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MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: Oct 15, 2017 - 14:17 Reply with quote Back to top

If the coach reappears, he retains his place, though.
I'm suggesting that if you don't play, your ranking slowly decrease (overall ranking and racial ranking).

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Christer



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 15, 2017 - 14:21
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I don't particularly like decaying rankings. What the site does, instead, is to hide people from the top lists (and from CR bracketing consideration) after a set amount of time.
Christer



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 15, 2017 - 14:29
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And on a different topic, I just pushed a couple of fixes (and am currently rerunning the CR update script):

- The TD effect is reduced somewhat, making S=0.9 or 0.1 for a 1 TD differential and 1.0 or 0 for 2 or more TD difference. This was reduced from +3 TDs required for full CR effect.

- A correction for where the racial rankings were compared to your opponent's CR for that race. Now it's compared to the opponent's divisional overall instead (which makes more sense). The option would have been to use the racial CR for the race the opponent was using, but that would penalize some races that are naturally lower CR.

- Another correction which was causing all sorts of crazyness. CR changes didn't propagate properly to the next match, making things very odd.

- A fix for how the CR bracket k-value amplification is performed. Instead of looking straight at TD difference to identify a win, tie or loss, it now compares the actual outcome to the expected one (e.g. looking if (S-p) is positive or negative) and amplifies for large upsets, and dampens for very obvious outcomes (ie, a high bracket player winning against a low bracket one).

In addition to that, I have added a whole bunch of data to the coach ranking history database table, allowing me to look at specifics in terms of why CR was changed the way it did for a given match.

As I mentioned, the CR updater script is currently running. The initial localized numbers appear correct now at least, but I will continue to look at the results of the recalculation to see if things need further modification.

If you find a match or coach that has an odd CR, please let me know and I'll take a look at the details.
Ghorgrix



Joined: Nov 04, 2015

Post   Posted: Oct 15, 2017 - 14:40 Reply with quote Back to top

Really thank you Christer for all the work you do for this site !

I am not that much attached to ranking though it is quite satisfying to see it increase Wink.

Nevertheless, I am really against the use of the net TD difference in the calculation, as it will all the more be in favour of agile teams.
With dwarves or Khemris, you very rarely get better than +1 net TD.
JellyBelly



Joined: Jul 08, 2009

Post   Posted: Oct 15, 2017 - 14:49 Reply with quote Back to top

Is there any chance of bringing back the page that showed the matrix of racial average win %s against each other at different TV-levels? It would be very interesting to see where it ends up with the newer BB2016 rules.

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Christer



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 15, 2017 - 19:39
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I've been looking at the matches and CR changes and have decided to make an additional change. This time, I've changed how much CR difference matters in the expected win probability of a match. Before the change, the site estimated a CR 220.5 coach to beat a CR 150.0 coach 75% of the time. That is of course wildly inaccurate, and I have adjusted some things to make that estimate slightly more reasonable.

Thus, the update script is running yet again.
The_Murker



Joined: Jan 30, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 15, 2017 - 19:43 Reply with quote Back to top

Were they both using orks?
Also.. is there even such a thing as a 220 CR coach?

I would just argue that a '600 games played' 150 coach WOULD beat any other coach at least 25% of the time, if they were both using 1000 TV orks.

And any 220 CR coach is either a unicorn, a guy with an admin client, or a really-really good cherry-picker.

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Joost



Joined: Mar 17, 2014

Post   Posted: Oct 15, 2017 - 20:09 Reply with quote Back to top

Or nostradamus
Woodstock



Joined: Dec 11, 2004

Post   Posted: Oct 15, 2017 - 22:22
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The_Murker wrote:
Were they both using orks?
Also.. is there even such a thing as a 220 CR coach?

I would just argue that a '600 games played' 150 coach WOULD beat any other coach at least 25% of the time, if they were both using 1000 TV orks.

And any 220 CR coach is either a unicorn, a guy with an admin client, or a really-really good cherry-picker.


Estimate. Does not mean it happened.
Christer



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Oct 16, 2017 - 00:03
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The last change overtightened things slightly, so I have loosened it a bit and am yet again running the update script. After this pass, I'll leave it as-is for a while and do a slightly longer evaluation of the updates.
Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: Oct 16, 2017 - 03:32 Reply with quote Back to top

Hey Christer. Something is off by quite a bit. Almost none of my game numbers are showing. For example, I have played over 100 games with one high elf team. However, on my rankings page it shows I have played a total of 20 high elf games (ranked and box combined.)

The latest fix has stripped a ton of games from my record.
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 16, 2017 - 03:34 Reply with quote Back to top

they're still processing. Hold your horses.

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Kondor



Joined: Apr 04, 2008

Post   Posted: Oct 16, 2017 - 03:34 Reply with quote Back to top

Strange because this does not even reflect recent games because while I have played my high elves regularly recently, the system is showing that I have more pro elf games. I have not used the pro elf team in a very long time.
tussock



Joined: May 29, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 16, 2017 - 04:08 Reply with quote Back to top

Yeah, it does the old matches first, so it's snapshots of your historical CR as it processes.

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Tzij



Joined: May 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Oct 16, 2017 - 04:54 Reply with quote Back to top

The most recent script is now complete. If you haven't played a match in some time, your position won't appear. Not sure what that length of time is.
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