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intrepidwilson



Joined: Feb 09, 2020

Post 8 Posted: Jan 20, 2024 - 19:52 Reply with quote Back to top

Maybe I'm a sore loser, maybe I'm a terrible coach, I don't know - maybe both. But what in the hell has happened to my teams in the past matches...?


1. Black Rock Beasts v Bosna Boyzzz
Orc v Orc
, White Isle League
1 MNG, 1 -AG, 3 Big 'Un blockers out of the game by T4 and the game was over by T6 with just 5 players left on the pitch! Just insane...

Skulls = 23% v 13%
Pows / Pow Pushes = 20% v 35% - why is this 75% higher?
Successful Blocks = 40% v 65% - why is this 60% higher?
Injury rolls of 9+ = 14% v 39% - why is this 2.8 times higher?
Failed dodges = 43% v100%


2. Broekwater Reavers v Carcassonne Legionnaires
Human v Human
, Draft League Europe 2020
1 MNG, 1 niggle, 1 dead that was saved by the Apo and a team that I've taken over and have been skilled really poorly. Only lost 2-0 but felt like I had lost by T7.

Skulls = 25% v 16%
Pows / Pow Pushes = 26% v 32%
Successful Blocks = 59% v 63%
Injury rolls of 9+ = 4% v 12% - why is this 3 times higher?
Failed dodges = 43% v 50%


3. Rottfurt Rams v Anglican Priests
Chaos v Underworld
, Friendly
Finished with 5 players on the pitch, 1 dead, 1 MNG, 2 niggles. 51 blocks to 30. Lost 4-0!

Skulls = 14% v 9%
Pows / Pow Pushes = 35% v 33%
Successful Blocks = 63% v 63%
Injury rolls of 9+ = 8% v 20% - why is this 2.5 times higher?
Failed dodges = 100% v 24%


Admittedly, against more experienced coaches with arguably better developed teams than mine, but I can accept losing to the better coach / team but this was insane.

I'm (mostly) competitive when it comes to block dice rolls but the armour rolls and injury rolls are making me want to smash my laptop...

Both advice or commiserations are welcome to help me avoid losing my cool.
Dynamix



Joined: Jan 21, 2009

Post   Posted: Jan 20, 2024 - 20:29 Reply with quote Back to top

This is not unusual in my experience . It is difficult to accept a long run of perceived bad luck. Ive been ready to quit on more than one occasion , rage deleting nearly all my teams.

Then comes acceptance that bad rolls and runs happen, that my skill is at best mediocre and there a so many more coaches on FUMBBL with more 'chops' than i have.
RDaneel



Joined: Feb 24, 2023

Post   Posted: Jan 21, 2024 - 01:19 Reply with quote Back to top

look
These are negative sequences that happen to everyone even the best. If you want to make a statistic you have to play a lot of games. This game sometimes makes you angry you have to take it philosophically. As for the DLE game don't consider it, the team is not what you would have made you inherited it and we were starting with a very important TV gap (-290K!) these are not the games that should be taken as statistics. On the orcs I couldn't tell you

On the last match Chaos vs UW i watched the 1st half and I can tell you following points
In general: Chaos is a Tiers3 team and the UW are top 1 OP. So is a challenging match

You started with 11 player and 1 Mino which vs UW is challenging (as they are 16)
I think the minotaur on chaos mid-low TV is inadvisable (but that's my idea) because it is unreliable and with light armor. Much better to have 4 nice blockers MB and also 3-4 CLAW B or MB beast and then you can eventually think to Mino or Troll )

Anyway until turn 3 1st half you were little bit unlucky with removals (you made a triple skull against a snots this is unlucky little to do) but you risked a surf in turn 2 if he hadn't missed the pick up.

He didn't play well either (the snots throw on turn 3 is terrible and it didn't even die on him) but in sum up to turn 3 both of you were without KO or BH (indeed he loses a snots for a failed dodge from the tackle and good thing).

