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Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 23, 2019 - 20:51 Reply with quote Back to top

The NCBB season 32 is coming to a close. Only a few games remain before the Bowls at the season end!

Ottawa has long collected scraps of biological specimens from the NCBB games, and done wondrous research with them.

Now, we turn our hand to predictive stats.

We have compiled the most exhaustive algorithm known to statisticians the old world over!

From this we can now do two things - we can indicate who the best team is, and predict who the best teams will be at the end of Out of Conference play!

Further, we can say without a doubt, that the first place team will have less than twice the points of the last place team!*

Lastly, the algorithm accurately represents such important details as Wood Elves are cheaters, Orcs are awful, and Lizardmen are the natural rulerss of the Blood Bowl Pitch.

Without further ado, our predictions for the top teams of the NCBB at the end of season 32:

1: TCU Horned Rats
2: California Golden Lizards
3: SMU Mousestangs
4: Miami BallHawks

Note that the top 4 are all from seperate conferences. I think this is a true indication of the fairness of the NCBB!

5: Howlson Tigers
6: East Carolina Pyrates
7: Duke Blue-Green Devils
8: U-Dub Elfskies
10: Bro-Hio State Buckeyes and Roald Amundsen Medical School

Note that Bro-Hio and Roald Amundsen are tied for 23rd right now, bit our algorithm is so sophisticated that we can see their true potential!

12: Air Force Warpstone Falcons and Mz State Bull Dawgz
13: Texas E n' M Banshees
15: UTEP Party Minors and UC San Dogo Krytens
16: Oregon Waterfoul
17: Karak University
19: U of Wisconsin Rat-Grrrrs and Berea Bleeding Angels
21: Saint Louis Billikens and Colgate Ultra-Brets
23: BYU Cougars and Poli Puerkos
24: Unv. Central Florida Knights
25: FlaSt Delfinoles

Note that Karak and BYU are biggest standouts here. They're currently 8th and 14th respectively, but are inflated due to simply playing all their games faster than their competitors.

26: Illinois Valley CC Ranchers
29: Ooklahoma Flingers and Northern Virginia CC Hawks and Notre Dame Flying Irish
30: Isha-ana State Sycamores
31: Purdue Braziermakers
32: Zhar Naggrund Mountainers

And, just to prove the fairness, the last 4 also come from all 4 conferences! The competition is fierce in NCBB!

*Pleasenotesometeamsareactuallylowerthan halffirstplacebutwethinkthstisclearlyananomoly.

Stay tuned for more perfect information from the Ottawa Bee-Bees rant and rave section!


Last edited by Nelphine on Aug 27, 2019 - 02:07; edited 1 time in total
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 26, 2019 - 20:24 Reply with quote Back to top

More games have been played, and we continue to monitor progress.

Based on these new games, there are some changes to our predictions!

The top 4 remain the same. However, 5th to 10th are a bit shaken up:
East Carolina Pyrates moves up to 5th
Duke Blue-Green Devils and Howlson Tigers move down for a three way tie with U-Dub Elfskies for 8th
Roald Amundsen Medical School moves up to 9th (note this team has the highest potential, as currently they are sitting tied at 24th)

Up to the top 15 have a few changes as well.
Air Force Warpstone Falcons, Mz State Bull Dawgz both move up, still tied but 11th
Texas E n' M Banshees moves up to 12th
Bro-Hio State Buckeyes falls hard to 13th

Karak University inch up to 16th
Berea Bleeding Angels and U of Wisconsin Rat-Grrrrs stay tied but up to 18th
Oregon Waterfoul falls drastically, down to tie with others who dropped, Saint Louis Billikens and Colgate Ultra-Brets, and make a four way tie with rising star FlaSt Delfinoles, all to match at 22nd
BYU Cougars and Poli Puerkos both drop to toe at 24th
Univ. Central Florida Knights drops to 25th

And at the bottom Purdue Braziermakers and Isha-ana State Sycamores swap to 30th and 31st respectively.

There have been a few that changed but overall, the algorithm is looking good. I think we can see where most teams will be.

And still one from each conference in both the top and bottom 4!
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 27, 2019 - 02:13 Reply with quote Back to top

After reeling from the most ear-piercing shriek ever to grace Texas, er, Texas E n' M, the Ottawa Bee-Bees rant and rave has made some very integral edits to the standings.

Should anyone else find that their team has been slighted in some way, well, we're grey and garnet and dead/f already, so, bring it on! The Bee-Bees are gonna take you down next season anyway!
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 27, 2019 - 15:35 Reply with quote Back to top

UCSD doesn't climb after beating the 3rd-ranked team?

_________________
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and Tackle Zones; reddened blades of grass.
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 27, 2019 - 19:38 Reply with quote Back to top

The Ottawa Bee-Bees, in an effort to maintain impartiality for this early version of the algorithm, does not have any extra weights for the ranking of your opposition.

Also note, that the previous posts all regard the predicted ranking based on end of season results, with the assumption that ALL teams will play the full 9 games.

So, your rankings already predicted that you would win (or not) the remaining games. For those mentioned in the second post, the ones who changed, that is because the results of their games didn't match the initial predictions.

Now, some of you, nay perhaps many, want to know: what is your standing now? Not the predicted standings!

For this, we will do two things. We will show the current standings, and compare them against the standings if we PURELY go on game results (instead of the far superior Ottawa Bee-Bees advanced calculator).

