guessing my underdog Chorf opponent would take him. So of course he does not show for either side.. |
I took this into account and noted it as overdog spending with Bomber as the inducement in my spreadsheet - the match report still shows the amount spent by the overdog as a little +50k under the team name. As far as I saw this happened twice: once in your game and once in the Astrolonim v. MattDakka match. If I missed any others let me know! |
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BeanBelly
Joined: Nov 14, 2019
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Nov 05, 2022 - 10:13 |
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Fine work sir! |
_________________
Painting myself into a corner |
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Kinks
Joined: Feb 28, 2007
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| Posted:
Nov 05, 2022 - 21:15 |
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BeanBelly
Joined: Nov 14, 2019
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| Posted:
Nov 05, 2022 - 23:00 |
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Good tip off Kinks, worth a watch that one |
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Painting myself into a corner |
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