Then turn 3 is good for you but you keep the tackler beast away from his snots and goblins (you don't exploit that T much--that's a pity). Good blitz with the Blocker you kill his goblin at the end of the turn ... however maybe you push yourself too far ahead in his pitch: the UW can be very fast that rat if he runs away you don't catch him anymore i would have stayed back a bit (especially if you don't have tackler to blitz the rat with).

turn 4 for him a little lucky but no big deal . you can still close him down... but 4 blockers all around his troll is not a good idea imo. They stand too crowded you don't defend on large mesh and he is faster than you. I know why you do this because you want to kill the troll but this will be a trap and we will see later why.

The block on the catcher stat freak block with a single die with simple lino is wrong. btw this catcher MA9 Block Cannoneer is the key of the game with the gutter you have to mark and hope he dodge and kill himself. Dont' care about the troll .

Turn 4/5 he was able to escape. At the moment he suffer 2 goblin KO and 1 BH and you have 1 Loner BH (who cares but you dont have reserve.... this is another point to consider)

turn 5/5 you insist to try to kill the troll i count 6 of your player close to the troll who is on the opposite field of the gutter. UW will score and could even stall little but, this in my opinion is the key of the match. focusing to kill the troll defocus you to the strategic imperative which is to kill as many snots as possible (with your tackler) and over all try to stop the ballkeeper to score... but all your team now is light years far away from the gutter. Then have a ST4 Blocker Dirty player is quite dangerous in my opinion if you do not have 13-14 players: in case ref ban the player you miss 130K guy (and remember Troll can regenerate)... this is bloat. But anyway thx to the "big cow" you can also KO another guy: Turn 5 he has 5 players out you 1. but your team is far away now.

turn 6
The key of the match: another foul on the troll double 1 on the armour roll and goodbye to a blocker 130K : You cannot risk this when you have already 1 player out and you play vs UW (he has some KO but an avalanche of snots) Here you will suffer the other drives...

Turn 7: he did 3 2D block on a blocker: 1st push back pusch back, second push back push back 3rd POW: CAS (killed BH for me is the same : is out). You can consider this unlucky but a couple of CAS every 10 armour roll is not so rare
So here you can consider bad luck but this is the reason why you did not have to risk the foul on turn 6 with a heavy positional. Now with 2 Blocker ST4 permanently out the situation is really compromised
(note: the beast Tackler always far away from the snots... you have to use this tackler as a snots killer)

turn 8 you do not block the snots with the tackler (always worried about killing the troll Who is tough to kill anyway (AV10 with regeneration...)


Second half: you start 8 vs 13 (with 2 Blockers and 1 beast out ... so a part the loner the two blockers out are heavy). Playing in such condition (with the Mino who is totally unreliable) vs 13 UW (with Gutter, Catcher, Troll and Blitzer in the pitch) believe me is mission impossible. You don't have anything to reproach on you on the second half you were starting from a desperate situation. But the genesis of the catastrophe should be sought in the first half.... At the end you suffered also another couple of CAS (Mino i told you AV is light...)
A the end you can blame little bit the statistics because in effect he did only 61 blocks and he did 5 CAS, where you blocked 127 times (two times more) ... but in term of armour roll you did 39 he did 25 ( so not two times more, probably you blocked several snots or goblins who escaped with dodge this is because is important the tackle)

So the die was unfortunate for you? Yes. But till the Blocker sent off in 1st half the match was quite balanced. the catastrophe started in the second half where you were playing 8 against 13, and frankly there it's impossible


Now I am not a great coach but I am very self-critical of myself I have learned to understand what mistakes I make. I can't tell you what would have been the best moves in the first half but against the UW you need caution they are so strong.... So don't focus on the bad dice you had. This can happen. The key of the match is the strategic choice we do (in average)

I hope this can give you a little more confidence and courage. With a little practice you will see results!

ciao

see you soon in DLE league for the "rematch!"
ciao!

_________________
To judge a man, one must at least know the secret of his thoughts, his misfortunes, his emotions, Balzac
intrepidwilson



Joined: Feb 09, 2020

Post   Posted: Jan 21, 2024 - 07:57 Reply with quote Back to top

RDaneel wrote:
see you soon in DLE league for the "rematch!"


Thank you for the detailed analysis.

I've only recently been marking up players' skills and so often focus on trying to gain an advantage here - e.g. Block v No block. But I've not paid as much attention to the increased stats. You mentioned the MA9 Gutter Runner and I didn't really notice him until the middle of the first half.

