Lirisa
Joined: Mar 07, 2017
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 Posted:
Mar 08, 2017 - 09:31 |
 
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Hello, guys, I'm new to Blood Bowl/Fumbbl. I've only been winning through concessions. I feel like I'm either playing to loose with probabilities for example always to throw one die blocks without block skill or playing to conservitely for example, not trying to make a GFI ever.
Some thoughts:
Blocking
I know there are other useful skills for the attacker and defender, such as dauntless,which equalizes strength based on a die roll, and say disturbing presence which makes the attacker roll to see if they carry out the attack as ordered, though I'm only going to focus only whether the attacker has block or if the defender has block and/or dodge for the moment and maybe a mention of tackle.
1 die
1 die no skills - 1/3 chance of turnover. 1/3 chance of pushing opponent, 1/3 chance knocking only defender down, including both down 1/2
1 die defender has dodge/ attacker no skills - a 1/3 chance of turnover, 1/2 chance of pushing opponent,1/6 chance of only opponent being knocked down, 1/3 including both down
1 die defender has dodge and block/ attacker no skills - a 1/3 chance of turnover, 1/2 chance of pushing opponent,1/6 chance of opponent being knocked down.
1 die attacker has block, defender doesn't have any skills 1/6 chance of turnover, 1/2 chance of knocking defender down, 1/3 chance of push
1 die attacker has block, defender has block - 1/6 chance of turnover, 1/3 chance of knocking defender down, 1/3 chance of push
1 die attacker has block, defender has block and dodge - 1/6 chance of turnover, 1/2 of pushing defender, 1/6 of knocking defender down
From this, it seems to me it is only really worth trying when the attacker has block and the other player doesn't have block or dodge.
2 dice -
Pushing
20/36 rolls or a 5/9 chance of showing a natural push,
4 of those rolls are only pushes.
4 of those rolls are with defender stumbles,
4 of those rolls are with defender down
4 of those rolls are with both down.
4 of those are with attacker down.
If the attacker doesn't have block and the defender doesn't have dodge,
4 rolls the push is the only option
8 rolls it's a push or turnover, so the push is the likely option meaning 12/36 rolls attacker is more than likely, the other 8 the opponent is knocked down, so the player will probably elect to take the knock down instead unless there is threat to send the player off. So if considering the chance only plays where the dice don't show a knock down or 1/3. If attacker has block,and defender doesn't,pushes that are not knock down results is 8/36 or 2/9 chance.
If opponent has dodge,and the defender stumbles adds 7 more push results,assuming the attacker doesn't have tackle
making 27/36 rolls having a push result, or 3/4 chance
9 rolls for only push results.
6 roll of those rolls are with defender down
6 of those rolls are with both down.
6 of those rolls are with attacker down.
If the defender has dodge,and attacker doesn't have block or tackle:
9 of the rolls push is the only option, 12 of those rolls with turnover, 21 rolls the attacker is likely to choose to elect to push.
6 of those rolls are with defender down, so attacker will likely elect to choose the knock down. 21/36 or 7/12 of rolling a non-knock down push.
If attacker has block,and defender doesn't,pushes that are not knock down results are 15/36 or 5/12 chance.
A non-dodge player around a third of the time the player will be pushed, so plan for the eventuality. Pushes are going to occur either a little more or less than half the time with a dodge player,so one should have an idea where the next pushes are going to be placed.
Knock-downs
No skills for attacker or defender,
20/36 rolls or a 5/9 chance result only the defender is knocked down.
If the attacker has block and the defender doesn't have block or dodge, 27/ 36 or 3/4 chance of a knock down.
If defender has dodge and block, 11/36 chance.
The defender has block,attacker has block 11/36 chance.
If the defender has only dodge, attacker has block, 20\36 rolls knock down or 5/9 chance.
Observations, having dodge can be really good in defense, but having block helps defense and offense.
If one can take block first, then take dodge.
Turnover risk:
Without block, 4/36 rolls are a turnover 3 of the rolls include both down with at least one die. With block,1/36 rolls is a turnover.
With two dice without block the turnover chance is 1/9, with one die without block it's 1/3 chance. If player uses two dice they triple their chances of not suffering a turnover if they don't have the block skill. If a player has block and uses only one die the chances 1/6 are similar to throwing to dice without block 1/9.
Using a block player with two dice as opposed to one without, significantly improves the chances of success in surviving and blocking.
GFI - The risk is the same of throwing a one die block with block so perhaps, it could be worth in certain circumstances.
Armor break chances.
Armor 1 - 36/36
Armor 2 - 35/36
Armor 3 - 33/36
Armor 4 - 32/36
Armor 5 - 30/36
Armor 6 - 26/36
Armor 7 - 15/36
Armor 8 - 8/36
Armor 9 - 4/36
Armor 10- 3/36
Armor 11- 1/36
Armor 12- 0/36
Does anyone know a reference to a handy chart of three dice blocks? Any mistakes? Suggestions? |
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Wreckage
Joined: Aug 15, 2004
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| Posted:
Mar 08, 2017 - 09:56 |
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Hi, nice to have a fellow coach here who appreciates looking at probabilities.
I don't have a chart for three dice blocks but you may want to look at this little handy tool.
Should be able to quickly give you insight on the 3-dice stats.
The AV table rolls are slightly off.
There is a little trick to calculate those odds quickly.
You basically just add in /36er probabilities starting by one
+2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +5 +4 +3 +2
and you get
1/36 3/36 6/36 10/36 15/36 21/36 26/36 30/36 33/36 35/36 |
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The_Murker
Joined: Jan 30, 2011
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| Posted:
Mar 08, 2017 - 10:13 |
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I don't see any obvious question you have asked the forum, so I'm not sure of the type of feedback you are looking for.
