torsoboy
Joined: Nov 23, 2004
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  Posted:
Feb 06, 2018 - 20:20 |
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Thunderfrog wrote: | When should one consider fouling more important, and less important?
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For example, if I want to foul |
Well you kinda answered your own question |
_________________ The plural of anecdote isn't data. |
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Arktoris
Joined: Feb 16, 2004
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  Posted:
Feb 06, 2018 - 20:28 |
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Thunderfrog wrote: | When should one consider fouling more important, and less important?
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when the voices in your head say, "Do it! Do it now!" |
_________________ Hail to Manowar! The latest charioteer to DIE for bloodbowl! - Slain, by Ghor Oggaz |
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DarthPhysicist
Joined: Jun 14, 2015
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 01:03 |
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when it hurts the most. |
_________________ Using derivative humor since 2005.
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uzkulak
Joined: Mar 30, 2004
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 01:04 |
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Use a team with cheap linemen - get a lot of them and then foul every time when you can get 3+ assists on more valuable players. This should be at least 4 times a half if you are doing it right. At worst this will prevent your opponent from sending dangerous players into your backfield, ie giving you more control of the drive.
Ive found a lot of coaches on this site don't really know how to defend properly against fouling and are quite happy to expose their best players to gang fouling. |
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Keothi
Joined: Jul 08, 2013
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 02:18 |
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Thunderfrog. By no means a complete answer on probabilities; but you can calculate AV breaks + Injury probabilities using the Samba Calculator (link provided below).
I wish Samba had included at the least Mighty Blow skill to the script so that you can see the improvement the +1 to AV OR injury can have (DP is essentially the Foul version of MB); you can tweak the AV value to see the effects of assists on the foul eg reduce the opponent's AV by 1 point for every assist you want to add in. Typically 2-3 assists + DP is achievable in a game. For example, if you can achieve an AV break on a 6+ roll (2D6) you're looking at 72.22% success rate, by the time you accept that a CAS or KO is an acceptable result you're looking at roughly 30% success rate. This is compared to a risk of a send-off result of 33.33% (send-off is 1/6 probability for the AV roll + 1/6 probability for the Injury roll). You have a 1/6 chance of successfully arguing the call (16.67%) and equal odds of being banned for the match.
http://www.elyoukey.com/sac/
Hope that helps you building a table of odds of success against different AV opponents and how many assists you need to create favourable odds. |
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smallman
Joined: Sep 24, 2007
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 02:33 |
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A lot of my opponents seem obsessed with fouling which just makes my win so much easier unless they are extremely lucky |
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tussock
Joined: May 29, 2011
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 07:30 |
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If you didn't get all my DPs out so quick, I wouldn't need to be so lucky! |
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Joost
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 08:41 |
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Wreckage wrote: |
A min. K.O. happens on an 8+ so (1+2+3+4+5)/36 = 15/36 = ~41.67%. A ban under the new rules is (1-(5/6)^2)*5/6 = ~24.46%, assuming the armor breaks and the coach has not been banned.
But keep in mind that a 100% armor break is incredibly unlikely. To set up the necessary assists for that you'd have to essentially abandon any other activity on the field and just crowd your whole team around a player... in reality if you don't want to abandon all strategy, setting up a foul with just 2 or 3 assists is usually not that easy. |
unless you're playing against dwarfs with their thick skulls. Or nurgles with regen. Im always hesitant to foul then, since the success rate seems low. (But ive never done the math) |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 09:29 |
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Regen just means half the injuries go to reserves instead
In the last drive of the game, it's as good as an injury
In the last turn of the first half, it's the same as a stun |
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PurpleChest
Joined: Oct 25, 2003
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I faced a legendary coach, with a pimped up League rat team, a natural one turner, another needing only 1 step and a big deep roster.
I had no real plan, and very little tackle even. My poor elves looked like facing a game of chasing rat tails and trying to keep the scores close to even.
