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2010-02-06 14:15:05
31 votes, rating 3.2
31 votes, rating 3.2
High Elf CAS stats FUBAR continues ...
Just played 2 games with my HEs against two different skaven teams. First one - picked up 1 SI (-ma, apo fail) and had one guy killed by a rock. Second one - took 1 BH and 3SIs (apo failed AGAIN).
Looks like my ridiculous run of terrible CAS stats with HEs is continuing, with no sign of improving whatsoever. I love high elves, but I swear this happens literally every time I play with these guys.
My first HE team got shafted by the cas dice (24/30/10) and I thought things couldn't get much worse with the second one ... oh, but they have ----> 15/22/9.
I mean, come on! Between the two teams they've had 110 CAS in 47 games:
35.5% BH 47.3% SI 17.3% RIP
Supposed average:
50% BH 33.3% SI 16.7% RIP
It pretty much speaks for itself. That's 14% more SIs than they should have had, which is 15.4 extra SIs between the two teams. That hurts when replacement linos cost 70k a pop. And it's not just mng, a large proportion of them are niggles and - stats. And before you ask, they're not elfballers, but no, it's not as if they've been playing against loads of bashy teams with tons of MB, claw, DP, etc. And besides, those things don't affect the CAS rolls anyway.
I'll keep going with the team, because I'm a stubborn, determined b***ard and I really do hope things start to improve. However, I have to say that it's starting to shake my trust in the evenness of the RNG, although so far I've given it the benefit of the doubt. I really love Fumbbl, but one of the few things that might convince me to leave is if I genuinely believe that the RNG is screwed. If that were the case, there'd just be no point playing.
Looks like my ridiculous run of terrible CAS stats with HEs is continuing, with no sign of improving whatsoever. I love high elves, but I swear this happens literally every time I play with these guys.
My first HE team got shafted by the cas dice (24/30/10) and I thought things couldn't get much worse with the second one ... oh, but they have ----> 15/22/9.
I mean, come on! Between the two teams they've had 110 CAS in 47 games:
35.5% BH 47.3% SI 17.3% RIP
Supposed average:
50% BH 33.3% SI 16.7% RIP
It pretty much speaks for itself. That's 14% more SIs than they should have had, which is 15.4 extra SIs between the two teams. That hurts when replacement linos cost 70k a pop. And it's not just mng, a large proportion of them are niggles and - stats. And before you ask, they're not elfballers, but no, it's not as if they've been playing against loads of bashy teams with tons of MB, claw, DP, etc. And besides, those things don't affect the CAS rolls anyway.
I'll keep going with the team, because I'm a stubborn, determined b***ard and I really do hope things start to improve. However, I have to say that it's starting to shake my trust in the evenness of the RNG, although so far I've given it the benefit of the doubt. I really love Fumbbl, but one of the few things that might convince me to leave is if I genuinely believe that the RNG is screwed. If that were the case, there'd just be no point playing.
Comments
Posted by Calthor on 2010-02-06 15:13:37
RNG is not meant to give you average dice, it's meant to give you random dice that will eventually average out.
In short,
you've had some bad luck. It all evens out though.
In short,
you've had some bad luck. It all evens out though.
Posted by Ancre on 2010-02-06 15:33:04
Rated 6 out of compassion, I have had similar streaks of bad luck too. But it will all average out in the end :)
Posted by JellyBelly on 2010-02-06 16:17:30
@ Calthor: Sure, i understand that. Each individual roll is random, however the underlying stats are not supposed to be random and the results should come into line with this as the sample size increases.
It's not just one game I'm moaning about; I don't think 49 games is an insignificant sample size. Still, I'll be happy enough if it evens out more over the next 50 games.
It's not just one game I'm moaning about; I don't think 49 games is an insignificant sample size. Still, I'll be happy enough if it evens out more over the next 50 games.
Posted by Kelkka on 2010-02-06 16:25:08
I know the feeling, tho RNG isn't broken, you just had pretty bad luck. That's all.
52 SI's in 110 CAS is quite good achievement.
Hang in there, it will get better sooner or later!
And remember that you affect your luck with your own actions.
I had couple of (now retired) low AV teams, they suffered about 3 CAS per game on average. I know I'm quite sucky coaching those fast/agile teams, but I guess that's the deal with them:
get hurt a lot, but still be able the win the match.
52 SI's in 110 CAS is quite good achievement.
Hang in there, it will get better sooner or later!
And remember that you affect your luck with your own actions.
I had couple of (now retired) low AV teams, they suffered about 3 CAS per game on average. I know I'm quite sucky coaching those fast/agile teams, but I guess that's the deal with them:
get hurt a lot, but still be able the win the match.
Posted by LordSnotball on 2010-02-06 22:30:11
Just checked my 3 HE teams to see their stats:
38/26/13 (77) in 30 matches [L], 2.566 cas / match
16/15/5 (36) in 14 matches [R], 2.571 cas / match
and
17/6/2 (25) in 8 matches [B], 3.125 cas/match
and all 3 teams have a winning record. With HEs i think you take cas and retire players to cull the team, control the TR and help the team evolve smoothly. Its when you don't lose players that you end up having problems...