So here are the current standings:
TCU Horned Rats 1st (Ottawa Bee-Bees super awesome algorithm) vs 1st (games ranking)
California Golden Lizards 2nd vs 3 way tie for 5th
Miami BallHawks 3rd vs 2nd
SMU Mousestangs 4th vs 6th
Howlson Tigers 5th vs 6 way tie for 15th
UC San Drogo Krytens 6th vs 3 way tie for 5th
East Carolina Pyrates 7th vs 2 way tie for 9th
U-Dub Elfskies 2 way tie for 9th vs 3 way tie for 5th
Texas E n' M Banshees 2 way tie for 9th vs 6 way tie for 15th
UTEP Party Minors 10th vs 6 way tie for 15th
Karak University 11th vs 6 way tie for 15th
Duke Blue-Green Devils tie for 13th vs 19th
U of Wisconsin Rat-Grrrrs tied for 13th vs tied for 9th
Oregon Waterfowl 14th vs 16th
BYU Cougars 15th vs tied for 18th
Air Force Warpstone Falcons 16th vs tied for 30th
MZ State Bull Dawgz tied for 18th vs 3 way tie for 22nd
Berea Bleeding Angels tied for 18th vs tied for 26th
Bro-hio State Buckeyes 4 way tie for 22nd vs tied for 18th
Saint Louis Billikens 4 way tie for 22nd vs 6 way tie for 15th
Colgate Ultra-Brets 4 way tie for 22nd vs 3 way tie for 22nd
FlaSt Delfinoles 4 way for for 22nd vs 7th
Poli Puerkos 23rd vs 3 way tie for 22nd
Roald Amundsen Medical School tied for 25th vs tied for 24th
Ooklahoma Flingers tied for 25th vs tied for 26th
Illinois Valley CC Ranchers 26th vs 6 way tie for 15th
Univ. Central Florida Knights 27th vs tied for 24th
Purdue Braziermakers 28th vs 27th
Northern Virginia CC Hawks tied for 30th vs tied for 32nd
Zhar Naggarund Mountainers tied for 30th vs 28th
Isha-ana State Sycamores 31st vs tied for 30th
Notre Dame Flying Irish 32nd vs tied for 32nd
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 27, 2019 - 20:59 Reply with quote Back to top

For UCSD specifically, note that our algorithm predictions were both based on up to the end of the weekend only. I think your win was actually after that, as the current predictions have UCSD ending the season in 10th. (Which is obviously due to expecting a lot of your opposition to increase a fair bit with their remaining games, so if those games don't happen, you may end closer to the current 6th.)
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 30, 2019 - 21:32 Reply with quote Back to top

With the official* end of the season, we will now post our standings. We'll include both our final predictions if everyone could have played their remaining games, as well as the standings based purely on game results for comparison purposes.

From this we can see, Slaven are heavily favoredc in the current algorithm - but really *says the Skaven sorcerer Nelphine, coaching the Ottawa Bee-Bees, a team that literally got started as blood and brain collectors from the aftermath of bloody games* that's probably not an issue overall.

TCU Horned Rats 1st (Ottawa Bee-Bees algorithm) vs 1st (if all teams had played 9 games) vs 1st (pure games results)
California Golden Lizards 2nd vs 2nd vs tied for 5th
Miami BallHawks 3rd vs tied for 5th vs 3rd
U-Dub Elfskies 4th vs 6th vs 2nd
SMU Mousestangs 5th vs 3rd vs 6th
Howlson Tigers 6th vs 8th vs 5 way tie for 17th
Duke Blue-Green Devils 7th vs tied for 5th vs 3 way tie for 12th
UC San Drogo Krytens 8th vs tied for 10th vs tied for 5th
East Carolina Pyrates tied for 10th vs 7th vs 3 way tie for 12th
Oregon Waterfowl tied for 10th vs 11th vs 7th
Texas E n' M Banshees 11th vs tied for 13th vs 5 way tie for 17th
Air Force Warpstone Falcons 12th vs tied for 15th vs 28th
UTEP Party Minors tied for 14th vs tied for 17th vs 5 way tie for 17th
Colgate Ultra-Brets tied for 14th vs tied for 17th vs tied for 19th
Berea Bleeding Angels 15th vs 18th vs 21st
Karak University 16th vs 19th vs 5 way tie for 17th
MZ State Bull Dawgz tied for 18th vs tied for 13th vs tied for 22nd
U of Wisconsin Rat-Grrrrs tied for 18th vs tied for 21st vs 3 way tie for 12th
Bro-hio State Buckeyes 19th vs tied for 15th vs tied for 19th
Saint Louis Billikens tied for 221st vs 3 way tie for 24th vs tied for 9th
BYU Cougars tied for 21st vs 3 way tie for 24th vs 20th
Roald Amundsen Medical School 22nd vs tied for 10th vs tied for 22nd
FlaSt Delfinoles 23rd vs 3 way for for 21st vs tied for 9th
Poli Puerkos 24th vs 3 way tie for 24th vs 24th
Ooklahoma Flingers 25th vs tied for 29th vs 26th
Illinois Valley CC Ranchers 26th vs 26th vs 5 way tie for 17th
Univ. Central Florida Knights 27th vs 25th vs 25th
Northern Virginia CC Hawks 28th vs 27th vs tied for 32nd
Purdue Braziermakers 29th vs 30th vs 27th
Isha-ana State Sycamores 30th vs 31st vs tied 30th
Zhar Naggarund Mountainers 31st vs 32nd vs tied for 30th
Notre Dame Flying Irish 32nd vs tied for 29th vs tied for 32nd

*I don't make the official end, so more games could be played.
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