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daniel7582



Joined: Feb 01, 2020

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 03:06 Reply with quote Back to top

I've learned that if you just click your dodges really fast you always pass. Except when you don't
ShadowManes



Joined: Aug 01, 2021

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 03:08 Reply with quote Back to top

My conspiracy theory is there is a yearly sacrifice chosen to just have some of the most awful rolls at the times they need decent rolls and this year I was chosen. I can't prove it but I won't stop believing it

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Nuffle's Most Hated Disciple
Sp00keh



Joined: Dec 06, 2011

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 10:12 Reply with quote Back to top

Humans are very very good at pattern recognition. But: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

Apophenia (/æpoʊˈfiːniə/) is the tendency to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated things.[1] The term (German: Apophänie from the Greek verb ἀποφαίνειν (apophaínein)) was coined by psychiatrist Klaus Conrad in his 1958 publication on the beginning stages of schizophrenia.[2]
He defined it as "unmotivated seeing of connections [accompanied by] a specific feeling of abnormal meaningfulness".[3][4]
He described the early stages of delusional thought as self-referential over-interpretations of actual sensory perceptions, as opposed to hallucinations.[1][5]

Apophenia has also come to describe a human propensity to unreasonably seek definite patterns in random information, such as can occur in gambling.[4]
MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 11:25 Reply with quote Back to top

Christer said that the FUMBBL's RNG is semi-true, but in its description page
https://fumbbl.com/help:FFB_RNG
I read this:

"The Fantasy Football (FFB) client uses a random number generator (RNG) called Fortuna. This generator is designed by Bruce Schneier and Niels Ferguson and is a cryptographically secure implementation, which some consider to be a true RNG, meaning that it provides truly random numbers as opposed to other RNGs which provide pseudo random numbers."

There I read that some consider it to be a true RNG, not a semi-true RNG.
And, on that page, I read this too:

"Effectively, the RNG used by the FFB client is a modern, state-of-the-art generator which relies on very very strong cryptographic technology. The output of the generator has been run through rigorous tests of randomness (such as DIEHARD) and is effectively indistinguishable from true randomness.

From a theoretical perspective, the system may be a hairs-width from true randomness because of the fact that without rekeying, the 128 bit blocks of the AES crypto will not repeat. In a true random scenario, there's a non-zero chance of this happening. This effect is reduced because of the rekeyings, but between those, the random numbers are ever so slightly "too random". However, in an application where dice are being rolled the effect of this is not visible without many many billions of dice rolls. The discrepancy between true randomness and what this generator produces will certainly be less than one dice roll within the next million years (literally), regardless of how many games are being played in that time. This, of course, assumes that there are no bugs in the implementation."

"The system may be a hairs width from true randomness" and "The discrepancy between true randomness and what this generator produces will certainly be less than one dice roll within the next million years (literally)"

Now, if I understand correctly, the RNG used by FUMBBL is not a true random generator, but, since the difference between true randomness and this generator is very very small (1 dice roll in million years) it can be considered random enough, although it's not a true random generator, technically speaking.
Am I right? I don't think the RNG is broken, just I'd like to know which is the correct definition of it.
Is it a true random generator or not, with a technical, accurate definition?
It seems that it's not true random, but super close to real randomness.

And, by the way, why, if mouse movements are used to add true entropy to FUMBBL's RNG, the numbers are not truly random?
If it uses a source of real entropy, why at some point the generator is not true random?
I don't understand this part.
RDaneel



Joined: Feb 24, 2023

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 14:29 Reply with quote Back to top

Now I can see many coaches moving their mouse frantically for several seconds before attempting a critical rush.

Smile Smile Smile

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To judge a man, one must at least know the secret of his thoughts, his misfortunes, his emotions, Balzac
Garion



Joined: Aug 19, 2009

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 14:34 Reply with quote Back to top

RDaneel wrote:
Now I can see many coaches moving their mouse frantically for several seconds before attempting a critical rush.

Smile Smile Smile


I do this every time haha, it sadly doesnt work

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awambawamb



Joined: Feb 17, 2008

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 15:55 Reply with quote Back to top

Igvy wrote:
In games with peusdo-rng failing an action makes it more likely to succeed next time.
Also true that success drops the chance of success. The rng change isnt usually based on a roll but an outcome.


I've dropped a legit Ohm rune in like... 15 years of play. We all know the game I suppose

Also interesting is the story of the 50th Mersenne prime, or you can directly download a zip file containing this huge number in a txt file, organized in rows of 100 digits. There is no pattern recognized yet for those numbers, afaik

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"la virtù sta nel cielo e nella terra, ma anche nelle nuvole e nelle stelle"

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Garion



Joined: Aug 19, 2009

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 16:08 Reply with quote Back to top

MattDakka wrote:

And, by the way, why, if mouse movements are used to add true entropy to FUMBBL's RNG, the numbers are not truly random?
If it uses a source of real entropy, why at some point the generator is not true random?
I don't understand this part.


The real question is.... is anything truly random?

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MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 17:24 Reply with quote Back to top

I see, then we should never talk about true random, never ever.
If we are talking true and psedo-random we are making a difference between the two things.
awambawamb



Joined: Feb 17, 2008

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 19:15 Reply with quote Back to top

True randomness is still a matter of research. Some solution appear interesting:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mejo.2024.106142

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"la virtù sta nel cielo e nella terra, ma anche nelle nuvole e nelle stelle"

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Carthage



Joined: Mar 18, 2021

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 21:00 Reply with quote Back to top

I think terms are being mixed up here. The article written about the generator is talking about mathematical true randomness which is much much more exacting of a definition than people use colloquially. Your dice you play with at a tournament are likely many orders of magnitude less random than fumbbl's generator just based on the different face side weights from the divots, or how your roll them or which side were facing up before you rolled them, etc. Mathematical randomness means there are no external pressures that would allow you to predict the results of a set of rolls.
If you know those 3 things I just listed for hand rolling, you can predict, over enough rolls, how the distribution will look.
MerryZ



Joined: Nov 28, 2005

Post   Posted: May 22, 2024 - 23:14 Reply with quote Back to top

I dont like fumbbl random rolls that much where blue player clearly has the edge.

I prefer my own die on table where skill of the wrist comes to play.

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Kaptain Awasoam, Dicer of All Men and Women and Children and Puppies.
Drrek



Joined: Jul 23, 2012

Post   Posted: May 23, 2024 - 00:44 Reply with quote Back to top

Is it only the mouse movements of coaches that impact the RNG, or can we in the audience mess with the RNG of an important roll?
Carthage



Joined: Mar 18, 2021

Post   Posted: May 23, 2024 - 00:51 Reply with quote Back to top

I'm reminded of that old bud light commercial where the entire stadium holds their breaths for field goal attempts.
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: May 23, 2024 - 03:38 Reply with quote Back to top

Drrek wrote:
Is it only the mouse movements of coaches that impact the RNG, or can we in the audience mess with the RNG of an important roll?
oh, man... For every epic /stomp or /cheer war, we would also get a huge seismic (more-or-less literally) influx of entropy, like some massive invocation to Nuffle!

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Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor.
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