But when he joined he wrote:
'Well as there's no way you can stop me scoring, I guess it's just down to who scores more.'
But i had a few loners. And they have boots. I swear until he said that, I wasn't going to. But i did. I kicked that team to bugger and back, SI's to 2 rats, including the natural one turner. Won 2-0.
Some games, and some guys, demand fouling. |
_________________ Barbarus hic ego sum, quia non intelligor illis -Ovid
I am a barbarian here because i am not understood by anyone |
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Foad
Joined: Sep 02, 2007
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 14:11 |
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Traul wrote: | Thunderfrog wrote: | ~ill-conceived psedo-math~ |
That math is not correct: probabilities do not subtract. The probability to be sent off is 33% x 5/6 (probability that the Argue call fails) = 28%. |
Not getting picky but your math is also out. Probability in getting sent on AV roll is 1/6, and odds of getting sent on the injury roll are 1/6.
That's not 2/6 to get sent.
It's 25/36 of not getting sent, 10/36 of getting spotted on one of the rolls, and 1/36 of getting spotted on both rolls (same result as being spotted once). That's 11/36 or 30.56%, which becomes 25.46% if you argue the call (assuming you break armour).
Don't sweat the math when math is not your thing, there's far wiser advice out there. Like this:
PurpleChest wrote: | Some games, and some guys, demand fouling. |
Damn I Like This.
If it feels right, foul. Own it, without regret. Even if it's a double-1.
Zero regrets. |
_________________ They see me Trollin', they hatin'...
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awambawamb
Joined: Feb 17, 2008
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 14:19 |
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whenever you can, drop the boot.
T16 foul are just amazing. |
_________________ "la virtù sta nel cielo e nella terra, ma anche nelle nuvole e nelle stelle"
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 15:17 |
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Chance to get sent off because you rolled doubles on armor = 1/6 = 16.66%
Chance to get sent off because you broke armor then rolled doubles on injury = varies between 2.32% and 13.88%
Total chance per foul of getting sent off = between 18.98% and 30.55%, in a nearly linear relationship with (armor minus assists)
Dirty players have a roughly +1.5% extra chance to get sent off because they break armor more often
(Varies between +0.39 and +2.31%)
AV = target armor value, after assists
sentoff = chance of being sent off
dirty = chance of dirty player being sent off
Code: | AV sentoff dirty
10 18.98% 20.52%
9 20.52% 22.45%
8 22.45% 24.77%
7 24.77% 26.70%
6 26.70% 28.24%
5 28.24% 29.40%
4 29.40% 30.17%
3 30.17% 30.56%
2 30.56% 30.56% |
If you then argue the call, you reduce the send off numbers by 1/6ths
So the range of sent-off chances was between 18.98% - 30.55%, decreases to 15.82 - 25.46% instead
As a rule of thumb, your fouler gets sent off about 1/5th of the time |
Last edited by Sp00keh on %b %10, %2018 - %10:%Feb; edited 7 times in total |
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PurpleChest
Joined: Oct 25, 2003
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smallman wrote: | A lot of my opponents seem obsessed with fouling | ...me... smallman wrote: | which just makes my win so much easier unless they are extremely lucky |
Fixed it for you
But actually it is also because you play with a very few key components and skilless filler to keep your TV down. Add your 0 rerolls, to keep your TV down, and you have to play through those few players as their skills are your only safety net, to keep your TV down. Removing those players makes tactical sense as it is where what little TV you have is utilised and you have no plan B, because of keeping your TV low. When it works, you lose, as your low TV is achieved by having a lot of dross on the roster. When it fails, their players are safely out of a dull game against a team with a very low TV and several highly skilled players and avoid your 1-2 killer players. |
_________________ Barbarus hic ego sum, quia non intelligor illis -Ovid
I am a barbarian here because i am not understood by anyone |
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Dalfort
Joined: Jun 23, 2008
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  Posted:
Feb 07, 2018 - 19:34 |
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One of my early lessons on this site was fouling to save my players from being mauled... |
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