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spinball



Joined: Jul 01, 2004

Post   Posted: Aug 15, 2023 - 04:07 Reply with quote Back to top

In 2019 there was a prediction thread about which teams were going to do best at world cup.

So I am thinking about starting that conversation up again.

Here is how it will work.

You pick 2 teams if you are attending

Or

Pick 3 teams if you are NOT attending

At the end of the tourney the person that pick the teams that finished the best collectively wins. Also for a tie breaker, on said teams, pick the coach you think finishes with the best record.

I will start

My team

The Syndicate (top coach LoneWolfJackson)

My picks

All the President's men (top coach geggster)

Chimera (top coach strider84)


I don't have anything to offer as a prize to the first place finisher, but bragging rights. But if someone has a prize they would like to present one I wouldn't be opposed.
Endrophil



Joined: Nov 16, 2015

Post   Posted: Aug 15, 2023 - 06:28 Reply with quote Back to top

My Team

Zwo Eins Risiko

My picks

Zwo Eins Risiko (top coach Sprinter) - gotta have some faith in ourselves Smile

Alfea (top coach Diomlord)
BiBi



Joined: Jun 09, 2011

Post   Posted: Aug 15, 2023 - 12:16 Reply with quote Back to top

To make choices easier, here are the teams ranked by average NAF ratings : https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/mike.sann0638.davies/viz/NAFGamesusingWC5rules/SquadList

Credits to sann Smile
Tripleskull



Joined: Oct 12, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 15, 2023 - 13:02 Reply with quote Back to top

The Mad Hateful Seven(shirokov)

COCORIPOW(olivierdulac)

My team: Chimera(Harti)


Last edited by Tripleskull on Aug 16, 2023 - 21:18; edited 2 times in total
spinball



Joined: Jul 01, 2004

Post   Posted: Aug 15, 2023 - 13:50 Reply with quote Back to top

Tripleskull wrote:


Why the difference in number of teams picked?


It should be either 2 plus your team if you are going to world cup.

OR

3 teams if you are not attending
Tripleskull



Joined: Oct 12, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 15, 2023 - 18:52 Reply with quote Back to top

spinball wrote:
Tripleskull wrote:


Why the difference in number of teams picked?


It should be either 2 plus your team if you are going to world cup.

OR

3 teams if you are not attending


Great in that case I have top three down. Wink
dementor42



Joined: Oct 27, 2017

Post   Posted: Aug 16, 2023 - 19:25 Reply with quote Back to top

My team - Little Gitz (sann0638)

My picks (or can they not be the same as anyone else's?)
COCORIPOW (olivierdulac)
Chimera (Straume)
dementor42



Joined: Oct 27, 2017

Post   Posted: Aug 16, 2023 - 23:00 Reply with quote Back to top

I think the fact that three of us have picked Chimera and three separate top finishers says something about how stacked Chimera is Very Happy
PurpleChest



Joined: Oct 25, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 16, 2023 - 23:26
FUMBBL Staff
Reply with quote Back to top

My Team: Team Fumbbl (JB)

Pick 1: Chimera (justicium)

Pick 2: COCORIPOW (simon_acp)

_________________
Barbarus hic ego sum, quia non intelligor illis -Ovid
I am a barbarian here because i am not understood by anyone
spinball



Joined: Jul 01, 2004

Post   Posted: Aug 17, 2023 - 19:29 Reply with quote Back to top

dementor42 wrote:
My team - Little Gitz (sann0638)

My picks (or can they not be the same as anyone else's?)
COCORIPOW (olivierdulac)
Chimera (Straume)


Yes they can be the same as others, but if you get the same as someone else you better be right with the tie breakers.
dementor42



Joined: Oct 27, 2017

Post   Posted: Aug 22, 2023 - 06:36 Reply with quote Back to top

Bump.
Would be cool to get more people involved in this
HenningEksteen



Joined: Sep 30, 2022

Post   Posted: Aug 22, 2023 - 13:09 Reply with quote Back to top

BiBi wrote:
To make choices easier, here are the teams ranked by average NAF ratings : https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/mike.sann0638.davies/viz/NAFGamesusingWC5rules/SquadList

Credits to sann Smile


I saw this and got a bit carried away...

My team is: Dutch Pirates (edwin)

I decided to do my own analysis based on the rankings. Taking the average NAF ranking works well when the coaches compete individually, however, it won't work so well in a team tournament because pairings are more rigid: The best performing coach will face the opposition's best performing coach, 2nd best vs 2nd best etc.

Thus, I took another approach to try and mimic how players will be paired. I first ordered the players in each team from highest to lowest NAF ranking to get a hypothetical table 1 to table 6. I then ranked each coach in relation to all teams' coaches that play on the same hypothetical table to give me their seeding. I used the seedings to calculate the average seeding of the team which I then ranked from lowest to highest to give a new expected final position of the participating teams.

https://imgur.com/MVmYXOr

I then went further and calculated the top 4 seeded players of each team and used that to create a new ranking. I say this because a win on any 4 tables mean a win for the team irrespective of the remaining two tables' results.

https://imgur.com/QHqcxQW

EDIT:
I show the two teams in Bold and the 3rd team in italics as I am actually going to the WC but I'm showing 3rd because it's interesting

Based on the Global ELO Year High ranking, my teams to look out for are:

1. COCORIPOW (olivierdulac)
2. The Mad Hateful Seven (javin23)

3. Masters Of Tilea (spartako)

Based on the Global ELO Current ranking, my teams to look out for are:

1. COCORIPOW (olivierdulac)
2. Masters Of Tilea (spartako)

3. Chimera (jokaero)

Based on the NAF ranking for all races, my teams to look out for are:

1. The Mad Hateful Seven (javin23)
2. Holy Six (molok)

3. COCORIPOW (olivierdulac)
Ranzimus



Joined: Oct 05, 2007

Post   Posted: Aug 22, 2023 - 19:24 Reply with quote Back to top

I have played against and drank with the Old Guard and i want them to do well and have a blast. They will
Purplegoo



Joined: Mar 23, 2006

Post   Posted: Aug 22, 2023 - 21:18 Reply with quote Back to top

It’s massive and the difference between the best squad and the 15th (maybe even the 25th) is probably not greater than a bum racial draw and / or a couple of 40 / 60 dice games and a OTS. One loss, maybe even one tie, and you’re done. It’s glorious chaos at this size (both squad and event).

Asterisk now lodged front and centre, I’ll play the game.

My team: ATPM, Lycos (because Underworld).

Pick 1: Mad Hateful Seven, Duke_Luthor (top player / chap and home advantage).

Pick 2: Alfea, Yena (Alfea have been tearing it up for a few years on the big team tournament circuit, which I would put ahead of rankings).
Strider84



Joined: Jun 03, 2009

Post   Posted: Aug 22, 2023 - 22:47 Reply with quote Back to top

So btw I will be doing a fantasy draft over on the Eurobowl Discord on August 27th at 22:00 CET if anyone is interested ping me or ping Volkajo to add you to the channel.
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