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AzraelEVA



Joined: Nov 14, 2015

Post   Posted: Dec 05, 2020 - 10:25 Reply with quote Back to top

Garion wrote:

Sorry I'm not with you. Sneaky Git you only get sent off if you roll a double on injury. You do not get sent off if you roll a double on armour.

Odds of rolling a double are 1/6 =16.6'%
After that you need to calculate - argue the call...

They are calculating the odds of a send off with the probability of not breaking armor with and without sneaky git.
dabassman



Joined: Feb 17, 2006

Post   Posted: Dec 05, 2020 - 13:12 Reply with quote Back to top

Garion wrote:
Don't forget goblins start with dp now. And can get sg after 1 skill. For their perfect player. A significant boost to gobos


That Ooligan has to score 2 Td´s and make a successful pass to choose sneaky git. Meanwhile you can foul with the naked Looney (will be difficult for him to get sneaky git, let alone dirty player).
Doable, but definitely harder than scoring with a Pogoer.

edit: only 2 TD´s (for 6SSP)


Last edited by dabassman on Dec 05, 2020 - 15:17; edited 1 time in total
Balle2000



Joined: Sep 25, 2008

Post   Posted: Dec 05, 2020 - 13:28 Reply with quote Back to top


Fouling is broken, coaches are moaning
Blackorc has spoken, yous foul like a turd

(mel: Cat Stevens)

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argos_72



Joined: Mar 02, 2007

Post   Posted: Dec 05, 2020 - 23:00 Reply with quote Back to top

Garion wrote:
argos_72 wrote:
Foho wrote:
Probability of getting sent off with 100% armor break foul:
It's 1/6 with sneaky git
It's 1/6 + 5/6*1/6 (11/36).
So slightly under 2/3. By doing 1/6+1/6 you calculate one of the outcome twice (the one where you roll double twice).


You are right... definitively I need to open and refresh my book of statistics. [...]

So the correct formula to calculate a "double" rolling N times 2D6 is
P(make double with Rolls 1) + (P not making a double with roll 1 and make a doble with roll number 2)
+ P(not making a double with roll 1) P (not making a double with roll2) and (P making a double with roll 3) +
.... + P (not making a double with roll 1) ...P(not making a double with roll (N-1) and P (making double with roll N)

= *1/6 + 5/6*1/6 + 5/6*5/6*1/6 + ..... + [(5/6)EXP(N-1)]*1/6

N=1 ---> P=1/6 =16,6%
N=2 --> P = 1/6 + (5/6)*(1/6) = 1/6 + 5/36 = 11/36 = 30,5% (so less than 1/3)


Sorry I'm not with you. Sneaky Git you only get sent off if you roll a double on injury. You do not get sent off if you roll a double on armour.

Odds of rolling a double are 1/6 =16.6'%
After that you need to calculate - argue the call...


Yes of course in my calculation I did not include SG or break armour. Just the probability to be sent off if you break armour rool qith 100% the case and without SG is 1/6 + 5/6*1/6.
On this I think everybody now agree Confused Smile
Ciao and thanks for the usefull discussion. Nobody can improve without some criticism
ciao!
Garion



Joined: Aug 19, 2009

Post   Posted: Dec 06, 2020 - 07:39 Reply with quote Back to top

AzraelEVA wrote:
Garion wrote:

Sorry I'm not with you. Sneaky Git you only get sent off if you roll a double on injury. You do not get sent off if you roll a double on armour.

Odds of rolling a double are 1/6 =16.6'%
After that you need to calculate - argue the call...

They are calculating the odds of a send off with the probability of not breaking armor with and without sneaky git.


Yup I got that. I was just pointing this out -


argos_72 wrote:
]

Yes of course in my calculation I did not include SG...

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