A quick glance over your math seems like you have the nuts and bolts right. However, how you best apply this math is subjective. Every turn is different. Sometimes a 1 in 6 chance of success is THE best shot at a victory. Sometimes a 35/36 chance of success is the worst move one could make.
The one thing you have said is that you don't win much. This means that the dice rolls you do make are not paying off, and/or you are not letting your opponent roll enough dice.
In general, you should be able to quickly decide on the most risky play you want to make each turn, and you need to make all of the other NON-risky moves before that one. Decide if your risky play is going to suceed, or fail. If you gamble it will succeed, make sure you are ready for that success, by making all non-risky supporting moves, and any REQUIRED supporting risky moves. (no point in trying to pick up a ball in turn 15 if you haven't dodged away and put into scoring range at least one guy first) It is a common rookie mistake to be unprepared for their own success or good luck. Why try and drop the enemy ball carrier if no one on your team has any real hope of picking it up? Rookies try it all the time.
Also, if you have a very important move to make in a turn, making ANY UNrelated non-risky action first is just asking for double skulls to steal your re-roll. Don't do unrelated stuff first during key turns.
Another rookie mistake is to always be the one rolling the dice, taking action with risky plays, trying to prevent the enemy from scoring. What this does, rolling dice, is prevent the opponent from having to roll as many dice. Rolling dice leads to bad things. Sometimes very bad. Sometimes you just need to realize you have a big crap sandwich to eat, move most or all of your guys into contact with the enemy, and hope the enemy fails something horribly before he bashes your brains in. The closer to turn 8 you make your desperation moves, the more of a chance you will have of the enemy being unable to recover from his horrible luck.
But if you do silly or dumb things on turn 2, expect to lose.
Remember, in the game of Blood Bowl, horrible things will happen. You should always try to be prepared for something bad to happen to your enemy. This is why skaven gutter-runners are so dangerous. With MA9, AG4, dodge.. these ninjas are ready to pounce on an enemy's misfortune no matter when or where it happens.
If you are never in a position to benefit from an enemy's bad luck, it is always going to seem like your opponents never have any. Life is tough for a dwarf team whose coach is anything less than 'above average' on offense or defense.
YOU don't have to be the only one failing GFI's and killing yourself. Let the enemy roll some dice. |
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zakatan
Joined: May 17, 2008
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| Posted:
Mar 08, 2017 - 10:32 |
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this may help:
https://fumbbl.com/help:The+Taoch%21+of+Blood+Bowl%3A+A+Condensed+Guide+for+Newbies
As a rule of a thumb, remember that 1/6 fail rate is unacceptably high most of the time. 1/3 fail rate should only be taken in emergency situations or if the benefits of succeeding are great. BB is a game of risk management, so you only have to take high risks when the reward is very high.
Always think that you will fail before starting and action, and the position the failure will leave you into.
3+ dodge to start your turn? Reconsider your strategy because you'll waste your entire turn.
3+ dodge as your last action of the turn? Consider how bad your defense will be without that tackle zone as opposed to how great the new positioning might be.
3+ dodge from a CPOMB monster as your last action? Consider the benefit from having a psychopath free to blitz vs the risk of having you CPOMBed upon. In this situation, the value of the player is to be considered too, since man-marking a killer with a lino can be a decent thing if it prevents valuable players from being murdered. Never man-mark a killer with a valuable player though, you'd rather fail that dodge 
Anyway:
- Assess the risk of failure and the situation it will leave you before every action and act accordingly.
- Plan your turn ahead and try to perform lower risk actions earlier in the turn.
- On offense, keep the ball safe at all times, so that a failure doesn't leave you too exposed.
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Lirisa
Joined: Mar 07, 2017
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| Posted:
Mar 08, 2017 - 16:25 |
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Thanks for your thoughts and corrections guys.^^ I finished this very late so I got a little confused on what I meant to ask.I guess my thoughts were if I organized some probabilities I could have better idea of where to start with how to manage risk management when developing general ideas of approach.
About making non-risky plays first, I have a bad habit of thinking do I want to blitz with any of these guys on the ground, and so I can't decide make a few blocks, and I end up leaving like half of my team on the ground because of silliness.I got to get into the habit of just doing moves free of dice rolls first, generally,stand ups, then ideally 2 dice with block, 2 dice without block, 1 die with block t The one exception I don't tend to try less risky plays first is GFIs, I tend to do those last as I feel,a knock-down anywhere could improve my situation where how much that one-two square helps,and if I fail and with few people left to move, I'm not all to bothered about rerolling the critical failure where if I didn't move like 8 of my players I'll want to use a reroll.. Considering the position if you fail does seem like a good idea, because there were times I would do a risky play suffer a turnover, and be like "Ahhh, now I'm in a horrible spot!" I mean just being aware of what the position would be would give better context if a play is worth the risk or not.
Thanks for your thoughts, guys.^^ |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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| Posted:
Mar 08, 2017 - 16:28 |
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Hi and welcome!
When in doubt about probabilities, go to this awesome site created by Elyoukey:
http://www.elyoukey.com/sac/
| Lirisa wrote: |
disturbing presence which makes the attacker roll to see if they carry out the attack as ordered
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Disturbing Presence doesn't prevent blocks, Foul Appearance does that.
Disturbing Presence applies a -1 modifier to passing, catching and interceptions rolls to opponent players within 3 squares of Disturbing Presence player. |
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Lirisa
Joined: Mar 07, 2017
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| Posted:
Mar 09, 2017 - 02:20 |
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Opps! Thanks for the correction. |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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| Posted:
Mar 09, 2017 - 02:22 |
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| Lirisa wrote: | | Opps! Thanks for the correction. |
You're welcome.
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