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2015-12-16 06:10:33
12 votes, rating 3.5
12 votes, rating 3.5
Cash Flow
As noted previously, I have had some frustration with injuries on the dark elf team I am attempting to build. Complicating this has been a continually depleted treasury which makes replacing team members difficult. To determine if this was bad luck on my winnings rolls, I dug into the math of the mostly random cash reward at the end of a match. Warning! Math incoming!
[MATH]
Winnings = (d6 + FAME) * 10k gp
Additional 10k gp if win or tie
Winner may reroll d6
FAME is equal to 0 or 1 (occasionally 2)
d6 = 3.5 on average
Average Winnings
Note: The table above assumes victorious coaches reroll 1's & 2's. The win column increases by 2.5k if you reroll 1's 2's & 3's instead.
Winning is worth 15k (or 18.5k) more than a loss. Due to the way that FAME is calculated, average actual winnings for a victorious coach are about 56k (estimate) per match. Therefore, most linemen cost 1 match, rookie elf blitzers cost about 2 matches, and fully developed players can reach values of 5 matches fairly often.
[/MATH]
The analysis led to a few conclusions. First, my luck on the dark elf team had been pretty bad, but I think I am getting past the worst of it. That's how Blood Bowl is sometimes. Second, winning isn't worth much from a cash perspective. Unlike almost every other dice roll in Blood Bowl, +1 is better than a reroll. Third, all teams get roughly the same amount of cash per match. This means that Elves have the same cash flow as Orcs assuming identical records (win/tie/loss) and even distribution of FAME and winnings rolls.
Sal-utations
[MATH]
Winnings = (d6 + FAME) * 10k gp
Additional 10k gp if win or tie
Winner may reroll d6
FAME is equal to 0 or 1 (occasionally 2)
d6 = 3.5 on average
Average Winnings
| win | tie | loss | |
| FAME0 | 50k | 45k | 35k |
| FAME1 | 60k | 55k | 45k |
| FAME2 | 70k | 65k | 55k |
Note: The table above assumes victorious coaches reroll 1's & 2's. The win column increases by 2.5k if you reroll 1's 2's & 3's instead.
Winning is worth 15k (or 18.5k) more than a loss. Due to the way that FAME is calculated, average actual winnings for a victorious coach are about 56k (estimate) per match. Therefore, most linemen cost 1 match, rookie elf blitzers cost about 2 matches, and fully developed players can reach values of 5 matches fairly often.
[/MATH]
The analysis led to a few conclusions. First, my luck on the dark elf team had been pretty bad, but I think I am getting past the worst of it. That's how Blood Bowl is sometimes. Second, winning isn't worth much from a cash perspective. Unlike almost every other dice roll in Blood Bowl, +1 is better than a reroll. Third, all teams get roughly the same amount of cash per match. This means that Elves have the same cash flow as Orcs assuming identical records (win/tie/loss) and even distribution of FAME and winnings rolls.
Sal-utations
Comments
Posted by the_Sage on 2015-12-16 09:02:57
Reroll 3s too. =)
Posted by happygrue on 2015-12-16 12:53:09
It's also worth noting that you can help hedge against bad winnings by assuming they will happen in streaks (at times). If you assume that you will have trouble with cash (at least until you build up a reserve) then you can try these to help take fewer losses:
Give up fewer blocks. Your last three games you gave up about 45 blocks each game. While sometimes you have to give up that may blocks while playing to win, USUALLY that is too many. You can give up fewer blocks by being careful about who and where you block and blitz (and where they get pushed) and who dodges where. Elves are quite adept at avoiding damage as they tend to have both skills and mobility. Sometimes you have to wade in there, but other times you can get the same results WITHOUT taking so many hits.
Also: Keep that -ma lino around and put him on the LOS. Keeping injured players is completely worth it from a cash flow point of view. Consider what happens if you fire and replace him, then the replacement gets hit again next game... Some injuries are worse than others (don't keep -st around). Firing the -ma blitzer is worth it, but -ma on a lino that is probably going to sit on the LOS and take hits can work well for your bottom line. When he gets a second injury, fire and replace.
Give up fewer blocks. Your last three games you gave up about 45 blocks each game. While sometimes you have to give up that may blocks while playing to win, USUALLY that is too many. You can give up fewer blocks by being careful about who and where you block and blitz (and where they get pushed) and who dodges where. Elves are quite adept at avoiding damage as they tend to have both skills and mobility. Sometimes you have to wade in there, but other times you can get the same results WITHOUT taking so many hits.
Also: Keep that -ma lino around and put him on the LOS. Keeping injured players is completely worth it from a cash flow point of view. Consider what happens if you fire and replace him, then the replacement gets hit again next game... Some injuries are worse than others (don't keep -st around). Firing the -ma blitzer is worth it, but -ma on a lino that is probably going to sit on the LOS and take hits can work well for your bottom line. When he gets a second injury, fire and replace.
Posted by tmoila on 2015-12-16 13:19:56
For highest EV of winnings roll, [url=https://fumbbl.com/p/blog&c=tmoila&id=17572]reroll all rolls under 4[/url]
Posted by akaRenton on 2015-12-16 22:06:22
Be zombies, then stop worrying about cashflow :D
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?team_id=748011
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?team_id=748011
Posted by m0gw41 on 2015-12-17 16:46:33
-MA and to some degree -AG linos are fine as LoS fodder. Some more fun stats for you to mull on if you like Elf Maths:
I keep track on my elf player losses on this box team, currently at 30 permed/dead players in 47 games (plus 10 dead/permed JMs):
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?team_id=806143
On average I am running at a 40k per match spend on dead/retired players, 47k per game if I was to retire my two injured blitzers and catcher. [/STATS]
Cash flow was harder at the start but we've finally gone into surplus.
I keep track on my elf player losses on this box team, currently at 30 permed/dead players in 47 games (plus 10 dead/permed JMs):
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?team_id=806143
On average I am running at a 40k per match spend on dead/retired players, 47k per game if I was to retire my two injured blitzers and catcher. [/STATS]
Cash flow was harder at the start but we've finally gone into surplus.
Posted by fidius on 2015-12-18 20:37:52
It's tricky to develop an alternative cash system for this game but the elements I would like to see in a future ruleset are:
1) less variance. d6 is a really wide range, even if the averages are similar.
2) teams with higher replacement costs should get more cash
3) fan factor should mean more to winnings
1) less variance. d6 is a really wide range, even if the averages are similar.
2) teams with higher replacement costs should get more cash
3) fan factor should mean more to winnings