I knew that I was going to lose when I accepted the match in Game Finder because the coach has played 1000+ matches (ten times more than me) and his team had a higher TV, more games, more skills, etc. So I'm not going into the game with unrealistic expectations.

- Yes - I should really have ignored the troll...
- I didn't use the Tackler too much because he doesn't have Block - maybe I should risk it more often.
- I have a tendency to over-commit in search of a sack when I can use one flank of the pitch rather than both.
- I only really foul when I'm frustrated but, yes, I didn't need to do it then.
- I had no idea UW were considered to be so good; to me, they look very fragile but not fragile enough!

Grazie mille!
RDaneel



Joined: Feb 24, 2023

Post   Posted: Jan 21, 2024 - 10:42 Reply with quote Back to top

you're welcome!
For skills marking i find quite usefull the automathic marking: https://fumbbl.com/help:AutomaticMarking
https://fumbbl.com/p/clientoptions

To check the statistics of the most powerful races you can look here
https://fumbbl.com/p/rosterstats (year to date)
https://fumbbl.com/p/rosterstats?y=2024&m=1 (2024: year, m=1 january)

in the last month you can see surpsirly snots in top list. The reason is quite simple : look some match of this team
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?op=view&team_id=1056489
or this team
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?op=view&showmatches=1&team_id=1090061

expecially in Game finder stunties teams can be very nasty over all if they can enjoy by inducements (NEVER accept a game vs a stunty team if they are underdog for more than 400k... a part if you are spammed by tackler and maybe have also you 12-13 players). UW is not to be considered Stunty is really strong. Even a bad player like can have a 64% win rate with UW. I don't play so often because i don't like a lot... but if you play correctly (escape the gutter, hit with the bliter, foul with a snots SnGit: they can massacrate easily also Orc teams).

for an overview of the roster classment look also here https://fumbbl.com/p/boxtrophy --> Rules.
Christer defined a tiers level for team from Tiers1 to Tiers 6 (so more expanded w/r the one indicated in BB2020 user manual). In general the higher is the number the more "challenging" (mean difficult to play) the team. Does not mean that you lose more frequently (Vampires Tiers4 if played correctly can be super nasty: look these gentlemen how they use
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?id=1146029
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?team_id=1158497
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?team_id=1143898
)
...but in general are more complicated.
Chaos, Khorne can be difficult for instance. I must use Khorne for trophy but for me they are really rubbish (expecially at mid/low TV). Evena well-known very experienced fumbbl coach who usually only activates dwarves, orcs and wood elves has recently - to everyone's surprise - started using Khorne and his win rate has plummeted miserably.

Last but not least my suggestion if you want to have "fair" games don't use gamefinder to search for games. Most of very expert coaches use to cherry pick. If someone offer you a game in gamefinder and this someone is a Megastar or a Legend 99% of the case he is offering you a match which is unbalance (on his favour).
The best is you create and activate 4-5 team in the box (with TV from 920 - 1200) Tiers 1, Tiers2. You play only 15 games (no more: also there unfortunately you can find some coach who min max exploiting the lack of redraft to the extreme: and believe me playing a 1500 TV orc teamwith 1-2 skill spread over the team vs a 1500 TV orc team with 1 monster MA8 blodge ss blitzer, some MB BUB and several linos is not easy...) but in general if you stay in the range of 0-15 games within the box by activating 4-5 teams tiers1-2 your win rate will increase believe me. (I'm not suggesting you cheat, but everyone does it, why don't you do it too so you can increase your win rate a bit and get your smile back)

viel Glück !
ciao!

_________________
To judge a man, one must at least know the secret of his thoughts, his misfortunes, his emotions, Balzac
marckfu



Joined: Apr 29, 2020

Post   Posted: Jan 21, 2024 - 11:09 Reply with quote Back to top

Yeah I just rained ones the dice machine on this is crackers almost caused me to bin it. I take the view now if I can play with these dice then playing with real dice is easy. Train hard fight easy. I certainly won't be besmirching my NAF record with it though. Keep the faith brother Smile
MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: Jan 21, 2024 - 11:32 Reply with quote Back to top

RDaneel wrote:

In general: Chaos is a Tiers3 team and the UW are top 1 OP. So is a challenging match

Chaos is tier 2, not 3. That said, UW are better than Chaos.