The RNG works, for the simple reason that ur team has a winning record, 20 (10/4/6), meaning that you are good at assessing how to use a situation, and succeed on average 55-60% of your dice rolls (in-game luckometre). If you dodge and pass and GFI and hand off and score, at some point your opponent will have to roll good dice too.
Don't worry too much, low TR low on players works in your favour with HEs, and the SIs mean that the rest of your team develop smoothly, so when u have a full team, 11 players, ur TR150 team will perform like a TR165-170 team :)
IMO of course
38/26/13 (77) in 30 matches [L], 2.566 cas / match
16/15/5 (36) in 14 matches [R], 2.571 cas / match
and
17/6/2 (25) in 8 matches [B], 3.125 cas/match
and all 3 teams have a winning record. With HEs i think you take cas and retire players to cull the team, control the TR and help the team evolve smoothly. Its when you don't lose players that you end up having problems...
The RNG works, for the simple reason that ur team has a winning record, 20 (10/4/6), meaning that you are good at assessing how to use a situation, and succeed on average 55-60% of your dice rolls (in-game luckometre). If you dodge and pass and GFI and hand off and score, at some point your opponent will have to roll good dice too.
Don't worry too much, low TR low on players works in your favour with HEs, and the SIs mean that the rest of your team develop smoothly, so when u have a full team, 11 players, ur TR150 team will perform like a TR165-170 team :)
IMO of course
Posted by Zombie69 on 2010-02-07 01:27:51
For such a small sample, this is totally within what one could expect. I'm seen much, much worse.
Posted by JellyBelly on 2010-02-07 10:56:08
@ LordSnotball: Yeah ... I'm not complaining about bad rolls & losing games, it's the excessive amount of CAS they take (seemingly relentlessly) & the highly skewed CAS stats, which are evident from the figures. Yes, I am able to win games with them, even though they get shafted by the CAS dice and I'm often starting games with 8-9 players, but it would be nice to one day play a game with them at more than 120 TS.
(the in-game luckmeter is a pile of cack, btw ... I don't think it even takes into account armour rolls, nor injury rolls or KO rolls at the end of a drive, which all have a huge effect on the game)
@ Zombie69: I wouldn't say 110 CAS rolls over 50 games is that small a sample. I would expect the stats to be converging much more towards the average by that point.
(the in-game luckmeter is a pile of cack, btw ... I don't think it even takes into account armour rolls, nor injury rolls or KO rolls at the end of a drive, which all have a huge effect on the game)
@ Zombie69: I wouldn't say 110 CAS rolls over 50 games is that small a sample. I would expect the stats to be converging much more towards the average by that point.
Posted by Shimin on 2010-02-07 12:02:36
When using statistics, you should know, that it doesnt always smooth out in the end. Its just a majority of the results that will align itself within these numbers. In basic, if RNG has to be random, it should also produce a number of unlikely but possible results (as your team). Since the RNG holds no remembrance of your previous results, theoretically you could get even more RIP's and SI's (but it is unlikely to have et skewed that way).
BTW: Have you tried to recalculate with all your teams? I think i saw a few skewed the reversed way.
BTW: Have you tried to recalculate with all your teams? I think i saw a few skewed the reversed way.
Posted by Catalyst32 on 2010-02-07 16:51:39
You aren't complaining about bad rolls & losing games... ok fine you are winning... but you are still complaining about bad rolls.
Did it ever occur to you that the dice rolls that are hurting you with you CAS are the very same rolls you WISH you could get when you handoff or pass or dodge?
It isn't the RNG's fault that it gave you great Agility Table dice when you were rolling on the AV or CAS Tables. The RNG just generates numbers... randomly. It doesn't decide WHEN it will roll a 1 or a 6... or double 6's or 5 1's in a row... those things just occur randomly. Roll some dice yourself... you could just easily roll the exact same dice.
Did it ever occur to you that if the RNG gave you all the 1's and 2's you desire for your AV and CAS results that it might also give them to you on your fisrt AG Table rolls of each turn. Try winning that way.
Did it ever occur to you that the dice rolls that are hurting you with you CAS are the very same rolls you WISH you could get when you handoff or pass or dodge?
It isn't the RNG's fault that it gave you great Agility Table dice when you were rolling on the AV or CAS Tables. The RNG just generates numbers... randomly. It doesn't decide WHEN it will roll a 1 or a 6... or double 6's or 5 1's in a row... those things just occur randomly. Roll some dice yourself... you could just easily roll the exact same dice.
Did it ever occur to you that if the RNG gave you all the 1's and 2's you desire for your AV and CAS results that it might also give them to you on your fisrt AG Table rolls of each turn. Try winning that way.
Posted by JellyBelly on 2010-02-07 19:46:28
I'd much rather have that - I can reroll those or use dodge/pass etc. And if I fail those then it doesn't cost me players ...
Besides, I thought that AV & CAS rolls are rolls that my opponent makes for my players, rather than rolls that I make? I always hope that my opponent rolls 1s ...
:D
Besides, I thought that AV & CAS rolls are rolls that my opponent makes for my players, rather than rolls that I make? I always hope that my opponent rolls 1s ...
:D