RDaneel wrote:

Evena well-known very experienced fumbbl coach who usually only activates dwarves, orcs and wood elves has recently - to everyone's surprise - started using Khorne and his win rate has plummeted miserably.

For accuracy's sake, that coach activates High Elves, Dwarfs, Chaos Dwarfs, Dark Elves, Khorne, Orcs, Wood Elves, Elven Union, Undead, Tomb Kings.
His overall win rate is still 71%, with Khorne is 55.76% and top 4 in the Box with that race.
Not great, true, but I would not say "plummeted miserably", especially considering that the Khorne team has played 26 games. It's not a race supposed to perform well early, due to lack of core skills.

RDaneel wrote:

Last but not least my suggestion if you want to have "fair" games don't use gamefinder to search for games. Most of very expert coaches use to cherry pick. If someone offer you a game in gamefinder and this someone is a Megastar or a Legend 99% of the case he is offering you a match which is unbalance (on his favour).

Golden words! Box is the best way to find games.
intrepidwilson



Joined: Feb 09, 2020

Post   Posted: Jan 21, 2024 - 19:01 Reply with quote Back to top

Box?
MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: Jan 21, 2024 - 19:08 Reply with quote Back to top

intrepidwilson wrote:
Box?

Yes, you can find it here:

https://fumbbl.com/p/lfg2

Check on top left, 5 minutes before each hour's quarter a "Join the Draw" button appears.
Click on it and one of your selected-for-the-Box teams could get randomly paired by TV (generally close) with another coach's team.
A scheduler does it automatically.

More details here: https://fumbbl.com/help:Blackbox

There is a rookie team protection, a team with 15 or fewer games can be paired only with a team with 15 or fewer games. When a team is 16-game old this restriction is not enabled anymore and you could find a TV gap match (most of times the TV gap is small, though).
MerryZ



Joined: Nov 28, 2005

Post   Posted: Jan 21, 2024 - 19:16 Reply with quote Back to top

Funny to call it rookie protection when its mostly played only by teams of 0-15 games.

After that its just not that competitive and mostly used for teambuilding.

_________________
Kaptain Awasoam, Dicer of All Men and Women and Children and Puppies.
dementor42



Joined: Oct 27, 2017

Post   Posted: Jan 22, 2024 - 00:31 Reply with quote Back to top

Real rookie protection is matching by games played, and games won at that.
Those teams only last 4 games for some reason (open 24/7)
MerryZ



Joined: Nov 28, 2005

Post   Posted: Jan 22, 2024 - 07:38 Reply with quote Back to top

4 games is enough to se who is bestest.

_________________
Kaptain Awasoam, Dicer of All Men and Women and Children and Puppies.
ben_awesome



Joined: May 11, 2016

Post   Posted: Apr 01, 2024 - 08:22 Reply with quote Back to top

honestly I think the random element of the rng is so bad it'll shit on you for x games in row before giving you a light at the end of the tunnel then shitting on you again and destroying your desire to play on the site.

It really is that bad.
koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: Apr 01, 2024 - 09:30 Reply with quote Back to top

ben_awesome wrote:
honestly I think the random element of the rng is so bad it'll shit on you for x games in row before giving you a light at the end of the tunnel then shitting on you again and destroying your desire to play on the site.

It really is that bad.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/01/germany-invoke-rule-stop-harry-kane-playing-england-euros/

_________________
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O[L]C 2016 Swiss! - April ---- All Star Bowl - Teams of Stars - 2 more teams needed
ben_awesome



Joined: May 11, 2016

Post   Posted: Apr 01, 2024 - 09:50 Reply with quote Back to top

koadah wrote:
ben_awesome wrote:
honestly I think the random element of the rng is so bad it'll shit on you for x games in row before giving you a light at the end of the tunnel then shitting on you again and destroying your desire to play on the site.

It really is that bad.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/01/germany-invoke-rule-stop-harry-kane-playing-england-euros/


Edit: I'm talking from an emotional point of view, I know the rng isn't biased but given my friends call me the statistical anomaly that has to exist to roll the bad dice I get butt hurt when my opponent -2ds me constantly and I cant knock him down at all.


I also rolled 36 ones in my last game.
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